March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis

Damn CP. You're getting a little salty as time goes on.

crippo84 wrote:

frank 638 wrote:lee was saying for brooklyn there can be 10 inches while the bronx can have near 20 inches of snow

I live on the west side of Manhattan - Hells Kitchen.  My girl lives in Brooklyn.  She wants me to come and get snowed in at her place. I think I'm going to pass so I can avoid the changeover as much as possible.

Yes this fascination with snow is sickening. Not sure how I'll ever be able to explain it so thinking of a different excuse.

No way lol. Southern Queens and Brooklyn stay away.

Doesn't make sense but NWS has me in Syosset for 3-5" tonight and 9-13" tomorrow with mixing. Probability is for me to expect 15". Totally does not jive with today's runs

hurrysundown23 wrote:Tonight
Snow, mainly after midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 28. Northeast wind 7 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

TuesdaySnow.
The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. High near 33. Windy, with a northeast wind 30 to 32 mph, with gusts as high as 49 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 16 inches possible.

This the most updated from NOAA again no rain or sleet swhich to me is SWEET...SAYREVILLE TO GET PUNDED FOLKS!

for me

Tonight Snow, mainly after 1am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 24. Light and variable wind becoming northeast 5 to 8 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Tuesday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. High near 28. Blustery, with a northeast wind 18 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 14 to 20 inches possible.

Tuesday Night Snow showers likely, mainly before 7pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow after 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 17. Northwest wind 13 to 18 mph decreasing to 7 to 12 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

TheAresian wrote:Damn CP. You're getting a little salty as time goes on.

Just having some fun.

This storm is driving me over the edge. I apologize to anyone in advance for anything I may have done wrong during the last 5 days.

syosnow94 wrote:Doesn't make sense but NWS has me in Syosset for 3-5" tonight and 9-13" tomorrow with mixing. Probability is for me to expect 15". Totally does not jive with today's runs

Yeah NWS been sticking with the big snow numbers.
They did drop tues forecast for me from 12 - 16 to 10 -14 plus possible ice.
But they have up to 7 inches tonight now so it comes out about the same.

I with you on the over the edge part and I don't have nearly as much riding on it as you guys do.

final countdown for Frank's final call lol

RJB8525 wrote:

hurrysundown23 wrote:Tonight
Snow, mainly after midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 28. Northeast wind 7 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

TuesdaySnow.
The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. High near 33. Windy, with a northeast wind 30 to 32 mph, with gusts as high as 49 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 16 inches possible.

This the most updated from NOAA again no rain or sleet swhich to me is SWEET...SAYREVILLE TO GET PUNDED FOLKS!

for me

Tonight Snow, mainly after 1am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 24. Light and variable wind becoming northeast 5 to 8 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Tuesday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. High near 28. Blustery, with a northeast wind 18 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 14 to 20 inches possible.

Tuesday Night Snow showers likely, mainly before 7pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow after 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 17. Northwest wind 13 to 18 mph decreasing to 7 to 12 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Tonight
Snow likely, mainly after 2am. The snow could be heavy at times. Increasing clouds, with a low around 26. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. Southeast wind 6 to 9 mph becoming east after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Tuesday
Snow and sleet before 3pm, then snow between 3pm and 5pm, then snow likely, possibly mixed with freezing drizzle after 5pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow after 9am. Temperature falling to around 26 by 5pm. Wind chill values between 10 and 15. Windy, with a northeast wind 26 to 31 mph increasing to 32 to 37 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible.

Tuesday Night
Snow and freezing drizzle likely before 11pm, then a chance of snow between 11pm and 4am. Areas of blowing snow before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Wind chill values between 10 and 15. Blustery, with a northwest wind 20 to 25 mph decreasing to 11 to 16 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

syosnow94 wrote:Doesn't make sense but NWS has me in Syosset for 3-5" tonight and 9-13" tomorrow with mixing. Probability is for me to expect 15". Totally does not jive with today's runs

hopefully they know something

For posterity (and since we are all just sitting here and drinking//waiting for Frank to post) here is mine for Hopatcong NJ:

Tonight Snow, mainly after midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 23. Light and variable wind becoming northeast 5 to 8 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Tuesday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. High near 27. Blustery, with a north wind 21 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 13 to 19 inches possible.

Ok I had to look too. 20-30 inches from tonight till tomorrow. One of the best forecasts for me since the Feb 2010 Snowicane. Hope they're right.

Tonight
Snow likely, mainly after 1am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 21. Wind chill values between 10 and 15. Light and variable wind becoming east 5 to 7 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Tuesday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. High near 24. Wind chill values between 5 and 10. Blustery, with a north wind 17 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 16 to 22 inches possible.

Tuesday Night
Snow likely, mainly before 8pm. Areas of blowing snow before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15. Wind chill values between 5 and 10. Northwest wind 9 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

I like mine for Franklin Lakes
Tonight Snow likely, mainly after 2am. The snow could be heavy at times. Increasing clouds, with a low around 22. Southeast wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Tuesday Snow before 5pm, then snow likely, possibly mixed with freezing drizzle. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow after 9am. High near 26. Wind chill values between 10 and 15. Blustery, with a northeast wind 17 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow accumulation of 16 to 22 inches possible.

18z GFS time...One of the few models left that makes everyone happy with very little mixing lol

Lee Goldberg still has me in 12-24 range.....Rayno was leaning 6-12.....this is a huge range....am I missing something??

Anyone 15 plus miles Due West and north of Manhattan should stay all snow. For the city and nearby Western and Northern suburbs is going to be some mixing probably with sleet not rain which would cut accumulations down some but still a solid snowfall for them. all the areas East and Southeast and even Northeast into Southern Connecticut needs the storm to shift 25 or so miles to see big snows. This is still possible with the storm this intense. It's going to be crazy watching the rain snow line tomorrow

18z GFS slightly west and warmer

850mb still much colder than NAM though

State of NJ offices are closed tomorrow!

If this thing is going to tick east at the last minute, it's going to be at the absolute very last minute.

SENJsnowman wrote:

aiannone wrote:Mt holly going all snow and expanded Blizzard Warnings

I saw that...they still have Toms River and a bit south as all snow and 7-13" total. Don't see how that can last through the next update. Jake, Jerzee, Track and Larry, there's a ray of hope!


Edit: Just saw we've been downgraded to WSWarning

So much hope and so much dejection in one post lol
Thank you SENJ

With ratios:

that GFS map bolds better for NYC right?

Christie declared his state of emergency

I just got off the NWS website. They actually moved the forecast track significantly east to where it was 24 hours ago. They have the low 50 miles east of Virginia Beach and then moving to the eastern tip of Cape Cod JUST west of the BM. This was issued 12z this afternoon. I NEED A MET TO EXPLAIN THIS YO ME PLEASE IF UOU CAN BECAUSE THIS WOULD BE PERCECT BUT I HAVENT AEEN IT SHOWN ALL FAY ON THIS FORUM

the 18z GFS sounding was utter ridiculous, saturated with intense omega within the DGZ from 12z to about 18z tomorrow, and even shows a convective instability profile which is supportive of thundersnow. The tricky part to this, is where does that 850mb and 700mb low track.