Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

[amugs]

Get out the Ark peeps - 9 day total of 51" JESUS!!!

[skinsfan1177]

Check this out it looks like a close call with 92L around outer banks.

[algae888]

Yikes!

yes mugs big rain maker on euro from Harvey!

[amugs]

WATCH out TEXAS you are under the gun a landfall retrograde and the ravage teh coast


EURO

[rb924119]

The ensembles are beginning to stir my interest for 92L........a bit more than before

[jmanley32]

Rb even the 18z wasn't far from a hurricane hit around 30th up here. Seems it had that passage on that run. Cmc though lost it ironically. Texas is just unbelievable 40 inches rain in some spots per models my Lord would be one worst us disasters rainfall wise.

[skinsfan1177]

Did anyone see map I posted on last page it shows 92 L

[jmanley32]

Ya euro kicks it ots though and keeps weak. On euro is what kicks Irma ots the remnants of Harvey? Anyone have a precip map of euro for us when Harvey gets up here. If of course that played out. Very interesting next 8 to 10 days or so. As u said Al very long tracking.

[Snow88]

The ensembles are beginning to stir my interest for 92L........a bit more than before

Which ensembles? The 18z GEFS didn't show anything interesting.

[amugs]

The trough from Harvey could pull Irma up the coast by tugging on her. This would be JMAN dream having 2 trop cyclones in Fujiwara mode.
From JB tonight and he has been harping on tjis. The set up , cards are being dealt, players on the field. Time wil tell

 I think trough from Harvey could capture it after it pumps ridge to the north of it. Water is very warm if it were to hug the coast past Hatteras..plenty warm where this going to try to develop

[amugs]

GFS slams Irma into the Cape aftwr scrapping the coast.
Definitely moderate tidal flooding, beach erosion, winds and rains if this happens.

[amugs]

NHC HOLY MOLLY 48 HOURS OF TROP CYCLONE OVERHEAD HESUS!!

[jmanley32]

Ha mugs, my dream well depends on HOW bad it would be. It would be amazing to see a texas system make a east coast system travel further north. Texas as of right now is really under the gun, I think Harvey may come in stronger than modeled. JB could be right, but he does like to hype.

[jmanley32]

wow 00z has a 959mb harvey make landfall. thats bout cat 2/3.

[Sanchize06]

CMC

[jmanley32]

CMC

You beat me to it, hpoly crap wow, back to this senario again.  I'll take it lol, GFS and CMC are coming into agreement to develop 92L, thougj different  track and intensity but close enough that this def looks like it COULD be a threat.


BTW, is anyone else slightly wondering where Frank is? He has not been on it a very long time, you would think he would chime in at least once in a while, I would like to hear his take.  Hope your okay Frank!

[jmanley32]

Still 989mb in central eastern PA wow!! We get smacked, mostly as it comes from the south, the heaviest rains hit further south but tis would still be pretty bad. This is a week or less away according to the CMC and GFS so, time is creeping, we will know the outcome soon enough.  Then it looks like Harvey could pose some kind of inland rain/wind event even if Irma doesnt happen for us.

[Sanchize06]

CMC

You beat me to it, hpoly crap wow, back to this senario again.  I'll take it lol, GFS and CMC are coming into agreement to develop 92L, thougj different  track and intensity but close enough that this def looks like it COULD be a threat.


BTW, is anyone else slightly wondering where Frank is? He has not been on it a very long time, you would think he would chime in at least once in a while, I would like to hear his take.  Hope your okay Frank!

Yeah, tonight's runs definitely seem to want a stronger system and one that comes further north. A scenario between the CMC and GFS would be interesting lol

[rb924119]

The ensembles are beginning to stir my interest for 92L........a bit more than before

Which ensembles? The 18z GEFS didn't show anything interesting.

12z. A few more members showing a coastal hugger or Sandy-like track THOUGH AT A MUCH WEAKER INTENSITY. At least shows my ideas may have merit. However, latest 00z GFS and CMC ops are clearly showing my ideas have merit, with much more ridging getting out ahead of 92L and in behind the departing trough. GFS took a HUGE step toward CMC imo at H5, as it is drove the central US trough deeper into the heartland and pumped heights much more out ahead and over top of 92L than prior runs (likely catching onto more latent heat release, which models are notoriously bad at until shorter ranges even IF they model the system(s) correctly). I think the EURO may come up big tonight given these trends. We shall see, but back to bed for this guy aha

[Math23x7]

BTW, is anyone else slightly wondering where Frank is? He has not been on it a very long time, you would think he would chime in at least once in a while, I would like to hear his take.  Hope your okay Frank!

Not sure about Frank but he may be fine.  I bring that up because his brother is a professional video game player and has a twitter account.  He posts frequently and has at times posted about his family.  If something serious had happened to Frank, he likely would have posted about it on there.

[rb924119]

GFS Ensemble beginning to show a bi-modal distribution with its lows now, though still much weaker than either Op or CMC. Interesting nonetheless:

[jmanley32]

The ensembles are beginning to stir my interest for 92L........a bit more than before

Which ensembles? The 18z GEFS didn't show anything interesting.

12z. A few more members showing a coastal hugger or Sandy-like track THOUGH AT A MUCH WEAKER INTENSITY. At least shows my ideas may have merit. However, latest 00z GFS and CMC ops are clearly showing my ideas have merit, with much more ridging getting out ahead of 92L and in behind the departing trough. GFS took a HUGE step toward CMC imo at H5, as it is drove the central US trough deeper into the heartland and pumped heights much more out ahead and over top of 92L than prior runs (likely catching onto more latent  heat release, which models are notoriously bad at until shorter ranges even IF they model the system(s) correctly). I think the EURO may come up big tonight given these trends. We shall see, but back to bed for this guy aha

think you may have this rb. cmc gfs euro in between, a track between cmc and gfs would be a long island or close hit. def watching the next 7 days or so.

[jmanley32]

as you said models were bad with intensity with gert and I think maybe will with this system too. if this system is supoposed to form and head up the coast in 5-7 days the NHC would start upping chances soon I would think as 5 day only at 20% now.

[Dunnzoo]

Wow, almost 2 feet of rain for Texas, they are in trouble! I'm definitely keeping an eye on next week, I am down the shore until Labor Day weekend and don't want to have to cut my vacation short. CMC is still an outlier, with GFS and Euro keeping it off the coast...

[skinsfan1177]

Looking interesting how Harvey may influence 92L

[skinsfan1177]

Tropical storm Harvey is strengthening fast may be hurricane by 11 am update

[Sanchize06]

Tropical storm Harvey is strengthening fast may be hurricane by 11 am update

Yeah, can't imagine this storm is only at 85 mph at landfall like NHC has it. Could be well over 100 mph

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