Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

by gigs68 Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:48 pm

Just heard on a news report that a new model run came in with 53" of rain for parts of Texas. Is that even possible?

by **weatherwatchermom** Fri Aug 25, 2017 3:03 pm

Harvey will come ashore as a category 3 just heard...horrible!!!!

by **nutleyblizzard** Fri Aug 25, 2017 3:21 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:Harvey will come ashore as a category 3 just heard...horrible!!!!

Harvey upgraded to Cat 3, 120 mph winds.

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Aug 25, 2017 3:22 pm

I would not be surprised if it goes cat 4

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Aug 25, 2017 3:24 pm

Looking Good 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 17 59a07110

by **Math23x7** Fri Aug 25, 2017 3:54 pm

by **weatherwatchermom** Fri Aug 25, 2017 4:18 pm

Math23x7 wrote:

is that really possible???????????????

by **RJB8525** Fri Aug 25, 2017 5:27 pm

125 winds 941mb.... good lord

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Aug 25, 2017 5:38 pm

I'm hearing reports of 140 mph 940mb can anyone confirm

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 25, 2017 5:50 pm

Dang if so cat 4 flirting cat 5. How close to landfall. I been too busy to follow kinda suxs I wanna watch.

by **rb924119** Fri Aug 25, 2017 5:50 pm

I'm sure there are gusts eclipsing that lol

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 25, 2017 5:50 pm

The other system was upped to 30 and 50.

by **rb924119** Fri Aug 25, 2017 5:53 pm

From my ex-professor:

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 17 Img_1210

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 25, 2017 5:53 pm

Uh oh 18z gfs is stronger with Irma. And headed north at obx.

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 25, 2017 5:54 pm

rb924119 wrote:From my ex-professor:

wow. Rb any updated thoughts on to b irma?

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 25, 2017 5:57 pm

18z much further west and not strung out.

by **weatherwatchermom** Fri Aug 25, 2017 5:59 pm

jmanley32 wrote:18z much further west and not strung out.

what does that mean Smile

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Aug 25, 2017 5:59 pm

jmanley32 wrote:18z much further west and not strung out.

Can you post maps jman

by **rb924119** Fri Aug 25, 2017 6:07 pm

jmanley32 wrote:18z much further west and not strung out.

It is, just does it later lol but what that shows you is that the sooner it organizes the further west it will come. Certainly further northwest than 12z, but it's an off-hour run also so I don't put much faith in it. However, I think the GFS is having issues because it makes no sense that it strengthens the system and organizes it at the surface, while completely destroying the H5 energy. No sense. Also of note is 12Z GFS Ensemble mean has a definite cluster of members slightly northwest of the 00z EURO Op, which is in agreement with its 00z suite. As for updates? Staying my course for now; I see no reason to do otherwise. I think if you extrapolated the NAM out, it would look very much like the CMC FWIW.

by **weatherwatchermom** Fri Aug 25, 2017 6:11 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:18z much further west and not strung out.

It is, just does it later lol but what that shows you is that the sooner it organizes the further west it will come. Certainly further northwest than 12z, but it's an off-hour run also so I don't put much faith in it. However, I think the GFS is having issues because it makes no sense that it strengthens the system and organizes it at the surface, while completely destroying the H5 energy. No sense. Also of note is 12Z GFS Ensemble mean has a definite cluster of members slightly northwest of the 00z EURO Op, which is in agreement with its 00z suite. As for updates? Staying my course for now; I see no reason to do otherwise. I think if you extrapolated the NAM out, it would look very much like the CMC FWIW.

rob sorry...I have been distracted by harvey posts...what is your take again on the 92l? sorry to ask...

by **rb924119** Fri Aug 25, 2017 6:12 pm

GFS Parallel Ensembles look very similar to the CMC, though I haven't been following them, so I cannot comment on whether that means anything. 12z EURO Ensemble definitely further northwest than 00z by about 100-150 miles.

by **rb924119** Fri Aug 25, 2017 6:16 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:18z much further west and not strung out.

It is, just does it later lol but what that shows you is that the sooner it organizes the further west it will come. Certainly further northwest than 12z, but it's an off-hour run also so I don't put much faith in it. However, I think the GFS is having issues because it makes no sense that it strengthens the system and organizes it at the surface, while completely destroying the H5 energy. No sense. Also of note is 12Z GFS Ensemble mean has a definite cluster of members slightly northwest of the 00z EURO Op, which is in agreement with its 00z suite. As for updates? Staying my course for now; I see no reason to do otherwise. I think if you extrapolated the NAM out, it would look very much like the CMC FWIW.

rob sorry...I have been distracted by harvey posts...what is your take again on the 92l? sorry to ask...

No worries!!! I have been worried that based on the pattern it would not only develop and threaten the Southeast Coast, but also could find its way up here given certain conditions. Here's the video I posted a few days ago if have about 20 minutes:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYMUJMX3h3NGhXcW8

Long, I know (and apologize lol) but it details exactly my thoughts on the whole scenario Smile

by **amugs** Fri Aug 25, 2017 6:41 pm

Per outage map for Texas god help the over 1 million going to go dark from wind not flooding oye veh!!

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