Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

[jmanley32]

Harvey Cat 2! 105mph winds 967mb holy cow.

[jmanley32]

Euro came ALOT closer to the area than the 12z, and a bit stronger, it really blows up into a strong storm as it passes north/east this looks like rb's and sroc idea may be really looking like a possibility.  Id watch out for a POSSIBLE tropical system next week IMO.  What do you guys think or still way to early to tell?

[skinsfan1177]

Harvey down to 950mb wow

[jmanley32]

Yeah I think 115mph is go be exceeded easily high cat 3 maybe 4 looks like now. Scary for Texas. That rain is just OMG.

[gigs68]

Anyone have good cams from south Texas?

Here's a few I found

http://www.beachcamsusa.com/tx/corpus-christi/corpus-christi-bayfront-and-marina-webcam

http://www.citynet.cc/customer-service-center/bayfront-webcam/index

http://www.bolivarpeninsulatexas.com/Webcams/Bluewater-Beach

http://www.bolivarpeninsulatexas.com/Webcams/Sunrise-Beach

[amugs]

Morning peeps.
Harvard the Texas coast wall banger is going to intensify the a CAT 4. I called a 125 plus CAT 3 on my site but underestimated him a bit. Isotherm called a CAT 4 on another site. He is Frickin genius.
Rb your fears or excitement on Irma are coming my man.
That trough in central CAN looks to be swinging into the Lower GL Tuesday ish which could spell a NNW track for Harveys GF! 
Two Hcanes effectin the US coasts at the same time?? Not a first nor a last. And IF anyone says GW or CO2 is causing this then you need to learn your histroy. 

Harvey is going to wash away those barrier islands in Texas, double landfall call by JB is real. IF he makes landfall 2x as a Major how does that count?? Two major hcane hits in 3 days?

Euro last night jumping on board

[amugs]

Yeah I think 115mph is go be exceeded easily high cat 3 maybe 4 looks like now. Scary for Texas. That rain is just OMG.

Yup
I SAW NOAH BUILDING AN ARK IF THAT IS AN ANY INDICATION

[Snow88]

CMC of 92L is possible if the trough catches up to the storm and yanks it back. Long shot but possible.

[weatherwatchermom]

omg absolutely horrifying for Texas!

Mugs what is going on with 92L?

[skinsfan1177]

CMC of 92L is possible if the trough catches up to the storm and yanks it back. Long shot but possible.

Not sure that its a long shot

[Snow88]

CMC of 92L is possible if the trough catches up to the storm and yanks it back. Long shot but possible.

Not sure that its a long shot

Any tropical system that reaches this far north is a long shot

[skinsfan1177]

Not in my eyes with the crazy weather we have had past years

[sroc4]

CMC of 92L is possible if the trough catches up to the storm and yanks it back. Long shot but possible.

Not sure that its a long shot

Any tropical system that reaches this far north is a long shot

Making that statement a month ago sure,but given the set up it def. isn't a long shot as of this am.  As models cont to trend slower with lifting 92 the better the chances.

[jmanley32]

You guys are get me a bit hyped lol. Harvey is exciting enough to watch but it is go b terrible that's thebadside of these amazing storms. Sric you go do a analysis before next week on if Irma or to possibly beirma will or won't effect us? If timing is right it's really only 5 or 6 days away.

[sroc4]

I'm in Denver right now jman with some friends so I won't be able to put together anything detailed with maps. I would say I am 40% makes it up past OBx and affects the mid Atlantic coast/S NE and 60% OTS. When I say OTS I mean as far as mid Atlantic and NE. It still can and likely will after the coast on some level from outer banks on south.

The big question marks are:
1) What and where are Harvey in the next 2-3 days
2) Intensity of Irma. Models have done an aweful job forecasting intensity.
3) positioning and interactions of Midwest trough with Harvey
4) positioning and strength of Irma with respect to currently exiting trough in the NE. Models cont to move it out faster and keep Irma further south leading to more ridge in the NE. As I out lined several days ago this last question will be vital to the steering of Irma. Does she get cutoff from the flow that would take her OTS and get picked up by the trough in the Midwest? Mid west trough orientation is just as important. Positive tilt means OTS. Neutral or neg tilt means more Ridge and a steering flow more North or northwest.

Again I don't think it's a long shot to say Irma may still affect the mid Atlantic and orb NE states but currently favor against it. We shall see.

[RJB8525]

you'd expect to see this in winter the amounts..33",12 etc...this is unbelievable

[aiannone]

Going to be a fun night tracking this storm. Too bad i'm back up at school or I would be down there haha!

[Radz]

Yeah I think 115mph is go be exceeded easily high cat 3 maybe 4 looks like now. Scary for Texas. That rain is just OMG.

946 and still dropping, Cat 3 once winds respond...

[Joe Snow]

Live Cam from South Parade Island.

http://www.beachcamsusa.com/tx/south-padre-island/live-south-padre-island-hd-cam-north-beach

[amugs]

Like I said in a post the other day Major Hcane droughtending in T minus 10  hours. He is going to be upgraded to a 3 next update and his in Al eye wall replacement is taking place. God Help the Texas Coast and inalnd folks.

[jmanley32]

12z CMC has irma by noon tomorrow, that seems unlikely no? I mean NHC only has it at 20% for rwo day and 40% for 5 day.  And 5 days models are showing it already heading up coast so I dunno whatrs going on.  Either NHC is wrong or models are.

[amugs]

JMAN,
Don't take these model verbatim, next 48 hours it should.pop as a trop cyclone so it may not be too far off. Later the better.

[weatherwatchermom]

I'm in Denver right now jman with some friends so I won't be able to put together anything detailed with maps. I would say I am 40% makes it up past OBx and affects the mid Atlantic coast/S NE and 60% OTS. When I say OTS I mean as far as mid Atlantic and NE. It still can and likely will after the coast on some level from outer banks on south.  

The big question marks are:
1) What and where are Harvey in the next 2-3 days
2) Intensity of Irma. Models have done an aweful job forecasting intensity.
3) positioning and interactions of Midwest trough with Harvey
4) positioning and strength of Irma with respect to currently exiting trough in the NE. Models cont to move it out faster and keep Irma further south leading to more ridge in the NE. As I out lined several days ago this last question will be vital to the steering of Irma. Does she get cutoff from the flow that would take her OTS and get picked up by the trough in the Midwest?  Mid west trough orientation is just as important. Positive tilt means OTS. Neutral or neg tilt means more Ridge and a steering flow more North or northwest.

Again I don't think it's a long shot to say Irma may still affect the mid Atlantic and orb NE states but currently favor against it. We shall see.

thank you for giving us an update..happy birthday to you and your friends....and happy vacation!!

[jmanley32]

Yeah sroc have fun! Thanks for ur insight. To the pt is easier for me to understand lol.

Mugs that would be quick so I'd expect nhc to bump the chances up pretty quick between now and sun. As sroc said we will see.

As for Texas all I can say is dayumm and pray for all. Seeing cat 4 possibility there.

East coast could surprise too maybe cat 1 or 2. Cat 1 would be bad up here cat 2 would b really bad here our trees were trashed by Sandy winds over 100 I couldn't even imsgine. Not gonna speculate anything though. Who knows with these models maybe goes cat 7. Lol I know there is no cat 7 a joke. And a horrible made for tv movie.

[RJB8525]

so far as of 12pm still holding at 110mph 947mb moving at 10mph

[gigs68]

Just heard on a news report that a new model run came in with 53" of rain for parts of Texas. Is that even possible?

[weatherwatchermom]

Harvey will come ashore as a category 3 just heard...horrible!!!!

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