Tracking Hurricane Irma

clearly a bit south this run through 126

aiannone wrote:clearly a bit south this run through 126

how big a change in track will that cause? seems trough is digging deeper too.

ridge a bit stronger and flexes a bit more south. starting to pull back now so let's let the run play out

Hour 162 896 mb WOW

A question if I may: On the 500mb map at hr 156, this run shows the ridging forming a sort of bridge through Canada into the Atlantic that wasn't there on the 18z run. It looks like it sorta traps the trough. Does this impact anything and, if so, how?

Joe Snow wrote:Hour 162 896 mb WOW

I do not think this makes landfall anywhere near here, maybe we have a coastal rider and a weakened storm up here we will see, we are def not at our final solution.

Still down by FL on sun morning, where 18z was up by carolinas. much slower or it just travelend further west extending the time.

Hour 192 off the Carolina's at 897 mb

NC landfall

Clearly much more south on this run. Is this the trend?

aiannone wrote:
NC landfall

absolute disaster, now does it go up coast inland or go west, no jake its not a trend first hit there on GFS.

Cmc gives south fl a hit

Is it the ridging in Canada that keeps Irma from coming further north?

Now I gotta stay up for the euro!! What time ?

GFS hits NC while CMC hits Florida. Ukie is heading towards the gulf lol

LOL

This isn't set in stone just yet

Whats up with that curve over the land, and where did that block come from? CMC hits FL, model mayhem continues...

Ukie to golf ?

I don't think I'm buying this solution of the GFS. Not with the placement of landfall; thats certainly plausible. Its what happens afterwards. Irma just keeps plowing inland NW. Unless the ridge gets really strong which it does not show, the storm should have moved in a more NNE fashion.

Thank God I don't have any faith in the CMC. My daughter goes to school down in SC.

I think I read recon will start tom will that help the models tom night?

weatherwatchermom wrote:I think I read recon will start tom will that help the models tom night?

Yes tomorrow, then they go hog wild with 6 hourly runs, they taking this very seriously.

Have this feeling that we saw the last of the nyc/nj hits on the runs. Fact is we don't see hurricanes that often at all.

jake732 wrote:Have this feeling that we saw the last of the nyc/nj hits on the runs. Fact is we don't see hurricanes that often at all.

I think it's too early to rule anything out at this stage. Until we've eliminated the impossible, anything is possible.

TheAresian wrote:

jake732 wrote:Have this feeling that we saw the last of the nyc/nj hits on the runs. Fact is we don't see hurricanes that often at all.

I think it's too early to rule anything out at this stage. Until we've eliminated the impossible, anything is possible.

Exactly, remember winter storms they go east then west then back and back again, could easily come back east and head up further offshore or ride coast, I have my opinions but not go speculate cuz thats what it is pure speculation. Anyone go wait for Euro? I am very curious it it too has a diff landfall area so that all 3 are diff now.

It runs in an hour right

If this was a snowstorm, I'd wait up for the Euro. However, seeing as I'm in no hurry to see which part of the east coast ends up having their world ruined, I'm going to call it a night. See you later all.