Tracking Hurricane Irma

jmanley32 wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:Very eager to see the latest EPS run. Then again who am I kidding the individuals will probably be all over the place anyway.

lol probably I hope by Tues or wed we start to see some consistency smound the 3 major models but who knows. I have a feeling the exact spot isn't go have a lot time. Also feel ots is unlikely but not impossible as we saw twice on euro. When does eps come out?

you know jman..I agree with you on not having a lot of time..what happens if this makes landfall in a highly populated area? and there are only a couple of days to prepare..how do you get everyone out and where do they go. .listen..they say you should always be hurricane or emergency weather ready..and in this house we are...but there is a difference of being ready for a bad storm and a possible Cat 3-4 or 5 headed your way..and that is for anyone that gets this storm...so it worries me..as it does all of you on this board...uncertain times for all of us.

syosnow94 wrote:A compromise between the EURO )barely OTS) and the GFS (n Carolina) put us right in the bullseye.  Me likey

Oh syo we so sick, lol, but att we still dont know.

A compromise between the EURO )barely OTS) and the GFS (n Carolina) put us right in the bullseye. Me likey

Is it safe to say yet this is going to miss central FL altogether?

EPS Mean says Tampa and GOM lol. So the 12z suite today brought nothing but more confusion!

Hey Jman........a lot more members end up in the eastern Gulf that run

rb924119 wrote:Hey Jman........a lot more members end up in the eastern Gulf that run

hey its been all over the place who knows. at least one run your idea holds, u still sticking to it or changing it tomorrow?

So the Euro operational is OTS, control is over mid-atlantic, and EPS mean is over central Florida. Got it.

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Hey Jman........a lot more members end up in the eastern Gulf that run

hey its been all over the place who knows. at least one run your idea holds, u still sticking to it or changing it tomorrow?

Hahahahaha I know man, I just couldn't help myself there lmfaooo and idk, I have to do analysis tomorrow. I'm way too beat today to do it; I just got home from a gen-hour day at work lmao

Even if I do, Jman, from the little I've been able to follow I don't think all of the same reasons I originally outlined as why I felt that way have held; only some of them. Being right for a percentage of the wrong reasons doesn't make you right lol gotta look at it in detail, though.

rb924119 wrote:Even if I do, Jman, from the little I've been able to follow I don't think all of the same reasons I originally outlined as why I felt that way have held; only some of them. Being right for a percentage of the wrong reasons doesn't make you right lol gotta look at it in detail, though.

Hey if you got part of it right that's great, as u know meteorology is far from a exact science and unless ur mean meteorologists are allowed to be wrong due to so many factors at hand.

Just heard that if it took the path of the GFS, there could be 52ft waves with a 16 sec hangtime, north of Puerto Rico.

weatherwatchermom wrote:..how do you get everyone out and where do they go. .listen..they say you should always be hurricane or emergency weather ready..and in this house we are...but there is a difference of being ready for a bad storm and a possible Cat 3-4 or 5 headed your way..and that is for anyone that gets this storm...so it worries me..as it does all of you on this board...uncertain times for all of us.

Very concerned. I'm prepared for a bad storm. I've got crank chargers and lanterns and radios. I've got battery pack chargers. I'll grab more food and water. But a major hurricane? I have no idea where I'd go or what I'd do. I've got my husband, our elderly cat, my parents, and all their pets to worry about. There's no way to plan. I'm truly terrified and don't understand those folks that want a major hurricane to hit this area.

EnyapWeather wrote:Just heard that if it took the path of the GFS, there could be 52ft waves with a 16 sec hangtime, north of Puerto Rico.

I can confirm. I work for an ocean routing company and the GFS swell data was maxed out to the point that the model was rangefolding (colors from the smaller denominations of swell heights were being used as an extension of the top of the swell height range). The algorithm maxes out at 21 meters, for reference lol

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Even if I do, Jman, from the little I've been able to follow I don't think all of the same reasons I originally outlined as why I felt that way have held; only some of them. Being right for a percentage of the wrong reasons doesn't make you right lol gotta look at it in detail, though.

Hey if you got part of it right that's great, as u know meteorology is far from a exact science and unless ur mean meteorologists are allowed to be wrong due to so many factors at hand.

Thanks, buddy but it's not not good enough. Striving for perfection. Always. As all of the forecasters on this board are.

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Even if I do, Jman, from the little I've been able to follow I don't think all of the same reasons I originally outlined as why I felt that way have held; only some of them. Being right for a percentage of the wrong reasons doesn't make you right lol gotta look at it in detail, though.

Hey if you got part of it right that's great, as u know meteorology is far from a exact science and unless ur mean meteorologists are allowed to be wrong due to so many factors at hand.

Thanks, buddy but it's not not good enough. Striving for perfection. Always. As all of the forecasters on this board are.

Dont be too hard on yourself, any of you.  You all do alot, and for free.  There is no perfection in much of anything.  This is a very complicated storm from what i can see so until we get much closer changing your forecasts is expected.

rb924119 wrote:

EnyapWeather wrote:Just heard that if it took the path of the GFS, there could be 52ft waves with a 16 sec hangtime, north of Puerto Rico.

I can confirm. I work for an ocean routing company and the GFS swell data was maxed out to the point that the model was rangefolding (colors from the smaller denominations of swell heights were being used as an extension of the top of the swell height range). The algorithm maxes out at 21 meters, for reference lol

For purpose of clarity, 3 meters = 10feet. Ergo, 21 meters = 70 feet. That's beyond terrifying.

Frank raising his percentage this early raises an eyebrow for me, even though its only 20% that tells me something is up, as we all know Frank is careful.   And justly so especially in a situation with such a potentially massive and dare i say worst storm ever (intensity wise)

EnyapWeather wrote:Just heard that if it took the path of the GFS, there could be 52ft waves with a 16 sec hangtime, north of Puerto Rico.

How about 60 footers!!! 
If thus hits sub 900mb like the GFS is showing , not happening but hypothetically there would be 100' plus waves.


What is on the table right now is the Bahamas are going to fricling levelled if they take her fullnforce on. Good thing you went when you did. 
Mom made a great pt. The mass panic that will set in once a path of landfall is set for some areas will be unreal like you said. Oh and Jose Irma's little.bro is ready to spin up by Tues as well with 2 more waves coming off African cont.

sabamfa wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:..how do you get everyone out and where do they go. .listen..they say you should always be hurricane or emergency weather ready..and in this house we are...but there is a difference of being ready for a bad storm and a possible Cat 3-4 or 5 headed your way..and that is for anyone that gets this storm...so it worries me..as it does all of you on this board...uncertain times for all of us.

Very concerned. I'm prepared for a bad storm. I've got crank chargers and lanterns and radios. I've got battery pack chargers. I'll grab more food and water. But a major hurricane? I have no idea where I'd go or what I'd do. I've got my husband, our elderly cat, my parents, and all their pets to worry about. There's no way to plan. I'm truly terrified and don't understand those folks that want a major hurricane to hit this area.

I have a crank radio too, and a bunch of power packs for phones and tablets, plus generator, plenty of food too. We have a grill, small camping stove and a larger gas frier, that can be used as a burner.

sabamfa wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:..how do you get everyone out and where do they go. .listen..they say you should always be hurricane or emergency weather ready..and in this house we are...but there is a difference of being ready for a bad storm and a possible Cat 3-4 or 5 headed your way..and that is for anyone that gets this storm...so it worries me..as it does all of you on this board...uncertain times for all of us.

Very concerned. I'm prepared for a bad storm. I've got crank chargers and lanterns and radios. I've got battery pack chargers. I'll grab more food and water. But a major hurricane? I have no idea where I'd go or what I'd do. I've got my husband, our elderly cat, my parents, and all their pets to worry about. There's no way to plan. I'm truly terrified and don't understand those folks that want a major hurricane to hit this area.

Trying to be helpful here. It's not rocket science. Book a few days in a nice hotel in let's say Scranton Pa. one that takes pets. Make sure they have a 24 hour cancellation policy so you can get out of it. This will take 30 minutes and give you 10 days peace of mind. Easy

syosnow94 wrote:

sabamfa wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:..how do you get everyone out and where do they go. .listen..they say you should always be hurricane or emergency weather ready..and in this house we are...but there is a difference of being ready for a bad storm and a possible Cat 3-4 or 5 headed your way..and that is for anyone that gets this storm...so it worries me..as it does all of you on this board...uncertain times for all of us.

Very concerned. I'm prepared for a bad storm. I've got crank chargers and lanterns and radios. I've got battery pack chargers. I'll grab more food and water. But a major hurricane? I have no idea where I'd go or what I'd do. I've got my husband, our elderly cat, my parents, and all their pets to worry about. There's no way to plan. I'm truly terrified and don't understand those folks that want a major hurricane to hit this area.

Trying to be helpful here.  It's not rocket science. Book a few days in a nice hotel in let's say Scranton Pa.  one that takes pets.  Make sure they have a 24 hour cancellation policy so you can get out of it.  This will take 30 minutes and give you 10 days peace of mind.  Easy

Why Scranton?

Syo, is Scranton even out of the path? Looks like this storm is so huge that that still might get clobbered.

Sroc said it best Euro is lost in the shuffle. Once a predominate.model now just in state of conflict iternally.

Still waiting g for PAC sampling and recon data to help with future track. 

As has been stated everyone should have a plan ready and their lists of supplies.

mikeypizano wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:

sabamfa wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:..how do you get everyone out and where do they go. .listen..they say you should always be hurricane or emergency weather ready..and in this house we are...but there is a difference of being ready for a bad storm and a possible Cat 3-4 or 5 headed your way..and that is for anyone that gets this storm...so it worries me..as it does all of you on this board...uncertain times for all of us.

Very concerned. I'm prepared for a bad storm. I've got crank chargers and lanterns and radios. I've got battery pack chargers. I'll grab more food and water. But a major hurricane? I have no idea where I'd go or what I'd do. I've got my husband, our elderly cat, my parents, and all their pets to worry about. There's no way to plan. I'm truly terrified and don't understand those folks that want a major hurricane to hit this area.

Trying to be helpful here.  It's not rocket science. Book a few days in a nice hotel in let's say Scranton Pa.  one that takes pets.  Make sure they have a 24 hour cancellation policy so you can get out of it.  This will take 30 minutes and give you 10 days peace of mind.  Easy

Why Scranton?

With this beast id say colorado lol

JMA JMA JMA JMA!!!!! JOIN THE GULF CAMP BABAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!!!!!! Here comes the horse race betting again -_- lmfaoooooooooooo