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Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

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Post by algae888 Wed Sep 06, 2017 2:40 pm

scott look how she gets pulled in or merges with the trough dropping in from central Canada. the tough over the n/e if she interacted with it would have likely pushed her out to sea. if the set up shown on those euro maps at hour 96-120 were about 250 miles east she probably makes landfall between outer banks and cape cod. I guess still time for corrections but we need perfect timing and set up (unlike winter storms) to get these animals to make landfall this far north. very rare indeed.
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Post by Math23x7 Wed Sep 06, 2017 2:44 pm

Just so you know, four days before Sandy hit, the ECMWF had it making landfall near Ocean City, MD. It actually made landfall near Atlantic City, NJ, about 80 miles away. Using that logic, the ECMWF could be off by that margin.

Fun fact, the ECMWF several days out missed "Juno" (1/26/15) by about the same margin as Sandy (50-100 miles).

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Post by algae888 Wed Sep 06, 2017 2:48 pm

hey remember this?!!

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 3 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35
it's the reason we have 40 pages on Irma. the good news about Irma and Harvey and the one after Harvey is that it made the last month go by very quickly and we are now much closer to winter!!! Very Happy
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Sep 06, 2017 2:55 pm

Woah

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 3 Image.thumb.png.21d911d3d42117fd177e7b715f6d7956

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Post by sroc4 Wed Sep 06, 2017 2:56 pm

@algae888 wrote:scott look how she gets pulled in or merges with the trough dropping in from central Canada. the tough over the n/e if she interacted with it would have likely pushed her out to sea. if the set up shown on those euro maps at hour 96-120 were about 250 miles east she probably makes landfall between outer banks and cape cod. I guess still time for corrections but we need perfect timing and set up (unlike winter storms) to get these animals to make landfall this far north. very rare indeed.  

Yes Al. Here is my take. The mean trough will lift out before it has a chance to drag Irma with it. In part due to timing, but also because of the trailing energy you mention that will be grabbing onto her and bring her back to the coast. I've said it for the past day or so, between now and early Friday morning the tug, or lack thereof, from the mean trough will be key to how this all plays out. There is a really good Met on another site that is insistent that it actually gets caught up in the lifting troughs wake and drags her due east at some point. I personally disagree with this at this time, but time will tell.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Sep 06, 2017 2:56 pm

Double woah

I really hope this changes. SE Florida would be in ruins if Irma took a path WEST of them.

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 3 Irma.thumb.jpg.73b8487b8eb7b9b43de36f5a874164d2

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Post by frank 638 Wed Sep 06, 2017 2:57 pm

Hey everyone I hope everybody is good .I have been so busy with work .I was just wondering if Irma will make up here and how strong will she be

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:02 pm

@frank 638 wrote:Hey everyone I hope everybody is good .I have been so busy with work .I was just wondering if Irma will make up here and how strong will she be

A very high chance she stays south of our area. Most we may see is some rain and 20 to 30 mph winds. Essentially nothing.

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Post by frank 638 Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:03 pm

Ok good nothing crazy thanks Frank

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Post by amugs Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:15 pm

Miami is screwed as is all of S FLA at this stage - she doesn't hit land on her path there and makes a hard right North and will deepen she is on a mission of destruction! JB thinks she gets to low 900's/ Quite possible with her structure and latent heat of the waters she is pulling all this energy from.

Euro is shifting North to GFS track each run.
We still have a ways to go to see what effects she will have up here. IMO we are not out the woods. Not wish casting but just being patient and as I told all of my coworkers, friends and families be on the lookout.

ALL l I can say is WATCH OUT!! SHE IS ANGRY!!

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 3 DJD81xiUwAA3Iw7

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:18 pm

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 3 DJD4snTXgAMy86-

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Post by Guest Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:24 pm

Mushy a little more optimistic than a Frankie boy at this stage.
If Frank doesn't think we will see any significant impacts I'm going to be done tracking her for awhile. I was at least hoping for some very heavy rains at a minimum.

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Post by Guest Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:24 pm

TropTid is showing the Euro initializing at 960 mb while the NHC is reporting it in the mid to upper 920. Does that mean we take the TT pressures and adjust 30-35 mbs lower?

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:34 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Mushy a little more optimistic than a Frankie boy at this stage.  
If Frank doesn't think we will see any significant impacts I'm going to be done tracking her for awhile.  I was at least hoping for some very heavy rains at a minimum.

The CMC is the only model that brings significant rain to our area from Irma, and even then it's not impressive. We will keep watching but doubt we see much.

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 3 Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_28

@TheAresian wrote:TropTid is showing the Euro initializing at 960 mb while the NHC is reporting it in the mid to upper 920. Does that mean we take the TT pressures and adjust 30-35 mbs lower?

These global models have trouble recording pressure due to their resolutions. Stick with what observed data shows (recon) and hi-res models.

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Post by Guest Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:37 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Mushy a little more optimistic than a Frankie boy at this stage.  
If Frank doesn't think we will see any significant impacts I'm going to be done tracking her for awhile.  I was at least hoping for some very heavy rains at a minimum.

The CMC is the only model that brings significant rain to our area from Irma, and even then it's not impressive. We will keep watching but doubt we see much.

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 3 Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_28

@TheAresian wrote:TropTid is showing the Euro initializing at 960 mb while the NHC is reporting it in the mid to upper 920. Does that mean we take the TT pressures and adjust 30-35 mbs lower?

These global models have trouble recording pressure due to their resolutions. Stick with what observed data shows (recon) and hi-res models.

Thank you, Frank.

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Post by sroc4 Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:41 pm

Euro ensembles still struggling beyond day 2-3. Still two camps..one west, one east:  

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 3 Eps_sl12
Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 3 Eps_sl13
Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 3 Eps_sl14
Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 3 Eps_sl15

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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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Post by amugs Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:06 pm

I am not discounting anything N of the Carolinas at this stage is all I am saying. We have seen numerous times seen these beasts change their course. 
BTW she is filing in on her western flank and should start to strengthen a bit.
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Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 3 AL11_2017090612_ECENS_large

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Post by sroc4 Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:34 pm

Def strengthening Mugs..current recon just picked up 911mb!!!

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 3 Recon_AF305-1311A-IRMA_zoom

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Post by RJB8525 Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:09 pm

we now officially have Hurricane Jose and Hurricane Katia in the gulf
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:09 pm

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 3 RAD_TJUA_N0R_ANI.gif.1942b5617a1516ec2cf5835ca34e40b2

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 3 59b05db096467_SAT_CAR_VIS_ANI(1).gif.0f9de32a0a87cfc535462daae196ef17

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:11 pm

18z NAM uhmmm misses Florida and looks like it wants to head toward Mid Atlantic

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 3 Nam_mslp_uv850_watl_fh0-81.gif.61ebd0a12ac05d4807c0b1a67d96eda5

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:11 pm

Staying north of PR just enough to spare the worst. Also means though won't weaken. I think we are gonna go for sub 900 mb.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:15 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:13 pm

The 18z Nam is east of 12z to the point where it misses Florida completely! Has the storm moving due north. If extrapolated out, landfall would be in the outer banks of NC.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:14 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:18z NAM uhmmm misses Florida and looks like it wants to head toward Mid Atlantic

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 3 Nam_mslp_uv850_watl_fh0-81.gif.61ebd0a12ac05d4807c0b1a67d96eda5
this may be a dumb question but what leads u to believe mid Atlantic vs Carolinas? Upper pattern? Even if this hit midatlsntic full on we would still get quite a storm if continued north. I know u feel very low chance and ur prolly right but the nam is def not to discount anymore.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:16 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:The 18z Nam is east of 12z to the point where it misses Florida completely! Has the storm moving due north. If extrapolated out, landfall would be in the outer banks of NC.
frank just posted above your post possibly midatlantic. This is def get interesting!
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