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2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

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Quietace
Dtone
freezerburn
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Sanchize06
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jwalsh
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Sep 17, 2017 8:38 pm

rb didn't you say you were concerned with Maria?  Or is she likely a fish storm?  I read online that there will be plenty of troughs to kick her out.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Sep 17, 2017 9:08 pm

jmanley32 wrote:rb didn't you say you were concerned with Maria?  Or is she likely a fish storm?  I read online that there will be plenty of troughs to kick her out.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2017/09/17/sunday-evening-maria-strengthening-on-approach-to-lesser-antilles-jose-expected-to-impact-ne-u-s/

his video was very informative-good luck tom with the new job!

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Sep 17, 2017 9:11 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:rb didn't you say you were concerned with Maria?  Or is she likely a fish storm?  I read online that there will be plenty of troughs to kick her out.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2017/09/17/sunday-evening-maria-strengthening-on-approach-to-lesser-antilles-jose-expected-to-impact-ne-u-s/

his video was very informative-good luck tom with the new job!
Its Jon but thanks just the same! Ya I watched it already, he is always smart not to go beyond 5 days.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Sep 17, 2017 9:24 pm

Jon..ha ha..I know your name....I abbreviated tomorrow.. Smile
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Post by RJB8525 Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:21 pm

Maria a CAT 3..Puerto Rico looks screwed. could hit them as a strong CAT 4 maybe 5.
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Post by Dtone Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:56 pm

RJB8525 wrote:Maria a CAT 3..Puerto Rico looks screwed. could hit them as a strong CAT 4 maybe 5.

Yeah as it stands now it would go right through the middle of the island borderline CAT 4/5 and emerge on the other side north of DR as a strong CAT 4. Leeward Islands are up first. No rest for the weary.
Interestingly enough the now uninhabited Barbuda is under a Tropical Storm Warning.

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Post by Quietace Mon Sep 18, 2017 2:42 pm

Maria is clearing out her pinhole eye and undergoing RI. I do not see anything inhibiting Maria within the next 24 hours.....High end Cat 4/ Cat 5 is likely.
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Post by sroc4 Mon Sep 18, 2017 4:11 pm

Quietace wrote:Maria is clearing out her pinhole eye and undergoing RI. I do not see anything inhibiting Maria within the next 24 hours.....High end Cat 4/ Cat 5 is likely.

Yup..she is looking beautiful.Down to 957mb and tanking

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 13 Rbtop-animated
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 13 Rgb-animated

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
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Post by jwalsh Mon Sep 18, 2017 4:52 pm

Maria is a cat 4 at the 5pm advisory, 130 mph, 950 mb
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Post by Quietace Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:25 pm

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_02_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80
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Post by sroc4 Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:36 pm

Quietace wrote:http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_02_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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Post by jwalsh Mon Sep 18, 2017 6:20 pm

Maria looks east on this run compared to the 12z GFS
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Post by Quietace Mon Sep 18, 2017 7:47 pm

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 13 2017AL15_1KMSRVIS_201709182130
Going to be a tough night down there.....
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Post by Sanchize06 Mon Sep 18, 2017 7:52 pm

Maria now a cat 5, winds 160mph

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Post by jwalsh Mon Sep 18, 2017 7:53 pm

Wow. The Hurricane hunters find 160mph winds in Maria. It's max winds have doubled since 24 hours ago.
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Post by RJB8525 Mon Sep 18, 2017 7:53 pm

Wow she's growing fast! Big trouble for PR..
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Sep 18, 2017 7:54 pm

jwalsh wrote:Wow. The Hurricane hunters find 160mph winds in Maria. It's max winds have doubled since 24 hours ago.
pressure down to 929 mb
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:08 pm

Good lord! Cat 5 160mph winds?! when was the last time we had this many majors let alone 2 Cat 5 that threaten same area in a matter on a month.  What island is that that she is about to destroy, and PR is screwed this will probably level them.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:13 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Good lord! Cat 5 160mph winds?! when was the last time we had this many majors let alone 2 Cat 5 that threaten same area in a matter on a month.  What island is that that she is about to destroy, and PR is screwed this will probably level them.

dominica...how horrible this all is for them down there!! hope you had a good first day?!
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:14 pm

RJB8525 wrote:Wow she's growing fast! Big trouble for PR..
Big trouble? Thats a understatement, at this rate will be over 200mph on landfall the island will be uninhabitable, the second in a matter of weeks, very sad times this year.  FL family is freaking out but I told them it looks like she will not head there but I guess too early to tell.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:15 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Good lord! Cat 5 160mph winds?! when was the last time we had this many majors let alone 2 Cat 5 that threaten same area in a matter on a month.  What island is that that she is about to destroy, and PR is screwed this will probably level them.

dominica...how horrible this all is for them down there!! hope you had a good first day?!
Yes thank you, Wow will there be a Dominica tomorrow? This season is going down in the history books for sure, all types of records broken. Not to mention at the rate we are going we may surpass 2005 and get into Greek alphabet.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:26 pm

So is Maria a threat to the US or OTS? I see Euro has a amazing dance between her and a stronger Jose? Whats up with Jose restrengthening?  Wouldnt a Fujiwara throw Maria in to the coast?
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Post by Sanchize06 Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:31 pm

Pressure still dropping, down to 925mb

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:49 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:Pressure still dropping, down to 925mb
wow just wow, te global warming fanatics will blame this on the govt and say they crated it.
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Post by Dtone Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:49 pm

The eye look to go directly over Dominica  soon

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 18, 2017 9:01 pm

Dtone wrote:The eye look to go directly over Dominica  soon
Scary night there, what is their infrastructure like?  Will they be able to handle it or will this be another Barbuda?
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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Sep 18, 2017 9:55 pm

Maria made landfall on Dominica around 9:15 I can not imagine what is happening right now...so sad and scary..especially with a cat 5 hitting at night...
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