Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

[Frank_Wx]

The GEFS continue showing a solid 10-15 day stretch of below normal temperatures beginning around the 6th of December. Today's EURO shows accumulating snowfall on the coast around the 8th of December. It looks like the potential for wintry weather is increasing for the December 6th-December 15th time frame. Still have some time before we get there so don't get your hopes up just yet! But it's fun to see

[sroc4]

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4127912-natural-gas-gets-boost-weather-models-signaling-return-winter

More info to Mugs, Frank, Doc's and Al's point.As a trader of commodities via ETF's, weather is an important guide to the possible price movement of a particular commodity, in this case, natural gas.

Who's is your met that forecasts the market well weather that tells you what to buy sell etc? I know Joe Bastardi. Mike Ventricle and BAMWX Ben Noll all write for this.

Mugs, I don't follow any particular Met .I read my sources of information and if they quote one, I use that opinion to make a trade after consulting my charts.

Got ya yuo are a very wise man Doc and where teh H is CP and SNOW - the SNOW HOUSE GANG?

Mid week we see the pattern transition to winter with Temps and then precip to follow. Boundary layers at the coast or coastal plains of NJ and LI may have a tough time to see white gold but inland (~30 miles away from teh coast maybe)next weekend could see an accumulating snow, well inland like EPA and N Orange Putnam, Sullivan Counties. This evolution is on ethat will be very good in my book:

Mugs you mean the transition mid week next week right; not this week?  I seriosuly doubt this weekend anyone in our area sees anything white. We still have a few warm periods to get through with shots of cool in between.  Wed AN, Thurs N to BN, Friday into Sat AN, Sunday into Monday N to BN, Monday through Thursday N to AN, then Into the weekend of the 8th 9th 10th is where things begin to get interesting.

[frank 638]

I was watching The Weather Channel and they were saying by December 8th of Friday both models are saying it's supposed to get very cold around here and possibly stormy conditions bring it on

[frank 638]

One more thing Lee Goldberg was also saying the same thing next Friday December 8th it is going to get very cold and we going to start seeing a lot more snow chances this is getting very exciting I cannot wait

[sroc4]

One other thing to consider, and I’m not saying it will happen, but can happen, is the storm track that leads to suppression depression. If the polar vortex drops too far south storms could pass to our south and we could be cold and dry.  I mean I’ll take my chances but it is a possibility.

[HectorO]

One more thing Lee Goldberg was also saying the same thing next Friday December 8th it is going to get very cold and we going to start seeing a lot more snow chances this is getting very exciting I cannot wait

That's a good sign for snow lovers. Lee I find is really conservative when it comes to winter weather. We'll what mother nature gives us this winter. This might be my last year up here. Might be relocating to St. Pete, FL.

[algae888]

One other thing to consider, and I’m not saying it will happen, but can happen, is the storm track that leads to suppression depression. If the polar vortex drops too far south storms could pass to our south and we could be cold and dry.  I mean I’ll take my chances but it is a possibility.

scott couldn't agree more. ensembles are playing catch up to how cold it will be. warm outliers are now removed so this was expected. our first ingredient for snow will be there. COLD!. IMO we have many was to see acc. snow in this pattern. initially storm form where boundary sets up in the 7/8 day period. this would favor inland areas. trough axis looks to be to our west att so amplification of any s/w is possible and lastly and probably most likely scenario for snow is from clippers diving down the -epo/pna ridge. oh I should also throw in when pattern relaxes usually strong signal for big storm. fun times ahead. isotherm looks like he will be spot on with his predictions. haven't had a December that looks this good in years....
new run

old run



trough axis to our west.

[algae888]

also what is pretty amazing is how accurate models and ensembles have been in picking up pattern change. I can't recall such accuracy from them. I mean they are sniffing stuff out at 2+ weeks in advance. kudos to the models!

[sroc4]

also what is pretty amazing is how accurate models and ensembles have been in picking up pattern change. I can't recall such accuracy from them. I mean they are sniffing stuff out at 2+ weeks in advance. kudos to the models!

What a great point Al.  When I think about this I think in reality the last major pattern changer, the initail wave 1 & 2 attack and subsequent disruption to the Strat shifted the main driver to the pattern from the oncoming La Nina to the strat PV position and strength last month.  In reality things like the development of the La Nina has been coming on slowly, steadily and predictably and it has remained on the weak side. The MJO although has periodically come out in warm phases the pulses have been weak as well, so there hasent really been any major Pattern shifting since end Oct early Nov. when the strat was disrupted.  Instead we simply had a relaxation to the effects of the strat with none of the other a aforementioned pattern "enhancers" being able to dominate the big picture.  The period from approx Nov 24th through the Dec 6th-8th is def compliments of the weak MJO and La Nina influences, but again since they are weak they only partially or temporarily have influenced the pattern giving us a brief slight AN period overall.  The current Wave 1 attack on the upper atmosphere brilliantly predicted by Isotherm will once again land directly on the chin of the strat PV such that it will once again directly influence the high lat tropospheric blocking set up and set us up for the remainder of Dec.  

So in reality although there was a brief reprieve the big picture pattern drivers have been pretty consistent and stable since the first week of Nov.  As we have seen in the past models def have an easier time staying on point when there isn't a lot of volatility to the major players; whereas, when there is a possibility that the main players in drivers seat are going to change positions models typically have a very difficult time keying in on how and when.  At least that's my overall take on the situation.  

[algae888]

Today's 12z GFS is simply juicy what a pattern coming up get your rest this week because I'm pretty sure will be staying up late for many nights in December

[nutleyblizzard]

Today's 12z GFS is simply juicy what a pattern coming up get your rest this week because I'm pretty sure will be staying up late for many nights in December

Yea sure is. I especially liked the last frame of the run. Looked like the beginning of a triple-phaser.

[dkodgis]

As a layperson, I would hope that putting new weather satellites into use, and having spending plans in what...the millions each year across the country and beyond...that equipment and technology could advance in a noticeable time frame to show desired results in forecasting. By this I mean forecasts that are useful and within a time frame to help anyone decide if weather is going to be significant enough to warn, advise, or inform an audience/the public. I know weather forecasting is difficult but I hope what is going into the field in resources is coming out as significant information with quicker turnaround time for forecasters.

[algae888]

This from a very well respected and very knowledgeable weather Enthusiast from another board who never hypes things and tells it as it is. hope he doesn't mind I'm posting it here.


"At this point, even as I read from earlier posts about concerns about a "cold and dry" December featuring cutters, that typically is not the norm for Decembers that feature the kind of extended AO-PNA blocking that is currently modeled. Even as there are exceptions e.g., 1985 when just 0.9" snow fell, most such December cases featured 6" or more snow. About a third of such cases saw 10" or more snowfall in December. These figures do not necessary suggest KU-type storms, but they reflect higher snowfall that results from increased opportunities for snow due to sufficient cold.

Despite the CFSv2's forecast of a warmer than normal December as of right now, my guess is that December will probably have a mean temperature around 35.0° +/- 0.5° (2°-3° below the monthly normal) with a fairly high probability of 6" or more monthly snowfall (vs. the monthly average of 4.8"). The potential for 8" or more exists, but that would assume that the strong blocking would last through most of December once it takes hold. It's too soon to be sure about that.

Perhaps I'm a dissenting voice on this December idea, but I see a lot to be encouraged about--far more than for recent Decembers."

[algae888]

And I'll just remind everyone that weather is all about probabilities so going forward when we start tracking storms I will side with the snowier outcomes if there is Divergence among the different Global models. hopefully this blocking comes to fruition it sure looks so as of this moment

[algae888]

eps snowfall mean ....

[algae888]

this is snow lovers heaven. and pna/epo ridge gets stronger the next 5 days...

mike how come your not posting this?

[algae888]

please wake me up I must be dreaming.....

[Math23x7]

mike how come your not posting this?

After several days of concern that the potential cold wave would not pan out, it now looks like it will indeed happen. That in just over a weeks time, we will experience cold temperatures. The questions become:

1) How long does the cold last?
2) Will this simply feature "suppression depression" where the cold comes without snow?
3) Will the low pressure systems cut to our west bringing us a day or two of unseasonal warmth before cold/dry air returns?

Good signal but not on board for snow (at least not yet).

[sroc4]

mike how come your not posting this?

After several days of concern that the potential cold wave would not pan out, it now looks like it will indeed happen.  That in just over a weeks time, we will experience cold temperatures.  The questions become:  

1) How long does the cold last?
2) Will this simply feature "suppression depression" where the cold comes without snow?
3) Will the low pressure systems cut to our west bringing us a day or two of unseasonal warmth before cold/dry air returns?

Good signal but not on board for snow (at least not yet).

Reasonable questions and a reasonable approach.  It hasn't happened until it happens even though odds cont to rapidly increase.

[algae888]

mike how come your not posting this?

After several days of concern that the potential cold wave would not pan out, it now looks like it will indeed happen.  That in just over a weeks time, we will experience cold temperatures.  The questions become:  

1) How long does the cold last?
2) Will this simply feature "suppression depression" where the cold comes without snow?
3) Will the low pressure systems cut to our west bringing us a day or two of unseasonal warmth before cold/dry air returns?

Good signal but not on board for snow (at least not yet).

Very valid points however how come you're so quick to post and believe when the euro is showing a ridge in the east but skeptical when it's showing cold weather and a great pattern. when did you switch to a warm Miser

[MattyICE]

I’m very nervous about that PNA ridge spike being too far west. Similarly, with the mean trough in the east being too west and/or too broad. I also hear the other idea of suppression. I DO think we can get snow...but I do think it comes more likely from something that is NOT a classic Miller A riding up the coast with multiple phases. I would lean more towards Miller B’s, snow to slop to rain storms, inland runners and even clippers that can dive and amplify a bit before rounding the base of the trof. Of course I’m hoping for a friggin triple phase 2’+ monster! But this is my attempt to stay sane and remember some climo.

[rb924119]

Nobody seems to have seen the EURO Op, or at least commented on it. Day 10 classic Miller-A rounding the bend and looking primed for detonation on our immediate forecast area. Just sayin'.........lol I've really liked the odds for that period, and with increasing support see no reason not to right now

[algae888]

I’m very nervous about that PNA ridge spike being too far west. Similarly, with the mean trough in the east being too west and/or too broad. I also hear the other idea of suppression. I DO think we can get snow...but I do think it comes more likely from something that is NOT a classic Miller A riding up the coast with multiple phases. I would lean more towards Miller B’s, snow to slop to rain storms, inland runners and even clippers that can dive and amplify a bit before rounding the base of the trof. Of course I’m hoping for a friggin triple phase 2’+ monster!  But this is my attempt to stay sane and remember some climo.

Yes Mike the pattern change starts around December 6th climo doesn't get favorable for us especially along the coastal plain until the last 3rd of December. What I'm looking at is the negative EPO / PNA Ridge along with the negative AO both are forecast to drop to the bottom of their charts. As stated above in one of my posts when this happens the probability of us having 6 inch or more of snow in December is quite High. I actually like the look of the euro which shows North Carolina getting snow. I think that would move northward. We want to stay right near the boundary and have storms run along it. can there be a lot of slop Fest yes can there be suppression yes but I believe one of the short waves will get us in this upcoming pattern. For the first time in years we should be tracking something the first week of December

[algae888]

Nobody seems to have seen the EURO Op, or at least commented on it. Day 10 classic Miller-A rounding the bend and looking primed for detonation on our immediate forecast area. Just sayin'.........lol I've really liked the odds for that period, and with increasing support see no reason not to right now

Yeah rb the two time frames to watch are the 6th to the 8th and then the 10th through the 12th and then there could be more there after but that's way out in time. And another time frame to watch which could be the biggest one of all is when this pattern relaxes which will have to happen at some point sometime later in December. we are really Prime though for a big-time December this year.

[rb924119]

Al, I could not agree more with your comment about the biggest potential occurring as the pattern would relax/reload. Mikey, correct me if I'm wrong, but I think a disproportionate amount of our big storms have come at the ends of these types of patterns, especially in recent years. But I also really like the front end this time; very different setup than what we usually have.

[algae888]

Al, I could not agree more with your comment about the biggest potential occurring as the pattern would relax/reload. Mikey, correct me if I'm wrong, but I think a disproportionate amount of our big storms have come at the ends of these types of patterns, especially in recent years. But I also really like the front end this time; very different setup than what we usually have.

RB I would be more concerned about suppression if we were in a El Nino Base state. All the years that I can remember during la nina when blocking showed up we had good Winters with that said the Base State that we're in now La Nina should keep some semblance of a South East Ridge so suppression would be the least of my concerns now

[Frank_Wx]

The newly released 18z GEFS is showing quite the winter pattern. Anomalous high latitude blocking over the EPO region will bring about a cross-polar flow and activate the polar jet stream. To be clear, December 6th is the date this pattern change to colder than normal weather is expected to occur. And it could last all the way through the 20th...



The EURO Ensembles show similar. Cold, cold, and more cold. This is out to December 9th.





Question becomes will snow accompany the cold. Answer is...yes.

Someone is going to see their first accumulating snow between the December 7th and December 20th time frame. Hopefully that is everyone on this board and not just N&W, or S&E, or way up north people.

The first storm threat is on December 8th, plus or minus 2 days. The GFS is sheering out the southern energy but the EURO tries to cook something up. By this point in time, the cold air will be in place.



A more detailed blog will follow this weekend if things continue looking as great as they do now.

[Sponsored content]