Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

[Frank_Wx]

I created a thread for next weekend. Keep this thread for discussions beyond December 9th

[Math23x7]

Mugs, which meteorologist did that quote come from?

[mikeypizano]

Mugs, also, when?

[Guest]

GFS 12z op is showing some snow for the northeast between the 10th and 12th. One of these chances is bound to deliver.

[amugs]

Mugs, which meteorologist did that quote come from?

JM

[amugs]

[quote="mikeypizano"]Mugs, also, when?[/quote
Also when??? What time frame 10-28th if that is what ur asking. Multiple storm chances

[mikeypizano]

So not this storm thats coming up next pretty much? I know there was a pretty big storm towards end of runs...

[amugs]

This is going to help make the cold be cold and supply fresh sources for cold to iftate our area

[mikeypizano]

The 00z GFS is painful too look at..........

[Math23x7]

Mugs, which meteorologist did that quote come from?

JM

Who is JM?

[amugs]

NOAA saying get out the thermal just a truly anamolous pattern!!

[skinsfan1177]

NOAA saying get out the thermal just a truly anamolous pattern!!

Been awhile seeing a pattern like that last that long Giddy up

[Math23x7]

Over the past week, JB has been discussing December 1989 as an analog going forward as it was an extremely cold analog. Keep in mind, however, that it had very little snow. Only about an inch of snow the entire month.

[amugs]

NPAC is very active with wave breaks that will only enhance and pump the PNA or west coast Ridge that will extend up into the Arctic region. This looks to last into later part of Dec as currently modelled

[amugs]

Consistency!!

[amugs]

This is a great looks wow!! Big trough over the east in dark blue with a massive Ridge in the west that again extend pole ward and then over the top towards Greenland

[amugs]

MJO will be going from phase 6 through about 1 by the end of the month this would be a very cold look. Look at the pressures. Changes in the IO and Western PAC by Aussieland

[Frank_Wx]

Thanks for sharing Mugsy. Interesting developments. In particular with the Stratosphere and MJO.

The GEFS suggests we'll remain cold into Christmas. It looks like the NAO blocking breaks down at some point, however. Luckily the WPO/EPO ridging means business. That could be a result of the active MJO. Lots to like in the long range but I would like to see one of these events materialize into a snowstorm patience!

[amugs]

We put snow on the ground we go after records with this air mass - you'll get a feedback as we did in 13-14 and 14-15 where the lows will go lower at night with a clear sky and big time radiational cooling

This is VERY IMPRESSIVE for temps

[amugs]

We go from BARNEY to the Mick!!

BARNEY


MICK - GREEN!!

[amugs]

And teh corresponding Temps fro NYC from JH on tweeter!

[algae888]

n and w folks do not get upset if this weekends snow passes you by. more great disco from the pro's...

There is potential for a storm to start impacting the area beginning
on Tue, more likely Tue night, as the mean trough to the west
reloads and then significantly amplifies, with both GFS/ECMWF
showing incipient low pressure over the Mid Atlantic region bombing
out as it moves offshore the Mid Atlantic and New England coasts.
Longer range models have advertised this possibility for some time
now, but details are by design sketchy. If the currently advertised
GFS/ECMWF scenario were to pan out, with lack of a strong high to
the NE to supply cold air, this would likely be more of an interior
snow event inland, with rain at the coast. We have a long way to go
to follow model trends with this potential event.

[Guest]

n and w folks do not get upset if this weekends snow passes you by. more great disco from the pro's...

There is potential for a storm to start impacting the area beginning
on Tue, more likely Tue night, as the mean trough to the west
reloads and then significantly amplifies, with both GFS/ECMWF
showing incipient low pressure over the Mid Atlantic region bombing
out as it moves offshore the Mid Atlantic and New England coasts.
Longer range models have advertised this possibility for some time
now, but details are by design sketchy. If the currently advertised
GFS/ECMWF scenario were to pan out, with lack of a strong high to
the NE to supply cold air, this would likely be more of an interior
snow event inland, with rain at the coast. We have a long way to go
to follow model trends with this potential event.

What happened to the telecommunications being set up in such an epic way that the cold would be locked in such a manner that we haven’t seen in years. Then as we get into the second week of December we’re talking about the possibility of no cold air and rain?

Yes I know it’s the LR and it’s just a possibility but what gives?

[algae888]

n and w folks do not get upset if this weekends snow passes you by. more great disco from the pro's...

There is potential for a storm to start impacting the area beginning
on Tue, more likely Tue night, as the mean trough to the west
reloads and then significantly amplifies, with both GFS/ECMWF
showing incipient low pressure over the Mid Atlantic region bombing
out as it moves offshore the Mid Atlantic and New England coasts.
Longer range models have advertised this possibility for some time
now, but details are by design sketchy. If the currently advertised
GFS/ECMWF scenario were to pan out, with lack of a strong high to
the NE to supply cold air, this would likely be more of an interior
snow event inland, with rain at the coast. We have a long way to go
to follow model trends with this potential event.

What happened to the telecommunications being set up in such an epic way that the cold would be locked in such a manner that we haven’t seen in years.  Then as we get into the second week of December we’re talking about the possibility of no cold air and rain?  

Yes I know it’s the LR and it’s just a possibility but what gives?

just because we have great setups doesn't always mean snow. climo is still against us in early mid dec especially with warm to warmer than normal ocean temps. we only ave. 4" of snow in December so any one expecting a lot more could be disappointed. all I can ask for is the chance for it to snow. we have the cold. we will have that for awhile unlike the last several years. I still believe we will end up with more than 4" when dec is done. every storm though probably will not be snow.

[amugs]

EPO REGION LOOKS TO KICK IN BIG time with a MT pac wave break Asian Jet extension , early Jan so the cold and northern stream stitms could continue maybe extended further if it gets support

[amugs]

HOLY MOTHER OF POOP!! EARTHLIGHT BARKING AT THIS POSSIBILITY NEXT WEEK!!

"GFS has trended way better for the 12/13 event with the REMOVAL of a huge TPV. This storm then becomes its own entity much faster and jet dynamics with moisture are prevalent. This is trending better rapidly ."

IN ADDITION

The loss of the huge TPV phase in the Northeast means it elongates quickly. We have a KU look in under 240 hours if that is correct. Go watch the evolution yourself!

MOTHER OF GODDDDDDDDD!!!!!!!!
HE NEVER SAYS SUCH AT THIS RANGE!!

[mikeypizano]

Mugs, please put that into little words so I can under stand it... Does that mean BIG storm?

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