Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

[Guest]

If Lee says it i believe it. That guy tends to be more conservative, but seems to be one of my favorite to follow. That's why when he said snow was coming last week, then snow was coming lol.

I don’t know about you, but I find the guys on here like Scott and Frank, Isotherm etc; are SIGNIFICANTLY more accurate and willing to make early calls than ANY of the local media guys hands down!!!

[sroc4]

Hello everyone, hope i'm not too late! Lol, hope all is well! Anyway, so yeah i'll just jump into the discussion. I'll say this regarding our tropical forcing, or whether or not it's just "noise", but take a look at the 200VP. It appears like it's remaining rather stationary across the MC/WP, reminiscent of last year and of course, following a NINA conventional standing wave. When looking at the CFS forecast of this wave, it'd appear to be the case, so the question is do we see a propagation of this wave, or constructive interference? Regardless though, thanks to a +EAMT and tropical forcing, we'll see a -EPO block manifest and in a big way thanks to wave breaking. We've seen guidance continue over the years, underestimate the extent of the low level cold anomalies. Also in our favor is that because it appears to be an active pattern, we'll see shortwaves eject out and this should also hinder the extent of the SE ridge.

I know your a busy man Mando but your posts in here are always appreciated.  Hopefully they can become more common place.  Thanks for the insight.

Thats interesting in that the standard phase plots from the GFS agrees with a recycling of the MJO to go along with where the GFS 200mb Pot V. anomalies are forecasted to go. However; the Euro disagrees and shows progression into the phase 8 and possibly 1.

[track17]

So what are the odds of Saturday's storm actually happening and how much we talking?

[HectorO]

If Lee says it i believe it. That guy tends to be more conservative, but seems to be one of my favorite to follow. That's why when he said snow was coming last week, then snow was coming lol.

I don’t know about you, but I find the guys on here like Scott and Frank, Isotherm etc; are SIGNIFICANTLY more accurate and willing to make early calls than ANY of the local media guys hands down!!!

And you're right, they've definitely been more accurate than meteorologist I see on TV. I think maybe TV meteorologist have to be a little bit more conservative to not cause panic.

[Guest]

If Lee says it i believe it. That guy tends to be more conservative, but seems to be one of my favorite to follow. That's why when he said snow was coming last week, then snow was coming lol.

I don’t know about you, but I find the guys on here like Scott and Frank, Isotherm etc; are SIGNIFICANTLY more accurate and willing to make early calls than ANY of the local media guys hands down!!!

And you're right, they've definitely been more accurate than meteorologist I see on TV. I think maybe TV meteorologist have to be a little bit more conservative to not cause panic.

Definitely true.

[Armando Salvadore]

Hello everyone, hope i'm not too late! Lol, hope all is well! Anyway, so yeah i'll just jump into the discussion. I'll say this regarding our tropical forcing, or whether or not it's just "noise", but take a look at the 200VP. It appears like it's remaining rather stationary across the MC/WP, reminiscent of last year and of course, following a NINA conventional standing wave. When looking at the CFS forecast of this wave, it'd appear to be the case, so the question is do we see a propagation of this wave, or constructive interference? Regardless though, thanks to a +EAMT and tropical forcing, we'll see a -EPO block manifest and in a big way thanks to wave breaking. We've seen guidance continue over the years, underestimate the extent of the low level cold anomalies. Also in our favor is that because it appears to be an active pattern, we'll see shortwaves eject out and this should also hinder the extent of the SE ridge.

I know your a busy man Mando but your posts in here are always appreciated.  Hopefully they can become more common place.  Thanks for the insight.

Thats interesting in that the standard phase plots from the GFS agrees with a recycling of the MJO to go along with where the GFS 200mb Pot V. anomalies are forecasted to go.  However; the Euro disagrees and shows progression into the phase 8 and possibly 1.

Yeah, indeed Scott i'll be definitely posting and contributing more often now that my schedule is easing big time with school. I'm sensing however, that the ECMWF depiction and propagation of the MJO is correct. GEFS may be having issues trying to decipher the convective activity that is also ongoing such as Kelvin waves in the IO and eastward propagating equatorial Rossby waves. We shall see where this wave goes, but it does pose some uncertainty. It's interesting as well because GFS/GEFS has a -AAM bias, yet it's more aggressive with the 500mb setup regarding the Central trough opposed to the EPS/EURO. I definitely am one to apply past experience and knowledge and know that i fully expect guidance to trend colder and towards what the 12z GEFS output.

[Armando Salvadore]

Well regarding my last post, just saw the 12z EURO. So really it's the EPS that is in its own camp, but I think we all know where this is going....

[amugs]

Armondo thanks for posting and great insight. I have for one been harping on teh wave break and EAMT - the EPO region is just getting one storm after another riding into this region getting absorbed and then pumping the PNA ridge causing a poleward extension - Tom is of the stance that the NAO will reflect this during the time frame from before xmass through the 31st. The N EPO drove our great winters of 13-14 and 14-15 if yuo recall.
The synoptic set up calls for a deep level of cold air intrusion and to stay for a while.
The changes on teh ENS are amazing in teh last 24 hours from baking the EC to the Freezer!

[amugs]

Monday morning snow again



Jim Witt factor Dec 21-23 call he made in 1969 when he ran and researched all this terrestrial meteorological effects




No complaining about travel.issues yada yada yada. You all want snow for Xmas so here it is. Stay home open the presents play with the kids and drink some nog!

[frank 638]

I would love to have a white snowy Christmas my fingers are crossed let this happen

[hyde345]

Monday morning snow again



Jim Witt factor Dec 21-23 call he made in 1969 when he ran and researched all this terrestrial meteorological effects




No complaining about travel.issues yada yada yada. You all want snow for Xmas so here it is. Stay home open the presents play with the kids and drink some nog!

Only thing is it's 11 days away and we know how those verify.

[frank 638]

Please tell me this will change for Xmas AccuWeather is saying 50* on Xmas Eve and Xmas day

[Guest]

MAN I HOPE THE LR CREW ON HERE IS RIGHT. The EURO, CANAIDIAN AND GFS ALL SHOW A BIG CUTTER DAY 6. The GFS and the CMC then show a second wave offshore bringing us precip on or about the 24th.

[RJB8525]

That's right Mugs. any complaints of snow on Xmas should be considered blasphemy and sentenced to the pit of misery

[Guest]

That's right Mugs. any complaints of snow on Xmas should be considered blasphemy and sentenced to the pit of misery

Could not agree more. Snow on Christmas is the Pinnacle. Everybody on here pretty much travels every day. Don’t wanna here it anymore. If someone says no to snow because they have to travel I say a one week ban.

[RJB8525]

That's right Mugs. any complaints of snow on Xmas should be considered blasphemy and sentenced to the pit of misery

Could not agree more.  Snow on Christmas is the Pinnacle.  Everybody on here pretty much travels every day.  Don’t wanna here it anymore.  If someone says no to snow because they have to travel I say a one week ban.

if you like snow you always have to dream of a white Christmas! there's nothing better

[sroc4]

Im flying to Hawaii with my family on the 26th. Let it SNOW!!!

[amugs]

Sunday Night into Monday - again since its upgrade its been doing better

[amugs]

Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1138 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

CTZ005>008-NJZ002-004-103>108-NYZ067>070-160000-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-
WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-
WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
1138 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

Light snow will develop this afternoon between 2 and 4 pm and
continue through the evening commute. Given the recent cold
temperatures, roadways will become snow covered and slippery.
Around 1 to 2 inches of snow is forecast. Motorists are urged to
use extra caution if traveling this evening.

The snow will gradually taper off from west to east after 7 pm,
ending around midnight across the eastern Connecticut.

[docstox12]

Sunday Night into Monday - again since its upgrade its been doing better

PERFECT for CP and me and the guys further north! If this pans out it will even us up for this storm which is hitting areas S and E and just giving us a coating to an inch.

[sroc4]

Latest discussion on the state ENSO.  As predicted a weak to moderate Nina for this winter:

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS  
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society        
14 December 2017

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

Synopsis: La Niña is likely (exceeding ~80%) through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18, with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely during the mid-to-late spring.
La Niña strengthened during the past month, as indicated by an increasingly prominent pattern of below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1).  The latest weekly Niño-3.4 index value was -0.8C, with the easternmost Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 indices at or below -1.0C during much of the month (Fig. 2).  Sub-surface temperature anomalies weakened slightly during November, but remained significantly negative (Fig. 3) due to the anomalously shallow depth of the thermocline across the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4).  The atmospheric circulation over the tropical Pacific Ocean also reflected La Niña, with convection suppressed near the International Date Line and enhanced over Indonesia (Fig. 5).  The low-level trade winds were stronger than average over the western and central Pacific, with anomalous westerly winds at upper-levels.  Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system reflects La Niña.
La Niña is predicted to persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18 by nearly all models in the IRI/CPC plume (Fig. 6) and in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME; Fig. 7).  Based on the latest observations and forecast guidance, forecasters favor the peak of a weak-to-moderate La Niña during the winter (3-month Niño-3.4 values between -0.5C and -1.5C).  In summary, La Niña is likely (exceeding ~80%) through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18, with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely during the mid-to-late spring (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).
La Niña is anticipated to affect temperature and precipitation across the United States during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks will be updated on Thursday December 21st). The outlooks generally favor above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and below-average temperatures and above-median precipitation across the northern tier of the United States.
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 11 January 2018. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
College Park, MD 20740

[track17]

Sroc do you think that will be an issue if that happpens

[SENJsnowman]

Sroc do you think that will be an issue if that happpens

"La Niña is anticipated to affect temperature and precipitation across the United States during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks will be updated on Thursday December 21st). The outlooks generally favor above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and below-average temperatures and above-median precipitation across the northern tier of the United States."

If I am reading this right, it sounds like a good issue.

[sroc4]

Sroc do you think that will be an issue if that happpens

"La Niña is anticipated to affect temperature and precipitation across the United States during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks will be updated on Thursday December 21st). The outlooks generally favor above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and below-average temperatures and above-median precipitation across the northern tier of the United States."

If I am reading this right, it sounds like a good issue.

Basically it will boil down to the other big picture pattern drivers and the interactions between them all. As of now with the current state of the Strat vortex, and the forecasted N Pacific blocking we will cont to see this be favorable for us as we head into Jan. However, as we press deeper into Jan we will have to revisit all the main drivers to see which ones play the biggest role.

As of now this will likley help us in the snow department with multiple over running events likely into Jan.

[dkodgis]

I see temps sneaking back up around Xmas. Somebody make a few calls and get it colder, please.

[Snow88]

Euro monthlies now have a cold January, just like the CFS.

[docstox12]

Euro monthlies now have a cold January, just like the CFS.

GREAT NEWS!!!!!

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