Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

by **jmanley32** Fri Dec 22, 2017 12:00 am

wow 00z gfs next sat, makes much more sense areawide godzilla for most.

by **rb924119** Fri Dec 22, 2017 4:11 am

I don't even care anymore, I just died when I looked at the Ensembles. Literally I must be dreaming.

by **Radz** Fri Dec 22, 2017 5:59 am

rb924119 wrote:I don't even care anymore, I just died when I looked at the Ensembles. Literally I must be dreaming.

All the models are consistently showing a MECS next weekend, the pattern must be screaming it...

by **nutleyblizzard** Fri Dec 22, 2017 6:15 am

rb924119 wrote:I don't even care anymore, I just died when I looked at the Ensembles. Literally I must be dreaming.

What a run the 6z GFS showed. With each ensuing run its been trending colder/stronger. Mighty impressive but we have a long way to go with trends for the better or worse.

by **weatherwatchermom** Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:33 am

rb924119 wrote:I don't even care anymore, I just died when I looked at the Ensembles. Literally I must be dreaming.

can you post the ensembles for us to see...

by **rb924119** Fri Dec 22, 2017 1:14 pm

WELCOME BACK OLD FRIEND EURO!!!!

by **rb924119** Fri Dec 22, 2017 1:20 pm

00z:

Long Range Thread 15.0 - Page 31 Img_1316

12z:

Long Range Thread 15.0 - Page 31 Img_1317

by **rb924119** Fri Dec 22, 2017 1:21 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
rb924119 wrote:I don't even care anymore, I just died when I looked at the Ensembles. Literally I must be dreaming.

can you post the ensembles for us to see...

Shortly, sure Smile

by **mikeypizano** Fri Dec 22, 2017 1:26 pm

rb924119 wrote:00z:

12z:

Shouldn't these be in the Christmas storm thread?

by **sroc4** Fri Dec 22, 2017 1:35 pm

rb924119 wrote:00z:

12z:

I moved them over there.

by **nutleyblizzard** Fri Dec 22, 2017 1:55 pm

Major hit on the EURO next week!!!

by SnowForest Fri Dec 22, 2017 1:56 pm

Hey, I had a question: Based on what I have read, we use the ensembles to look at the ideas and patterns long-range, and switch to using the operational models to get the details once the event in question is closer. Is this correct, or is there more to it?

by **rb924119** Fri Dec 22, 2017 2:01 pm

MY GOD THE EURO JUST PRODUCED A FRANKZILLA

by **rb924119** Fri Dec 22, 2017 2:04 pm

FORGET THAT ITS A BLIZZARD OF 1888!!!!!!

by **rb924119** Fri Dec 22, 2017 2:08 pm

SnowForest wrote:Hey, I had a question: Based on what I have read, we use the ensembles to look at the ideas and patterns long-range, and switch to using the operational models to get the details once the event in question is closer. Is this correct, or is there more to it?

Nope, you got it!! Ensembles are also used in close to an event, but generally once within 36-48 hours (but not always) the ensembles and operationals start becoming synonymous with things like precipitation amounts, snowfall, etc., as the differences in each member begin to matter less and less with respect to the propagation of errors in the calculations and resulting possible spread of solutions.

by **rb924119** Fri Dec 22, 2017 2:09 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:Major hit on the EURO next week!!!

Maps in banter because I don't think they should be in this thread yet, that's how off the wall they are. Btw Scott, sorry for the misplaced post; thank you for righting my ship aha

by **jimv45** Fri Dec 22, 2017 2:10 pm

rb with this storm this weekend and then next weekend fun times ahead.

by Guest Fri Dec 22, 2017 2:10 pm

Is this a coastal monster or does the whole northeast get to share the snow?

by **nutleyblizzard** Fri Dec 22, 2017 2:11 pm

rb924119 wrote:MY GOD THE EURO JUST PRODUCED A FRANKZILLA

What the 12z EURO shows is ultimately what next weeks pattern "could" produce. At this far out juncture, while I think the GFS is incorrect, it cannot be taken off the table of possible tracks. We all know the drill, models will flip flop the next few days then hone in with a solution afterwords. A crazy week to model watch. Thank god I'm off from work next week cause I have a feeling I'll be burning the midnight oil.

by **jmanley32** Fri Dec 22, 2017 2:14 pm

TheAresian wrote:Is this a coastal monster or does the whole northeast get to share the snow?

I have the map but I'm mobile it's unfathomable most of NY pa western CT CT nh it would be biblical verbatim. 3 plus feet to as much as 48 inches I saw in one spot. Crazy.

by **rb924119** Fri Dec 22, 2017 2:23 pm

Here are the ensembles from last night that had me fired up. Please note that the GFS, though it has backed off some with its 12z suite, is still very impressive for an ENSEMBLE MEAN. GFS first, then EURO.

Long Range Thread 15.0 - Page 31 Img_1320

Long Range Thread 15.0 - Page 31 Img_1320

Long Range Thread 15.0 - Page 31 Img_1321

by **jmanley32** Fri Dec 22, 2017 7:36 pm

So nice. I don't think this is go miss us more of intensity and how much snow imo.

by **Snow88** Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:04 pm

CMC is very amped with the wave next week. Looks like it's focusing on the earlier wave like the GFS.

by **Snow88** Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:07 pm

Nice snowstorm on the CMC next weekend

CMC is also focusing on the early wave like the GFS is

by **Sanchize06** Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:20 pm

0z GFS coming in very nice this run, doesn't seem to be in a rush to leave either

by **Snow88** Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:21 pm

GFS looks awesome

What a moisture feed into the gulf

Snow breaks out early Friday morning on this run

by **Sanchize06** Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:23 pm

Wow 30 hours of snow and still going, precip still moving north. 1-2 ft pretty easily this run

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