Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

by **Snow88** Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:21 pm

GFS looks awesome

What a moisture feed into the gulf

Snow breaks out early Friday morning on this run

by **Sanchize06** Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:23 pm

Wow 30 hours of snow and still going, precip still moving north. 1-2 ft pretty easily this run

by **MattyICE** Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:25 pm

Something has to be wrong with this run...

by **Sanchize06** Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:27 pm

Low still strengthening after 48 hours of snow, insane run

by **Snow88** Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:29 pm

20 + inches for DC

by **Sanchize06** Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:30 pm

Snow88 wrote:20 + inches for DC

And that's a 10-1 ratio. GFS has surface temps in teens and 20's. More like 15-1 to 20-1 ratios this run

by **Sanchize06** Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:31 pm

For fun, GFS snowfall, only at 10-1 ratios

Long Range Thread 15.0 - Page 32 Gfs_asnow_neus_36

by **SENJsnowman** Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:32 pm

So far it's got over 50 straight hours of snow over the entire dc to nyc corridor. holy moly!

by **Sanchize06** Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:34 pm

With ratios

Long Range Thread 15.0 - Page 32 Snku_acc.us_ne

by **Snow88** Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:36 pm

GFS snows for 48 hours and has 1-2 feet for the NYC area with close to 20 for D.C

CMC has 6-12 for the NYC area

by Guest Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:42 pm

Snow88 wrote:GFS snows for 48 hours and has 1-2 feet for the NYC area with close to 20 for D.C

CMC has 6-12 for the NYC area

Oh what I would pay for this to be the night before not 7 days out. When it’s this good it can only trend in one direction. Let’s just hope that this is like the Superstorm In 1993 where it was modeled for 6 days straight and it never wavered.

I HATE BEING IN THE SWEETSPOT LIKE WE ARE THIS FAR OUT

by Guest Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:45 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:So far it's got over 50 straight hours of snow over the entire dc to nyc corridor. holy moly!

LISTEN. SCREW THESE SNOW MAPS! I PROMISE YOU THAT IF IT SNOWS FOR 50 STRAIGHT HOURS WITH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND 20 DEGREES WE WOULD HAVE 60”. FIVE FEET. LETS ALL CHILLAX afro

by **Math23x7** Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:45 pm

What's interesting about the the 0Z CMC is that not only does it have snow coming to the region earlier (29th-30th), it also extends the snow all the way to Montreal. While the 10:1 ratio map has Montreal at 1-2" of snow, temperatures at 700 mb, 850 mb, and surface would be below 0* F, so it would be a 40:1 to 50:1 ratio event. Given the middle ground of both the qpf and the ratios, this would exceed six inches of snow in Montreal, and that run has the snow over by daybreak Saturday, right before we are set to head back to New York. IF this is correct, I'll take it! Very Happy

by **Snow88** Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:53 pm

Ukie looks like the GFS

by **Snow88** Sat Dec 23, 2017 12:07 am

GEFS with a huge overrunning to a coastal signal in a good spot.

by **Snow88** Sat Dec 23, 2017 12:08 am

GEFS with a huge overrunning to a coastal signal in a good spot.

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 23, 2017 12:35 am

All 3 models show at least a Godzilla. The jackpot is a very large area so there would need to be a huge shift to be below 12. Syo I agree 48 hrs of snow no way it's 20 inches.

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 23, 2017 12:37 am

Let's do the over running then the euro coastal and go for 5 to 7 feet lol. Someone said this year could be like when beantown had their 6 feet in a few weeks. Was it on here?

by **SENJsnowman** Sat Dec 23, 2017 12:40 am

syosnow94 wrote:
SENJsnowman wrote:So far it's got over 50 straight hours of snow over the entire dc to nyc corridor. holy moly!

LISTEN. SCREW THESE SNOW MAPS! I PROMISE YOU THAT IF IT SNOWS FOR 50 STRAIGHT HOURS WITH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND 20 DEGREES WE WOULD HAVE 60”. FIVE FEET. LETS ALL CHILLAX

Ummm...are you telling me to chillax in all CAPS?

OK, fine. I did get carried away describing what I saw in a model run, at the same time that a few others, including you, did the same thing.

Sorry, yo!

by **Snow88** Sat Dec 23, 2017 1:40 am

Euro is a near miss

It is now focusing on the 1st vort like the other models are doing

I like where we stand

Goodnight

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 23, 2017 1:49 am

Snow88 wrote:Euro is a near miss

It is now focusing on the 1st vort like the other models are doing

I like where we stand

Goodnight

compared to 12z its so far offshore not even comparable but its ok this far out,

by **Snow88** Sat Dec 23, 2017 1:54 am

The vort behind the near miss looks very good now

So many vorts in this flow

by **Snow88** Sat Dec 23, 2017 1:55 am

Looks like a nice snow event for NYE on the Euro

Euro still doesn't know which wave to focus on

by **Radz** Sat Dec 23, 2017 8:10 am

Snow88 wrote:Looks like a nice snow event for NYE on the Euro

Euro still doesn't know which wave to focus on

6z GFS followed suit - weaker and further east, hopefully final solution will be in between this and the 40" Euro run we saw lol

by Guest Sat Dec 23, 2017 9:04 am

SENJsnowman wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
SENJsnowman wrote:So far it's got over 50 straight hours of snow over the entire dc to nyc corridor. holy moly!

LISTEN. SCREW THESE SNOW MAPS! I PROMISE YOU THAT IF IT SNOWS FOR 50 STRAIGHT HOURS WITH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND 20 DEGREES WE WOULD HAVE 60”. FIVE FEET. LETS ALL CHILLAX

Ummm...are you telling me to chillax in all CAPS?

OK, fine. I did get carried away describing what I saw in a model run, at the same time that a few others, including you, did the same thing.

Sorry, yo!

Wasn’t talking to you SENJ. I was poking fun at all of us

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 23, 2017 9:30 am

Man a 952mb snowicant east of the bm swing and a miss but you never know.

by **Snow88** Sat Dec 23, 2017 9:48 am

PNA is forecasted to go positive around next weekend

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

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