Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

by **mikeypizano** Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:47 pm

I'm just going to sit here, drink my beer, and watch Elf... :p

by Carter bk Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:51 pm

Banter guys lets just get ready for the next storm

by **MattyICE** Wed Dec 27, 2017 7:09 pm

I’m interested (when I get a second I promise to do my own digging) in if any of you see something more promising on current guidance for the jan 4th potential that may make it more credible than the favorable guidance we saw last week that has since materially diminished. And if so, what specifically? My first look leans a bit toward there being a bit more consensus amongst the globals this time around for next week? No rush on answers. Thanks.

by **billg315** Wed Dec 27, 2017 8:13 pm

I'll offer my take, which may not be popular here. The short answer is no. The models often have consensus on the wrong solution. I've always believed that anything beyond about five days in terms of specific weather forecasting (not things like general patterns, or above-or-below normal temperatures -- which can sometimes be gleaned a couple weeks out -- but rather specific "will it rain or snow on this particular day"-type forecasts) is barely better than guesswork. It's fun to watch, speculate, and track, but nobody should ever bet their house on a forecast 8 days out, unless you're comfortable losing your house.

by **skinsfan1177** Wed Dec 27, 2017 8:14 pm

billg315 wrote:I'll offer my take, which may not be popular here. The short answer is no. The models often have consensus on the wrong solution. I've always believed that anything beyond about five days in terms of specific weather forecasting (not things like general patterns, or above-or-below normal temperatures -- which can sometimes be gleaned a couple weeks out -- but rather specific "will it rain or snow on this particular day"-type forecasts) is barely better than guesswork. It's fun to watch, speculate, and track, but nobody should ever bet their house on a forecast 8 days out, unless you're comfortable losing your house.

I second this

by **amugs** Wed Dec 27, 2017 9:37 pm

Okay now back to the LR here.
Why does the pattern loo so good it because what is happening in Russia and the EAMT East Asian Mountain Torque which is causing a massive WPAC wave break which will in turn pump the epo negative but also aid in pumping the PNA or West Coast ridge.
When the TV is relaxing is when you get storms and some good ones. I'll post maps when I get to my computer

by Guest Wed Dec 27, 2017 9:44 pm

Sounds good Mugs but we've gone o for 2 here now looks like the last week. Tough to get enthused for another

by **aiannone** Wed Dec 27, 2017 9:54 pm

0z NAM trended a bit wetter for the coast this weekend.

by **aiannone** Wed Dec 27, 2017 9:56 pm

by Guest Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:08 pm

How much QPF did the NAM show. Alex. We will be near 20:1. Won't take much

by **aiannone** Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:29 pm

about .15

by Guest Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:33 pm

Wetter? .15. That's a good flurry

by **jmanley32** Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:36 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Wetter? .15. That's a good flurry

lol coundlt been said better. so 1-2 inches, big whoop.

by **aiannone** Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:37 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Wetter? .15. That's a good flurry

Well the 18z was completely dry and we still have a couple days left

by **oldtimer** Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:41 pm

Is that .15 including virga? lol

by Guest Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:43 pm

True Alex. Here's to hope

by **aiannone** Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:52 pm

0z GFS was just a couple hours away from a nice event on the coast. Much different look than 18z which was bone dry. 0z has light snow with mod snow just off the coast