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Long Range Thread 15.0

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Post by MattyICE Wed Dec 27, 2017 7:09 pm

I’m interested (when I get a second I promise to do my own digging) in if any of you see something more promising on current guidance for the jan 4th potential that may make it more credible than the favorable guidance we saw last week that has since materially diminished. And if so, what specifically? My first look leans a bit toward there being a bit more consensus amongst the globals this time around for next week? No rush on answers. Thanks.

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Post by billg315 Wed Dec 27, 2017 8:13 pm

I'll offer my take, which may not be popular here. The short answer is no. The models often have consensus on the wrong solution. I've always believed that anything beyond about five days in terms of specific weather forecasting (not things like general patterns, or above-or-below normal temperatures -- which can sometimes be gleaned a couple weeks out -- but rather specific "will it rain or snow on this particular day"-type forecasts) is barely better than guesswork. It's fun to watch, speculate, and track, but nobody should ever bet their house on a forecast 8 days out, unless you're comfortable losing your house.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Dec 27, 2017 8:14 pm

@billg315 wrote:I'll offer my take, which may not be popular here. The short answer is no. The models often have consensus on the wrong solution. I've always believed that anything beyond about five days in terms of specific weather forecasting (not things like general patterns, or above-or-below normal temperatures -- which can sometimes be gleaned a couple weeks out -- but rather specific "will it rain or snow on this particular day"-type forecasts) is barely better than guesswork. It's fun to watch, speculate, and track, but nobody should ever bet their house on a forecast 8 days out, unless you're comfortable losing your house.

I second this
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Post by amugs Wed Dec 27, 2017 9:37 pm

Okay now back to the LR here.
Why does the pattern loo so good it because what is happening in Russia and the EAMT East Asian Mountain Torque which is causing a massive WPAC wave break which will in turn pump the epo negative but also aid in pumping the PNA or West Coast ridge.
When the TV is relaxing is when you get storms and some good ones. I'll post maps when I get to my computer

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Post by Guest Wed Dec 27, 2017 9:44 pm

Sounds good Mugs but we've gone o for 2 here now looks like the last week. Tough to get enthused for another

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Post by aiannone Wed Dec 27, 2017 9:54 pm

0z NAM trended a bit wetter for the coast this weekend.
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Post by aiannone Wed Dec 27, 2017 9:56 pm

Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 40 DSFB-RgUIAA8DEk?format=jpg
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Post by Guest Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:08 pm

How much QPF did the NAM show. Alex. We will be near 20:1. Won't take much

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Post by aiannone Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:29 pm

about .15
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Post by Guest Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:33 pm

Wetter? .15. That's a good flurry

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:36 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Wetter?  .15. That's a good flurry
lol coundlt been said better. so 1-2 inches, big whoop.
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Post by aiannone Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:37 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Wetter?  .15. That's a good flurry
Well the 18z was completely dry and we still have a couple days left
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Post by oldtimer Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:41 pm

Is that .15 including virga? lol

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Post by Guest Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:43 pm

True Alex. Here's to hope

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Post by aiannone Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:52 pm

0z GFS was just a couple hours away from a nice event on the coast. Much different look than 18z which was bone dry. 0z has light snow with mod snow just off the coast
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Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:52 pm

GFS coming in more amped with weekend clipper.
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Post by amugs Wed Dec 27, 2017 11:12 pm

CMC which has been on fire since it's major upgrade is saying white matter lives LOL!!

Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 40 Gem_ms10

Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 40 IMG_0467.PNG.7b18e17c0959376627ae59d81db55adc

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Post by amugs Wed Dec 27, 2017 11:18 pm

Would be a solid 2-4" storm for ,NJ coast and LI

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Post by oldtimer Wed Dec 27, 2017 11:23 pm

From your lips to Gods ears.

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Post by Guest Thu Dec 28, 2017 12:27 am

2-4" per hour I hope Mugs?

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Post by Math23x7 Thu Dec 28, 2017 12:38 am

syosnow94 wrote:2-4" per hour I hope Mugs?

2-4" total, not per hour

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Post by Guest Thu Dec 28, 2017 2:27 am

I know math it was sarcasm buddy

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Post by rb924119 Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:39 am

Well the EURO is having flashbacks ahahahaha god darnit here we go again lmaooo

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 28, 2017 5:42 am

Euro showed Godzilla for storm threat January 4th.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 28, 2017 5:44 am

Most members of the euro ensembles also on board

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