NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Long Range Thread 16.0

+44
snowday111
HectorO
Grselig
essexcountypete
Snow88
mwilli5783
WeatherBob
NjWeatherGuy
Dunnzoo
jake732
aiannone
crippo84
bobjohnsonforthehall
Scullybutcher
algae888
dsix85
dkodgis
sroc4
emokid51783
Math23x7
Sanchize06
docstox12
billg315
oldtimer
CPcantmeasuresnow
skinsfan1177
Quietace
SENJsnowman
lglickman1
hyde345
MattyICE
Carter bk
RJB8525
jimv45
amugs
GreyBeard
weatherwatchermom
SoulSingMG
nutleyblizzard
mikeypizano
rb924119
frank 638
jmanley32
Frank_Wx
48 posters

Page 5 of 40 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ... 22 ... 40  Next

Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Sanchize06 December 29th 2017, 5:09 pm

Minor improvements on the 18z GFS compared to 12z. ULL in the pacific is a little further away allowing for better ridging in the west, which allows a better looking trough here in the east, still OTS, but better.


Last edited by Sanchize06 on December 29th 2017, 5:43 pm; edited 1 time in total

Sanchize06
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1041
Join date : 2013-02-05

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by MattyICE December 29th 2017, 5:21 pm

Agreed. Also, though I know how unimportant surface maps are this far out, the surface LP came a good 150 miles west from minor changes aloft. With a setup as delicate as this, based so much on timing, very minor changes at H5 will continue to mean significant shifts...hopefully only to the West Wink. Every option still very much alive.

MattyICE
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 249
Join date : 2017-11-10

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Sanchize06 December 29th 2017, 5:46 pm

MattyICE wrote:Agreed. Also, though I know how unimportant surface maps are this far out, the surface LP came a good 150 miles west from minor changes aloft. With a setup as delicate as this, based so much on timing, very minor changes at H5 will continue to mean significant shifts...hopefully only to the West Wink. Every option still very much alive.

Yeah, was nice to see the OP run come in west since 12z ensembles were west. That low west of California is going to have a big impact on the flow and where this storm sets up. Good sign seeing it move west some, allows for our storm to come west as well.

Sanchize06
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1041
Reputation : 21
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Union Beach, NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Sanchize06 December 29th 2017, 6:06 pm

18z GEFS seems to have some more west members than 12z

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 5 Gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_25

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 5 Gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_26

Sanchize06
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1041
Reputation : 21
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Union Beach, NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by docstox12 December 29th 2017, 7:12 pm

OK, now THIS is the scenario I like with these long ranges.Start out with a miss and SLOWLY bring it back west inch by inch each run.Reminds me of the Boxing Day Blizzard, was OTS, then 1 to 3 inches then BAM,LOL.Will history repeat? ...... stay tuned!
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 8472
Reputation : 222
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 73
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jmanley32 December 29th 2017, 7:14 pm

I think we are wishcasting but time will tell.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by amugs December 29th 2017, 8:06 pm

We said what is needed and just because the models OP show OTS 6 days out we call this wishcasting? Common it is not wishcasting but recognizing the potential.of the pattern.  We have dozens of examples of hemisphere set ups that have gone from OTS to SECs, MECS and HECS - 1983, 1994, 2003, 2010, 2016 etc.
Look at the improvement out west in this gif from another board. Give it time and by Monday 12z if not Tuesday well have much better sampling of the energy. West coast is where this majorly will be decided on what we get or don't. That Ridge axis is crucial since we don't have a N NAO to help. A 50/50 is going to be there but the timing of that is important.as well.earlier the better in the time frame imo.
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 5 1367B978-9075-4FA8-B71C-F48622311DF9.gif.c870c3bd794edc6fc3dcdc40ce377773

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by rb924119 December 29th 2017, 9:55 pm

Interesting subtleties afoot in the 00z NAM......

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by nutleyblizzard December 29th 2017, 9:59 pm

rb924119 wrote:Interesting subtleties afoot in the 00z NAM......
Really? Please enlighten us.
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1951
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 57
Location : Nutley, new jersey

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by mikeypizano December 29th 2017, 10:02 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Interesting subtleties afoot in the 00z NAM......
Really? Please enlighten us.

RB is such a tease...
mikeypizano
mikeypizano
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1118
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2017-01-05
Age : 35
Location : Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by rb924119 December 29th 2017, 10:06 pm

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 5 Nam_z510

Most important difference is look at how the lead energy over the Great Plains lags much further behind compared to 18z, which reduces the wave spacing between the second piece and itself by about 500 miles. Also notice that the ridge between the two is more muted in the 00z frame, which further increases the odds of a downstream interaction (earlier). Lastly, the upper-level low is lagged slightly, and our ridge looks more appealing both in it's overall shape and placement about 100 miles further west.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by rb924119 December 29th 2017, 10:08 pm

If we could then get the lead energy to hang back far enough to where it then separates from the rest of the PV streamer that extends northeastward along the eastern flank of the long wave trough.....look out.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by rb924119 December 29th 2017, 10:12 pm

Now you got me curious......

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by rb924119 December 29th 2017, 10:18 pm

00z NAM:

Focus on the energy diving southward through south-central Canada and the lead energy/trough through the Great Plains:

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 5 Screen14

28/1200z EURO Op (the one we were drooling over):

Focus on those same two pieces of energy/troughs and their locations:

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 5 Screen15

Remarkably similar, in my opinion, with the EURO's lead energy being a little stronger than the 00z NAM. Now, extrapolation is a very risky endeavor, to say the least, but I'm intrigued with the prospect of where that NAM run might have headed if it went out further.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by mikeypizano December 29th 2017, 10:33 pm

Guess just have to wait and see until the storms within the NAM range huh?
mikeypizano
mikeypizano
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1118
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2017-01-05
Age : 35
Location : Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by amugs December 29th 2017, 10:56 pm

+EAMT yet again forces another 'jet extension', that makes a wave break, that helps form another -EPO ridge. Which will provide Eastern US favourability. I can't promise it, but the signs look good. But there's no support from the MJO though.

From a NE Met on another biard. Hmm gives us hope for January and extendin this winter before the thaw,

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by rb924119 December 29th 2017, 10:58 pm

So it looks like the lagging of he lead energy might be real.......GFS has now continued the trend of this at 00z.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by rb924119 December 29th 2017, 10:59 pm

I'll be willing to bet that we see the GFS come further west than 18z. Probably even further west than the 18z Ensembles.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by rb924119 December 29th 2017, 11:08 pm

This run will probably put New England back in the game, at least.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by amugs December 29th 2017, 11:25 pm

Nice improved H5 out west. That is my focus.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by amugs December 29th 2017, 11:31 pm

Better Ridge put west and closed off 50/50 forming NE of Newfoundland. Get these a tad more and we have major downstream and upstream effects in a positive way. A hair of this movement is a couple hundred miles in the track.

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 5 5a470f3beb498_Screenshot2017-12-2922_59_34.png.6d94597d4f62d729d394de291bb76e20

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by nutleyblizzard December 29th 2017, 11:40 pm

I'm hearing the UKIE came west.
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1951
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 57
Location : Nutley, new jersey

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by nutleyblizzard December 29th 2017, 11:43 pm

Let me rephrase that. UKIE came way west!!!
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1951
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 57
Location : Nutley, new jersey

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by amugs December 29th 2017, 11:46 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:Let me rephrase that. UKIE came way west!!!

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 5 GZ_D5_PN_144_0000

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by amugs December 29th 2017, 11:49 pm

Look at the Ridge out west and the HP off just NE of Newfoundland that has the markings of a big storm.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Frank_Wx December 30th 2017, 12:04 am

The 00z GEFS are west of the OP which is a red flag. Everything has been trending west since 18z. Interesting EURO run tonight. We're still far away from knowing the final outcome on this one.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21301
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jmanley32 December 30th 2017, 12:55 am

Well looks like so far tonight's runs have brought some hope back. Gfs came back well west cmc west and ukie is inside benchmark by cape cod. I take back my earlier statement for now.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 5 of 40 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ... 22 ... 40  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum