Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

by **billg315** Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:17 pm

The South American model is waaay west.

by **jimv45** Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:18 pm

Still a lot of winter to go let's hope a big storm is in our future and please not a rainstorm.

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:18 pm

Oh now we are stretching things what the heck is the Sam? Please post a pic how far west on a model we have never spoken of.

by **nutleyblizzard** Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:18 pm

The lack of any blocking is killing us. Pattern is too progressive.

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:21 pm

jimv45 wrote:Still a lot of winter to go let's hope a big storm is in our future and please not a rainstorm.

oh you can bet it'll be a big rainstorm. We will see snow but I bet our thaw will be above avg precip in rain.

by **billg315** Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:24 pm

The SAM is a little warm but it could trend east. It usually has a warm bias, but it is warm down there.
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 14 Cc1fcf10

by **aiannone** Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:26 pm

billg315 wrote:The SAM is a little warm but it could trend east. It usually has a warm bias, but it is warm down there.

Yea because it’s South American and all, sometimes it’s a bit too warm. But it’s in a good position this far out IMO

by **nutleyblizzard** Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:27 pm

billg315 wrote:The SAM is a little warm but it could trend east. It usually has a warm bias, but it is warm down there.

All hail our new king! The South American model! facepalm

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:28 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
billg315 wrote:The SAM is a little warm but it could trend east. It usually has a warm bias, but it is warm down there.

All hail our new king! The South American model!

just what I was thinking never in njstrong have we mentioned this model. Lol we are really a sad bunch of weenies

by **crippo84** Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:32 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
billg315 wrote:The SAM is a little warm but it could trend east. It usually has a warm bias, but it is warm down there.

All hail our new king! The South American model!

Hilarious!!

by **hyde345** Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:39 pm

I hear the Mongolian model is a coastal bomb. Smile

by **billg315** Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:40 pm

hyde345 wrote:I hear the Mongolian model is a coastal bomb.

Lmao

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:40 pm

If the euro is west I'd say maybe the other models were hiccups it is possible the euro was right from that first weenie run it has been the so called king and as dunzoo reminded me in banter one model run isn't a trend so let's pray this swings back west to 12z or even further at 06z and 12z tomorrow.

by **SoulSingMG** Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:43 pm

Usually when I refresh the page and see two new pages of a thread, it's because of good news. This is quite the contrary. Mad

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:44 pm

billg315 wrote:
hyde345 wrote:I hear the Mongolian model is a coastal bomb.
Lmao

This is too much LOL,

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:44 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Usually when I refresh the page and see two new pages of a thread, it's because of good news. This is quite the contrary.

yep ya got that right.

by **Dunnzoo** Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:46 pm

just havin' a little fun guys and gals, there is a storm signal and that's all that matters, enjoy the weekend and Happy New Year y'all!

by **billg315** Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:49 pm

aiannone wrote:
billg315 wrote:The SAM is a little warm but it could trend east. It usually has a warm bias, but it is warm down there.

Yea because it’s South American and all, sometimes it’s a bit too warm. But it’s in a good position this far out IMO

The thing I worry about Alex is that the SAM is programmed in the Southern Hemisphere where air flow is reversed (in the “upside down”). So I hope that doesn’t mean when it’s waay west it’s actually east? Hmm.

by **aiannone** Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:52 pm

billg315 wrote:
aiannone wrote:
billg315 wrote:The SAM is a little warm but it could trend east. It usually has a warm bias, but it is warm down there.

Yea because it’s South American and all, sometimes it’s a bit too warm. But it’s in a good position this far out IMO

The thing I worry about Alex is that the SAM is programmed in the Southern Hemisphere where air flow is reversed (in the “upside down”). So I hope that doesn’t mean when it’s waay west it’s actually east? Hmm.

Well you are forgetting about the quasi-rotational reverse flow that adjusts for North American systems so with that in mind this is actually a west trend

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:59 pm

aiannone wrote:
billg315 wrote:
aiannone wrote:
billg315 wrote:The SAM is a little warm but it could trend east. It usually has a warm bias, but it is warm down there.

Yea because it’s South American and all, sometimes it’s a bit too warm. But it’s in a good position this far out IMO

The thing I worry about Alex is that the SAM is programmed in the Southern Hemisphere where air flow is reversed (in the “upside down”). So I hope that doesn’t mean when it’s waay west it’s actually east? Hmm.

Well you are forgetting about the quasi-rotational reverse flow that adjusts for North American systems so with that in mind this is actually a west trend

The SAM was upgraded last month and the quasi rotational reverse flow has been adjusted into the model. However it has never been adjusted for the sun angles this time of year in the southern vs northern hemisphere and that's why the warm bias. The map should be adjusted and 10C subtracted, this will show quite the snow storm with those adjustments.

by **jmanley32** Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:00 am

is anyone go be serious and see the euro or should we not bother? I have no access anymore so I rely on you guys to post images.

by **aiannone** Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:02 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
aiannone wrote:
billg315 wrote:
aiannone wrote:
billg315 wrote:The SAM is a little warm but it could trend east. It usually has a warm bias, but it is warm down there.

Yea because it’s South American and all, sometimes it’s a bit too warm. But it’s in a good position this far out IMO

The thing I worry about Alex is that the SAM is programmed in the Southern Hemisphere where air flow is reversed (in the “upside down”). So I hope that doesn’t mean when it’s waay west it’s actually east? Hmm.

Well you are forgetting about the quasi-rotational reverse flow that adjusts for North American systems so with that in mind this is actually a west trend

The SAM was upgraded last month and the quasi rotational reverse flow has been adjusted into the model. However it has never been adjusted for the sun angles this time of year in the southern vs northern hemisphere and that's why the warm bias. The map should be adjusted and 10C subtracted, this will show quite the snow storm with those adjustments.

I agree to an extent. I wouldn’t say subtract 10C bc of the latest sunspots we just noticed. More like subtract 9.7C

by **sroc4** Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:19 am

If your bailing now because of the 00 z then you are not allowed back into the discussion when thenwind shield wipers swing back the other way. Just saying. Your in or your out.

by **nutleyblizzard** Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:24 am

GEFS are west.

by **nutleyblizzard** Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:36 am

sroc4 wrote:If your bailing now because of the 00 z then you are not allowed back into the discussion when then wind shield wipers swing back the other way. Just saying. Your in or your out.

I'm not leaving for two reasons. First of all lately the models have been improperly showing the northern stream too weak, only to correct itself once proper sampling is made. Second, on numerous occasions coastal lows have trended westward inside 48 hours. Just a couple of important details to keep mind of.

by **jmanley32** Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:37 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:GEFS are west.

Hmm now see that was my hope, i remember you guys always saying if ensembles are west then operational is junk.

by **jmanley32** Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:37 am

sroc4 wrote:If your bailing now because of the 00 z then you are not allowed back into the discussion when then wind shield wipers swing back the other way. Just saying. Your in or your out.

Just had a momentary irritation im back and will stick it out through.

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