Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

by **sroc4** Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:07 pm

I’ll reiterate. This is an extremely complex set up. Do not be surprised to see trends to cont up inside of 24-48hrs. There is so much vorticity. Like I said this morning where will the main LP Center be? Will there be a large IVT axis or one consolidated low? And how much earlier can we get phasing? 12hrs earlier and everything shifts west. Northern stream energy will not be properly sampled for another 24-30hrs at the earliest. Look where the northern energy currently sits.

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 19 982ba310

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 19 982ba310

by **aiannone** Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:10 pm

Should we start a thread for this?

by **mikeypizano** Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:12 pm

by Guest Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:15 pm

rb924119 wrote:UK is about 50-100 miles east of the BM

Where was it the prior run?

by Guest Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:16 pm

mikeypizano wrote:

This means less than zero Mikey. These forecasts are useless. I’m on LI and TWC has me for no snow!

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:18 pm

12z EPS portrays a better ridge and stronger southern s/w. Even the northern s/w is trying to enter the CONUS faster in response to the better ridge. Nice trends so far this run.

by **billg315** Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:20 pm

mikeypizano wrote:

I wouldn’t put much stock in these phone app projections (TWC/Accu/etc), especially about 4 days out. They seem to simply take whatever the current gfs shows and adopt it verbatim as their 5-10 day forecast. They don’t compare and analyze various model solutions and don’t really factor in model weaknesses (like offshore convection feedback issues). They change, sometimes dramatically, every 6 hours.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:22 pm

Most glaring change to my on the EPS so far is the ridge and southern s/w. Both improved.

by **mikeypizano** Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:23 pm

In this case it updates every hour! i don't buy it at all...

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:24 pm

Oh...much more phasing now happening at hour 66 between southern and northern s/w.

by **weatherwatchermom** Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:27 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Oh...much more phasing now happening at hour 66 between southern and northern s/w.

thats good right

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:27 pm

Evolution at H5 is much improved over 00z run. How this translates at the surface is too early to say, but I would bet the EPS will be west of the OP...

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:28 pm

Lots of indies that are west or leaning west. Nice run.

by Guest Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:29 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Lots of indies that are west or leaning west. Nice run.

To my eye this would be a BM track

by **sroc4** Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:29 pm

00z vs 12z EPS

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 19 259e7f10

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 19 B13a3e10

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:29 pm

https://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/i/user-images/5a493a753deeb.png

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 19 5a493a85b1af3

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 19 5a493a96a9614

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 19 5a493aa5d30b7

by **dsix85** Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:33 pm

Frank-Maddonneee worthy again?

by **SoulSingMG** Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:34 pm

sroc4 wrote:00z vs 12z EPS

That's great improvement!

by **billg315** Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:37 pm

The PAC ridge has looked pretty amplified on most of the runs since last night. The models seem to keep trying to pull this west. Trough is digging deep in the east. The cold air is in place. Possible model issues with Low placement offshore. I just feel like this set-up is ripe for us to see all the models by tomorrow night bring this storm inside the BM and give us a decent storm. Maybe I’m wrong but on the whole the overall setup seems right for us.

by **algae888** Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:40 pm

billg315 wrote:The PAC ridge has looked pretty amplified on most of the runs since last night. The models seem to keep trying to pull this west. Trough is digging deep in the east. The cold air is in place. Possible model issues with Low placement offshore. I just feel like this set-up is ripe for us to see all the models by tomorrow night bring this storm inside the BM and give us a decent storm. Maybe I’m wrong but on the whole the overall setup seems right for us.

I agree bill you can also add in that the models notoriously underestimate the Northwest precipitation Shield. With a storm this strong a track anywhere near the benchmark should produce a lot of snow for a lot of the Region

by **docstox12** Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:40 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
sroc4 wrote:00z vs 12z EPS

That's great improvement!

I would say at this juncture, this is a great improvement.Trending very nicely.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:43 pm

This is no longer long range. I began a thread.

by **jmanley32** Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:44 pm

docstox12 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
sroc4 wrote:00z vs 12z EPS

That's great improvement!

I would say at this juncture, this is a great improvement.Trending very nicely.

Look at how much deeper the overall indies are too, getting into the blues, wow.

by **aiannone** Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:18 pm

by **billg315** Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:22 pm

aiannone wrote:WOW!

Ah big warmup coming I see. Shocked

by **aiannone** Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:27 pm

billg315 wrote:
aiannone wrote:WOW!
Ah big warmup coming I see.

Hopefully the SAM is a bit warmer lol

by Sponsored content