Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Of course the mother***** GFS just came WEST. I can’t.

Lee Goldberg was a little confusing right now...he seems to be leaving the door open to this being a bigger storm??

Dunnzoo wrote:RGEM looks nice....a tick more west with precip.

Janet this isn’t a nice hit. It’s less precip than the NAM and on par with the gfs

NWS updated their discussion. Just like our man Quietace - they are still monitoring model trends for shifts in track for a bit longer.

Main question is what kind of shift in the track this storm
takes. Any shift to the west, would mean heavier snow for more
of the CWA. A shift to the east would mean less snow. This will
need to be watched over the next few model runs.

The situation remains fluid based on model spread, with
potential for these numbers to go down, but it seems more so
upwards based on model trends. This potential is reflected in
latest WFO/WPC snow probs, with low-moderate prob of greater
than 6 inches of snow across E LI/SE CT, and a 1 in 10 chance of
seeing more than 8-14 inches of snow across the entire area.

SoulSingMG wrote:Of course the mother***** GFS just came WEST. I can’t.

this storm is just crazy...

weatherwatchermom wrote:Lee Goldberg was a little confusing right now...he seems to be leaving the door open to this being a bigger storm??

I think we're all confused LOL this storm is giving me a headache I think Scott was spot-on when he said the other day that we won't know until we're about 24 hours out and even inside of 24 hours this storm can take 20-30 miles either direction which would have significant impacts on snowfall totals

syosnow94 wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:RGEM looks nice....a tick more west with precip.

Janet this isn’t a nice hit.  It’s less precip than the NAM and on par with the gfs

Better for us Jersey folks!

For now The Goldberg was saying 1 to 3 in north and west of the city . 3 to possibly for 4 for city and Nassau County too much as 6 in Suffolk County

algae888 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:Lee Goldberg was a little confusing right now...he seems to be leaving the door open to this being a bigger storm??

I think we're all confused LOL this storm is giving me a headache I think Scott was spot-on when he said the other day that we won't know until we're about 24 hours out and even inside of 24 hours this storm can take 20-30 miles either direction which would have significant impacts on snowfall totals

Especially with such sharp cutoffs, NYC could end up with a bunch and NENJ can get a coating

Now let's see what Lonnie Quinn have to say

All the local Mets will be very conservative. They can’t make a call and it busts. Plus they can’t spread panic. No one will be higher than 3-6” tonight

Syosnow do u think by Tom snow Totals will go up for everyone

Gfs shifted west again

algae888 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:Lee Goldberg was a little confusing right now...he seems to be leaving the door open to this being a bigger storm??

I think we're all confused LOL this storm is giving me a headache I think Scott was spot-on when he said the other day that we won't know until we're about 24 hours out and even inside of 24 hours this storm can take 20-30 miles either direction which would have significant impacts on snowfall totals

yes...and are you sleeping...saw your posts at all hours of the night...lol. (they are appreciated! and noticed)...and I have a headache too...went to the grocery store...I shop every Tues and what is a nice quiet afternoon usually sipping a tea and shopping...turned into a nightmare...someone ran their cart into the back of my foot and the lines were long...arrrr... I guess its the winnie in all of us that keeps us glued to our screens....

Hoping we all get a nice surprise!!

frank 638 wrote:Syosnow do u think by Tom snow Totals will go up for everyone

Your asking the wrong guy but My gut says yes. I wanna see the short range models trend wetter. Franks pessimism is worrisome though

12zvs18z

I just cannot and will not wrap my head around a SUB 960 LP AT THE BM NOT CRUSHING US ALL. It goes against EVERYTHING I’ve ever known about snowstorms

skinsfan1177 wrote:12zvs18z

Great graphic Skins.

That's a very significant jump for LI and NJ.

syosnow94 wrote:I just cannot and will not wrap my head around a SUB 960 LP AT THE BM NOT CRUSHING US ALL.  It goes against EVERYTHING I’ve ever known about snowstorms

I can't either but it must go almost due E slight ENE before it reaches our latitude, otherwise I would think we all get buried. I've resigned myself to 2-4 for my area, anything above that will be a bonus.

You bring a bombing lp from the Bahamas loaded with moisture strong as a hurricane up to the BM into FRIGID arctic air and we only get 3-6” while Florida gets 2-3”. Something’s not right.

syosnow94 wrote:I just cannot and will not wrap my head around a SUB 960 LP AT THE BM NOT CRUSHING US ALL.  It goes against EVERYTHING I’ve ever known about snowstorms

Its strange I know but from what I understand we don't really want it so strong. When its this strong the precip field doesn't expand. But lets not forget how models like to over do the pressure we want it like 980mb

Holy crap!!! What a change in that new HDRPS!!!! 200 miles west with the leading precip as far west as Harrisburg!!! Idk how good it is, but it may be a little hope aha

I noticed with the 18z GFS that between the hours from 42-48 the storm is slower compared to the 12z run. Is it a start of a trend or a blip with the run? Something to watch for at 0z.

rb924119 wrote:Holy crap!!! What a change in that new HDRPS!!!! 200 miles west with the leading precip as far west as Harrisburg!!! Idk how good it is, but it may be a little hope aha

The WHO?!?!

SoulSingMG wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Holy crap!!! What a change in that new HDRPS!!!! 200 miles west with the leading precip as far west as Harrisburg!!! Idk how good it is, but it may be a little hope aha

The WHO?!?!

It's the Hi-Res RGEM haha Started yesterday i think lol

nutleyblizzard wrote:I noticed with the 18z GFS that between the hours from 42-48 the storm is slower compared to the 12z run. Is it a start of a trend or a blip with the run? Something to watch for at 0z.

That's probably the model trying to draw the surface feature into the mid-level low; that is a decelerating process. However, it then jumps the surface low out again before it's finally captured. I just don't understand the jump that's progged. I truly don't.

Jman you got your ears on???? This model has 85 knot winds AT THE SURFACE over the water. That's almost cat-2 lol