Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:40 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:I noticed with the 18z GFS that between the hours from 42-48 the storm is slower compared to the 12z run. Is it a start of a trend or a blip with the run? Something to watch for at 0z.

That's probably the model trying to draw the surface feature into the mid-level low; that is a decelerating process. However, it then jumps the surface low out again before it's finally captured. I just don't understand the jump that's progged. I truly don't.

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:47 pm

Jman you got your ears on???? This model has 85 knot winds AT THE SURFACE over the water. That's almost cat-2 lol

by **mikeypizano** Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:00 pm

What about the HRDPS? It’s west!

by **MattyICE** Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:03 pm

Good sign. Though I think it’s ideal range is inside of 18 hours.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:03 pm

mikeypizano wrote:What about the HRDPS? It’s west!

I admire your spirit Mikey but N & W, and you're a lot further west than me, looks pretty bleak.

by **mikeypizano** Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:10 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:What about the HRDPS? It’s west!

I admire your spirit Mikey but N & W, and you're a lot further west than me, looks pretty bleak.

I got money riding in this! Shocked

by **weatherwatchermom** Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:14 pm

Just flipped on Channel 2 Lonnie has his jacket on...bad sign.... Laughing

by **skinsfan1177** Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:14 pm

WOW GEFS ENSEMBLES LOOK GREAT Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 32 Snowfa13

by mwilli5783 Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:18 pm

i want judge and stanton 2 get there bats 2 gether and pull this storm to the west..enuff already

by **RJB8525** Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:18 pm

We all need to head to Maine

by **jimv45** Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:19 pm

for who? I see a lot of bad on there.

by Guest Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:22 pm

Skins I love ya but they look horrific. That's as bad as it gets no. Red Sox Suck is getting crushed we suck virga. The avg has to be no more than 4" imby and I'm in central LI

by bobjohnsonforthehall Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:24 pm

rb924119 wrote:Holy crap!!! What a change in that new HDRPS!!!! 200 miles west with the leading precip as far west as Harrisburg!!! Idk how good it is, but it may be a little hope aha

What are your thoughts on the tightening precipitation shield that Frank has posted about? I'm in red alert zone for "showers to an inch" if the shield keeps puckering up tighter than Ebenizer Scrooge's balloon knot.

by **skinsfan1177** Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:31 pm

by **amugs** Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:34 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:I just cannot and will not wrap my head around a SUB 960 LP AT THE BM NOT CRUSHING US ALL. It goes against EVERYTHING I’ve ever known about snowstorms

Its strange I know but from what I understand we don't really want it so strong. When its this strong the precip field doesn't expand. But lets not forget how models like to over do the pressure we want it like 980mb

So true, The 250/300 Jet contracts the precip field and with low level cold,dry air it doesn't allow this to expand as much but tighten it around or draws it to its center.

by **amugs** Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:43 pm

GEFS look wetter and better than before - hope this holds or trends better/wetter only so much we can go though

by **amugs** Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:54 pm

Look at the GEFS massive correction west - we need this as its western members are INSIDE THE BM - if they can come through then we see a secs from NNJ and LHV thorugh LI . There is hope but we must see what 0z, 6z and 12z do.

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 32 Gefseast.gif.0cacd5494f7370a41bc395f82f2241de

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 32 Gefseast.gif.0cacd5494f7370a41bc395f82f2241de

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:55 pm

Yes rb I'm try not think bout what we are missing out on a cat 2 snowicane. Blah I'm taking night off just checked in.

by **amugs** Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:56 pm

amugs wrote:Look at the GEFS massive correction west - we need this as its western members are INSIDE THE BM - if they can come through then we see a secs from NNJ and LHV thorugh LI .
There is hope but we must see what 0z, 6z and 12z do. Mid level dynamics can help or hurt within this dynamic as well by producing subsidence band or deform band. Very complex ugghhhh!!!

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:29 pm

Call me crazy but I think our lead energy looks like it's tilting already. If so, we will be in for quite a big surprise ahaha heights also look way high ahead of it already, which is a great sign.

by **aiannone** Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:34 pm

by **MattyICE** Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:38 pm

Cranky on twitter confirms an ahead of schedule start to a negative tilt!

by **hyde345** Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:41 pm

00z runs will be interesting.

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:47 pm

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/anim16wv.html

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 32 Img_1415

Or am I crazy?

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:51 pm

MattyICE wrote:Cranky on twitter confirms an ahead of schedule start to a negative tilt!

I was just gonna quote him on this! Haha

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:53 pm

I was going to post a snow map now but I am going to hold off until some of the 00z runs come in. There is too much uncertainty still. Would like another round of fresh data. So look for a new thread and map between 10-1030 tonight.

by **lglickman1** Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:53 pm

Did the models see this coming or is this something new?

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