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February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

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Post by aiannone Thu Feb 01, 2018 12:09 pm

@amugs wrote:
@Math23x7 wrote:0Z EURO shows this being an all rain event for much of the region.  IMHO, we come up empty from both the 2nd and the 5th.

Why? Cause the EURO shows it?

Let's remember the EURO showed this a snowstorm just a few days ago, and still is all over the place, along with other models, about the eventual track. Changes will likely occur again.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 01, 2018 12:13 pm

@aiannone wrote:
@amugs wrote:
@Math23x7 wrote:0Z EURO shows this being an all rain event for much of the region.  IMHO, we come up empty from both the 2nd and the 5th.

Why? Cause the EURO shows it?

Let's remember the EURO showed this a snowstorm just a few days ago, and still is all over the place, along with other models, about the eventual track. Changes will likely occur again.

You can see I have highlighted one of the quotes in my signature because of the above comment.

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Post by RJB8525 Thu Feb 01, 2018 12:26 pm

@docstox12 wrote:Hmmmmmmm, now NWS has me all snow for the Sunday event with a low chance of 6 inches.Way far out from the event so I'm sure this will flip then flop then flip then flop in true NWS fashion,LOL.

Saturday Night A chance of snow, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunday A chance of snow before 1pm, then rain and snow. High near 35. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Sunday Night Snow. Low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

this changed from yesterday lol, definitely more positive
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Post by docstox12 Thu Feb 01, 2018 1:59 pm

@RJB8525 wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:Hmmmmmmm, now NWS has me all snow for the Sunday event with a low chance of 6 inches.Way far out from the event so I'm sure this will flip then flop then flip then flop in true NWS fashion,LOL.

Saturday Night A chance of snow, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunday A chance of snow before 1pm, then rain and snow. High near 35. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Sunday Night Snow. Low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

this changed from yesterday lol, definitely more positive

RJB, hold on to your hat , there will probably be a dozen more before Sunday,LOL!
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Post by Guest Thu Feb 01, 2018 2:00 pm

Doesn't the GFS show rain as well?

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Post by frank 638 Thu Feb 01, 2018 2:28 pm

So I am guessing the city will see snow at first with no accumulation then we all go to rain

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Post by aiannone Thu Feb 01, 2018 3:28 pm

Update from Bernie: says no snow for 95. Well NW gets the snow
https://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/major-delays-friday-morning-weekend-snowstorm/f4bzi5yte6o0cnlleinxd2ssq527igk4?SearchForm-input=major%20delays%20friday%20morning;%20weekend%20storm
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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 01, 2018 4:26 pm

the best chance at snow for Sunday is if the precipitation comes in quickly enough the earlier the better and don't be surprised if that happens we also should be seeing a weaker system as models are usually over amplifying systems in the mid-range look for a weak a trend and a quicker start that's the best solution for snow even down to the coast
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Post by aiannone Thu Feb 01, 2018 5:00 pm

@algae888 wrote: the best chance at snow for Sunday is if the precipitation comes in quickly enough the earlier the better and don't be surprised if that happens we also should be seeing a weaker system as models are usually over amplifying systems in the mid-range look for a weak a trend and a quicker start that's the best solution for snow even down to the coast

Looks like the 18z gfs already started that trend lol
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Post by Snow88 Thu Feb 01, 2018 5:08 pm

@aiannone wrote:
@algae888 wrote: the best chance at snow for Sunday is if the precipitation comes in quickly enough the earlier the better and don't be surprised if that happens we also should be seeing a weaker system as models are usually over amplifying systems in the mid-range look for a weak a trend and a quicker start that's the best solution for snow even down to the coast

Looks like the 18z gfs already started that trend lol

Yep
18z GFS is weaker with the storm. Looks like a cold front.
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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 02, 2018 5:18 am

LOL, everytime I look at NWS forecast they flip then flop from rain/snow to all snow for me.Now they are saying 2 to 4 inches and all snow.That Rayno vid puts me right near the 6 inch snow line he drew out.We will see.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:56 am

Not a fan. Primary tracking N&W = warm mid-levels.

Expect wet rather than white.

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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:17 am

It's clear models are trending much weaker with the system and therefore colder. The same case for the Wednesday storm
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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:24 am

12z CMC pops a low off the coast with a colder soln:
February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible - Page 2 Captur57
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 02, 2018 1:08 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Not a fan. Primary tracking N&W = warm mid-levels.

Expect wet rather than white.

NWS buying which solution here? This would be nuts - talk about a gradient - Hillsdale 1-2" and Mahwah/Oakland 4 - 5""

February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible - Page 2 StormTotalSnowWeb1

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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 02, 2018 1:25 pm

@amugs wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Not a fan. Primary tracking N&W = warm mid-levels.

Expect wet rather than white.

NWS buying which solution here?  This would be nuts - talk about a gradient - Hillsdale 1-2" and Mahwah/Oakland 4 - 5""

February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible - Page 2 StormTotalSnowWeb1

Not buying that one Mugsy.NWS has me up here in the Lower Hudson Valley 2 to 5 inches.If you watched the Rayno video yesterday, I am right on the borderline of 6 inch plus.Unless this changes, looks like S and E will be rain on this one.Long time to go so we will see.
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Post by jimv45 Fri Feb 02, 2018 1:29 pm

Doc not buying any of it. Think it will be mostly rain for us, near Albany looks good.

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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 02, 2018 1:35 pm

@jimv45 wrote:Doc not buying any of it. Think it will be mostly rain for us, near Albany looks good.

OK jimv, guess we are going to have to see what happens.Your'e looking good according to Rayno.
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:04 pm

R/S Snow line is oh so frickin close - I can almost touch it.

N&W FTW -good hope u guys get a SECS

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February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible - Page 2 5a74ab40f268e_Euro63.thumb.PNG.8d5c4fd1ed796e00ed7a1e5874f9292d




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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:09 pm

@amugs wrote:R/S Snow line is oh so frickin close -  I can almost touch it.

N&W FTW -good hope u guys get a SECS

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lol, Mugsy, it goes right over the roof of my old house in Mahwah.
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:27 pm

DOC A royal kick in the groin as I am 8-9 miles SE of this by a crows flight

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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:54 pm

@amugs wrote:DOC A royal kick in the groin as I am 8-9 miles SE of this by a crows flight

LOL, Mugsy, you and Janet have to move out by Doc on the Island or up here with CP and Me.You two are in "no mans " errrr, I should say "no person's"land in Bergen County.Too far north and west for the Shore and Island big snows and too far South and low to get the elevation/better ratios CP and I have!
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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:42 pm

It's clear the models are trending towards a weaker system that pops a secondary low off the coast south of LI. That helps to shut off the WAA caused by the primary low and lead to a little bit colder of a soln, especially for the NW folks. Even the NAM and Euro have gone towards this idea and they were the furthest west and warmest of the guidance. it's possible even the coast could switch back over to snow towards the end of the event. Will keep an eye for more subsequent trends
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Post by docstox12 Sat Feb 03, 2018 6:01 am

Just read NWS, this is now mostly all rain as Frank had on the banner the last few days.Frank nailed it.From NWS 2 days ago 3 to 7 inches, now they say 1/2 inch! BUSTED! NEXT PLEASE!
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Post by dkodgis Sat Feb 03, 2018 8:08 am

What he said.

How disappointing is that? No snow for the average Joe. Again.
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