FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Math23x7 wrote:The 0Z GFS is closely in alignment to what I was mentioning earlier:

Math23x7 wrote:The 0Z GFS is closely in alignment to what I was mentioning earlier:

Math23x7 wrote:People were calling out the GFS for "Juno" regarding NYC snowfall.  Tom (NjWeatherGuy) has mentioned this in the past.

aiannone wrote:

Math23x7 wrote:People were calling out the GFS for "Juno" regarding NYC snowfall.  Tom (NjWeatherGuy) has mentioned this in the past.

Mikey you are going to base tmw’s forecast around its track record with one storm lol. Choosing to believe or not believe a model goes beyond just looking at its track record. You have to see that nearly all models take into account diabatic cooling, a vigorous shortwave that comes in enhancing precip and cooling the sfc. All of which the GFS doesn’t have. There is more to forecasting than going on stormvista and looking at green and blue shading

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

aiannone wrote:

Math23x7 wrote:People were calling out the GFS for "Juno" regarding NYC snowfall.  Tom (NjWeatherGuy) has mentioned this in the past.

Mikey you are going to base tmw’s forecast around its track record with one storm lol. Choosing to believe or not believe a model goes beyond just looking at its track record. You have to see that nearly all models take into account diabatic cooling, a vigorous shortwave that comes in enhancing precip and cooling the sfc. All of which the GFS doesn’t have. There is more to forecasting than going on stormvista and looking at green and blue shading

The GFS isn't a good model for this setup, I agree with those saying to toss. Especially considering the consistent modeling by all the other models in where the cold enough temps and heavy precip as well as good RH which supports the snow growth. This area has always been E-PA (Bucks area) CNJ and likely into the northern half of LI.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:I think the GFS is out to lunch here. Fairly strong confidence in a stripe of 4-8" about 10-20mi NW of 95, possibly reaching down to 95 and surrounding areas itself but less confidence to the SE. In that bullseye area to the NW we have the combo of likely a heavy period of precip and cold enough temps down to the surface to support snow tomorrow evening, likely to remain an all snow event for CNJ into E-PA and possibly the northern and western part of LI. However, there I am less confident due to potential mixing issues, but I'd say more likely than not to be a moderate snowfall there, probably 3-6". In short, I'm pretty much in line with where the NWS has it's WSW likely to turn to warnings early tomorrow morning.

sroc4 wrote:Here is my snow map.   I have not had as much time as I normally do to analyze this system.  The previous 2-3 systems have had an almost identical set up with mostly cold rain and little to no accumulation along the coast.  Therefore, Mikey could be correct in that this time may be no different.  Like the prev systems there will in fact be an HP retreating quickly east as the system approaches, and there will be an initial shift easterly and south easterly along the coast as the surface LP initially gets organized as it exits the EC right around the Delmarva; however, There are a few factors that I believe make this system dufferent than the prev ones.  First I believe this system is going to be much more organized/deeper/deepening than the prev ones as indicated by the strength of the northern vort., combined with some decent, but not great upper level jet streak dynamics.  Second the system appears that it will take a track off the DelMarVa and pass just S&E of the BM.  Prev systems tracks have been in much tighter.  This should allow the colder half of the baroclinic zone to remain far enough south.  With a deepening low, as apposed to weak LP simply traversing east, you likely will get the winds quickly shifting back out of the NE as the LP deepens and passes south of the area, and you'll get enhanced lift via marginal upper level dynamics, and baroclinicity; therefore, dynamic cooling in heavier bands will come into play along the coast keeping things colder.  The combined effects of the aforementioned reasons should keep the coast could enough to accumulate snow.  That said the last minute shift NW with the track is def a possibility and would cause my map below to bust along the coast so keep that in mind.  

aiannone wrote:Euro

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:WWA for 4-6 inches here. WSW's to the south are for 4-7, technically WSW are suppose to be for 6 inches or more of snow in Uptons area but I suppose since their forecasting 4-7 in those areas under a WSW it averages to 5.5 their rounding up to 6 which makes this as minimal a WSW as you can get in this area. In this God awful pattern though it's pretty impressive we even have this potential.

IMBY I llike the 7 over my head from the latest 12K NAM run. Looks good too me.

docstox12 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:WWA for 4-6 inches here. WSW's to the south are for 4-7, technically WSW are suppose to be for 6 inches or more of snow in Uptons area but I suppose since their forecasting 4-7 in those areas under a WSW it averages to 5.5 their rounding up to 6 which makes this as minimal a WSW as you can get in this area. In this God awful pattern though it's pretty impressive we even have this potential.

IMBY I llike the 7 over my head from the latest 12K NAM run. Looks good too me.

PERFECT, CP, that latest NAM run has that N and W jog we need! Yes, enjoy this snow while it lasts, most of it will be gone by Monday evening.We need every flake up here.WAY below normal in snow total with the dead of the winter over on Wednesday.Even if we get that 7, we will still be around 20 inches short of even a NORMAL winter up here.That's a tall order to happen in March.So far the winter is a C+ for cold and a D for snow.