Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

[billg315]

The surest sign that there will be significant snow in central and north Jersey and points north is that I will be at the shore in South Jersey this weekend for a polar plunge event.  This almost guarantees there will be a half foot of snow in my backyard this Sunday while I'm not there (and probably that it will melt before I get home), while it rains in South Jersey.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

The surest sign that there will be significant snow in central and north Jersey and points north is that I will be at the shore in South Jersey this weekend for a polar plunge event.  This almost guarantees there will be a half foot of snow in my backyard this Sunday while I'm not there (and probably that it will melt before I get home), while it rains in South Jersey.

and I will be in Mystic CT where I'm sure I will experience similar circumstances.

During the first substantial snow December 9th when we had six inches in the HV and 4.6 in NYC I was in Newport RI where they had an inch of snow washed away by the rain and onshore winds that quickly followed. It is my fate this year and I've accepted it.

[Frank_Wx]

12z GFS

[sroc4]

The surest sign that there will be significant snow in central and north Jersey and points north is that I will be at the shore in South Jersey this weekend for a polar plunge event.  This almost guarantees there will be a half foot of snow in my backyard this Sunday while I'm not there (and probably that it will melt before I get home), while it rains in South Jersey.

and I will be in Mystic CT where I'm sure I will experience similar circumstances.

During the first substantial snow December 9th when we had six inches in the HV and 4.6 in NYC I was in Newport RI where they had an inch of snow washed away by the rain and onshore winds that quickly followed. It is my fate this year and I've accepted it.

And I will be in Atlantic City with my son for a soccer tournament so like the blizzard for which I sacrificed so much you can be rest assured it will happen again.

[aiannone]

12z Euro is cold and wet. Let’s start a thread.

[jmanley32]

I'm liking what I'm hearing. Have been off for a while due to these temps and the fighting that I've seen on forum so I said let me just step away all together for s bit and now look we may have a credible decent system. Not trying be greedy but anyway this could squeak out a Godzilla or us it going to move too fast due to lack of blocking?

[amugs]

I am back and ready to roll my sleeves and get a final bang to this winter from what I have been seeing. The VPN200 gfs maps show the MJO going from phase to null/straddling 8 and then. Omes out into 1 and 2 for March which would be delicious.


One thing I have read from pro nets is that then PNA doesn't do as much for us in March as it does IN Dec and Jan for our storms. That massive block being forecasted and its position of the old backing in off the ocean is pretty remarkable. The models are still and will struggle to sort things and the patterns out.
Here is the PAC wave break that shows a wave like.up.and down motion that will help us bigly.

This graphic from Dogue Fresh awesome representation


So it has to be just cold enough for snow and those have been our best storms.

[algae888]

Get ready for some weird low pressure tracks and strange model Solutions in the coming days something that we haven't experienced in probably 7 or more years

[frank 638]

Is that good or bad for us snow lovers

[amugs]

JB saying watch March 4 to 11/12 for a BIG storm. Reminiscent of 1962 Ash wed storm but snowier!
Doc ,CP recall this one?

NAO OMG this is absolutely sick
AO goes 2 SD cold too and MJO.looks to go phase 2ish

[amugs]

MJO

[Dunnzoo]

JB saying watch March 4 to 11/12 for a BIG storm. Reminiscent of 1962 Ash wed storm but snowier!

Better not be that week! I'm flying to Spring Training on the 4th and coming home on the 11th!

[NjWeatherGuy]

Yeah bad timing for me to. I think we see a pattern change in March too but the 2nd week is bad for a lot of people. I'm scheduled to drive to FL to see parents so really hope the weather cooperates.

[Guest]

Yeah bad timing for me to. I think we see a pattern change in March too but the 2nd week is bad for a lot of people. I'm scheduled to drive to FL to see parents so really hope the weather cooperates.

You and Janet are starting to sound like Jman now with the worry about snow and travel

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

JB saying watch March 4 to 11/12 for a BIG storm. Reminiscent of 1962 Ash wed storm but snowier!
Doc ,CP recall this one?

NAO OMG this is absolutely sick
AO goes 2 SD cold too and MJO.looks to go phase 2ish

Awesome

Let's all remember before you warm freaks write off winter that 2 of the last 3 seasons March has been the snowiest month in NYC.

[NjWeatherGuy]

If you wanna see funny look at the 6z GFS around March 4th. U.S. gotta step up our game and improve this model.

[algae888]

Is that good or bad for us snow lovers

it could be good or it could be bad but if you look at the 6z gfs a hour 324 you'll see the loop-de-loop off the coast of low pressure. You will also see low pressure trying to cut into Chicago and then move Southeast to off the North Carolina coast very strange and different Evolutions  than what we're used to

[docstox12]

JB saying watch March 4 to 11/12 for a BIG storm. Reminiscent of 1962 Ash wed storm but snowier!
Doc ,CP recall this one?

NAO OMG this is absolutely sick
AO goes 2 SD cold too and MJO.looks to go phase 2ish

Oh, yes, Mugsy, I remember March of 1962 like it was yesterday.A few days beofre they were calling for a big snowstorm up here, a foot or more.Some areas in NC and VA got over 20 inches.However, the day the storm hit, there was hardly an inch.I waited all day for the storm to kick in and nothing.The best I can compare it to was a Sandy like situation.The low was situated on a long east -west axis, so there was an extremely long "fetch " of wind.The Jersey Shore in LBI was wiped out, 30 foot waves and a high tide that joined the Bay and the Ocean.It was a bust snow wise, but very windy in Fort Lee NJ.

[amugs]

DOC thanks for the memories LOL. Hope we don't have a repeat !!weenie suicide watch then.
Look at this MJO this peeps is what we need moving forward IF the models see it right.

[amugs]

Tank city holy molly!!

[amugs]

That NAO and a retraction in the PAC jet as being shown on the models Wil bring the ec storms almost to halt, slow movers, crawlers, looper etc.

[nutleyblizzard]

Tank city holy molly!!

If that GEFS NAO forecast is correct, that will almost certainly give us an opportunity for a "large scale winter event" come the first half of March. We'll see.

[amugs]

This is what I am talking about with the jet retraction and the N NAO

[amugs]

From Earthlight
igh latitude blocking retrograding in this fashion - emanating from the Barents Sea, moving toward Greenland, and then backing toward the Davis Strait and Canada, has been associated with some of our more memorable wintry periods ever.

[billg315]

As ugly as things look the next 7 days (for cold and snow at least) these are some good signs for early March. If that NAO forecast is on target, I’d say we’re looking for a good winter storm threat around 2/28 to 3/3. Since it is way too early for the coming warm spell to hold into Spring I suspect after having had a couple weeks of this we’ll be due for a cold turn by the end of the month. As many have said on here, those types of shifts in patterns are often accompanied by big storms. Combine these factors with a penchant along the east Coast by Mother Nature to give us at least one or two big snows in March to remind us it’s not quite Spring yet . . . And I’m feeling good about a beginning of March snowstorm right now - exact date TBD.

[amugs]

After we get through the list torch period 2 weej we roll up the sleeves and get ready for business for winter's return and final stand.
So let's look at our indices and just ton point out that I showed a few days ago the PAC wave break and EPO should respond? Well would you look at the GEFS saying Postive EPO to a MODERATELY Negative one now:




Now the NAO
Momma Mia does it tank in the Euro




GEFS AO

[billg315]

All signs point to some good action in early March, and it just makes sense to me not just from the data which all looks good right now, but just from experience as well. It ain’t going to stay in the 50s right into April. Things have to shift colder sometime in early March.
This warmth has had its run. Time for winter to come back and have its fun.

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