Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

by **dkodgis** Fri Mar 16, 2018 8:08 pm

I noticed the use of remarkable by Upton. And Mugs is right about the dormancy period forecasted for the sun. I don’t think we can predict what that will do but with volcanic activity, warming poles, more extreme weather patterns state-side, and global warmng, it is going to be all Jack in the box.

by petep10 Mon Mar 19, 2018 8:59 am

Too early to post a separate thread. We have to get past the mid week storm first. Winter is not done with us yet. Put those golf clubs back in the closet.

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 27 Index

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 27 Gem_asnow24_us_24

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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 27 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_24

Of course the GFS is south as usual this winter, but it will probably correct over the next few days.

by **amugs** Mon Mar 19, 2018 10:57 am

JB says EPA and HV snows into April - winter ain't over. EPO and NAO look to reload to Negative in LR.
Imagine if we had this in January through February?

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Mar 19, 2018 11:03 am

amugs wrote:JB says EPA and HV snows into April - winter ain't over. EPO and NAO look to reload to Negative in LR.
Imagine if we had this in January through February?

We have talked about that before. Right now we'd be looking it probably 3 feet of snow so far this month in New York City Instead of 3 inches and up to 5 to 6 feet in parts of the Hudson Valley and Northwest New Jersey, Instead of 3 feet. Long Island in places would probably be at 4-5 feet, Instead of 1 to 2 feet..

Let's just love what were getting now though and hope more is on the way

by **amugs** Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:02 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
amugs wrote:JB says EPA and HV snows into April - winter ain't over. EPO and NAO look to reload to Negative in LR.
Imagine if we had this in January through February?

We have talked about that before. Right now we'd be looking it probably 3 feet of snow so far this month in New York City Instead of 3 inches and up to 5 to 6 feet in parts of the Hudson Valley and Northwest New Jersey, Instead of 3 feet. Long Island in places would probably be at 4-5 feet, Instead of 1 to 2 feet..

Let's just love what were getting now though and hope more is on the way

CP and wait till next year (winter) - seriously with LOW SOLAR basically at a nill, tropical volcanic activity, La Nada to weak Nino - we should have good blocking and a fetch of moisture that has the possibility of heads spinning!

Yes we take we get and embrace it.

by **amugs** Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:46 pm

Wednesday seems to be a theme here??
Cp DOC - lets come up with a name - Wonderful Wednesday?

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 27 5aafe8009cd50

by **amugs** Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:49 pm

HOLY SHT if this comes to fruition we may be looking at 1982???

by **amugs** Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:52 pm

amugs wrote:HOLY SHT if this comes to fruition we may be looking at 1982???

YIKES!!!!!!!!!

From Tor Jay Pro Met - triple play here!!

by **amugs** Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:53 pm

Close up - WTH????????

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 27 5aafea2eb3089

by **amugs** Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:59 pm

WHY?? LOW SOLAR finally kicking in here!

2018 total: 41 days (53%) out of 79 days so far with much more to ocme
2017 total: 104 days (28%)

by **billg315** Mon Mar 19, 2018 1:05 pm

Mugs, I’ve been following the solar minimum (probably not as closely or with as much expertise as you) for awhile and expecting it to pay dividends soon if it’s a valid impact on our weather. If we assume it is finally having an impact, would we be able to confirm that with a below normal temperature summer? And if so does it have to be global to validly link it to solar activity?

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 19, 2018 1:45 pm

Our winter pattern will go through April 15th.

MOG

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Mar 19, 2018 1:46 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Our winter pattern will go through April 15th.

Yesssssssssssssssss!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by **weatherwatchermom** Mon Mar 19, 2018 4:33 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Our winter pattern will go through April 15th.

by **frank 638** Mon Mar 19, 2018 6:55 pm

Dick Gregory was saying earlier we will probably have another storm for this Saturday night into Sunday morning and possibly another storm on Tuesday. Bring on the snow because us snow weenies deserve this after having a horrible February all aboard lol

by **jimv45** Mon Mar 19, 2018 6:58 pm

Is Dick the brother of Nick?

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Mar 19, 2018 7:08 pm

Jim I believe they had at least one different parent. I can’t swear to it though.

by **frank 638** Mon Mar 19, 2018 7:13 pm

jimv45 wrote:Is Dick the brother of Nick?

LMAO I guess I got carried away I meant Nick Gregory I don't know where a Dick Gregory came from LOL

by **jimv45** Mon Mar 19, 2018 7:16 pm

Boy that's good to know Cp, I was getting worried.

by **jmanley32** Wed Mar 21, 2018 7:24 pm

Good lord that storm around 28th looks crazy, but sorry no more for me. I cannot take anymore of this. I am losing days off my vacation already had cancel my trip for the 30th as due to todays non-event (not saying tonight wont produce) I now have to work next friday. If it closes schools on the 28th I will have to cancel plans again the following Monday as I would lose that day too. School could have been a full day today. What a waste.

by **rb924119** Thu Mar 22, 2018 4:36 am

Just for fits and shiggles (see what I did there? lmao we are a "G-rated" forum Very Happy

), the EURO Op was setting up for a HECS again......just in time for April Fools and Easter lmao BRING. IT. ON. And for those of you wondering; NO, I HAVEN'T ACTUALLY DONE ANY ANALYSIS ON IT YET. I ONLY GLANCED AT THE OPERATIONALS ahahaha BUT IT DOESN'T MEAN IT ISN'T FUN AS HECK TO LOOK AND GAWK AT AHAHAHAHAHA WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!! What a great event this one turned out to be, for a plethora of reasons. I got skunked here in Fishkill, 2.5" storm total, but you know what? I don't care. There was so much else to absolutely LOVE about this storm that I'm not even mad. Not one bit. I was, but not any longer. I had so much fun tracking this thing with you all, even if things did a get a little testy or short at times (though I never once ended up "yelling"......Soul ;p) Anyway, what a wonderful even with our NJ Strong family, and we might, just might, get to do it one last time. More to come (at some point) aha Enjoy your snow, everybody!!!!!

by **weatherwatchermom** Thu Mar 22, 2018 6:25 am

rb924119 wrote:Just for fits and shiggles (see what I did there? lmao we are a "G-rated" forum ), the EURO Op was setting up for a HECS again......just in time for April Fools and Easter lmao BRING. IT. ON. And for those of you wondering; NO, I HAVEN'T ACTUALLY DONE ANY ANALYSIS ON IT YET. I ONLY GLANCED AT THE OPERATIONALS ahahaha BUT IT DOESN'T MEAN IT ISN'T FUN AS HECK TO LOOK AND GAWK AT AHAHAHAHAHA WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!! What a great event this one turned out to be, for a plethora of reasons. I got skunked here in Fishkill, 2.5" storm total, but you know what? I don't care. There was so much else to absolutely LOVE about this storm that I'm not even mad. Not one bit. I was, but not any longer. I had so much fun tracking this thing with you all, even if things did a get a little testy or short at times (though I never once ended up "yelling"......Soul ;p) Anyway, what a wonderful even with our NJ Strong family, and we might, just might, get to do it one last time. More to come (at some point) aha Enjoy your snow, everybody!!!!!

Thank your for your great insight as always!! But are you serious??? affraid

by **billg315** Thu Mar 22, 2018 8:11 am

If there is another storm left in this pattern around April 1st, please, PLEASE make it a little more straightforward than this one was. I want all models in agreement, a large stable swath of snow with minimal gradients and I want it to start at midnight with a surface temp of 26*. I’m not sure I can mentally or emotionally handle another one like this last one, right now. I’m exhausted. Lol.

by **docstox12** Thu Mar 22, 2018 8:32 am

billg315 wrote:If there is another storm left in this pattern around April 1st, please, PLEASE make it a little more straightforward than this one was. I want all models in agreement, a large stable swath of snow with minimal gradients and I want it to start at midnight with a surface temp of 26*. I’m not sure I can mentally or emotionally handle another one like this last one, right now. I’m exhausted. Lol.

LOL, then you are ordering up a Miller A.These Miller B's are always crapshoote, you never know how they are going to bomb out and where.

by **Grselig** Thu Mar 22, 2018 8:33 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Just for fits and shiggles (see what I did there? lmao we are a "G-rated" forum ), the EURO Op was setting up for a HECS again......just in time for April Fools and Easter lmao BRING. IT. ON. And for those of you wondering; NO, I HAVEN'T ACTUALLY DONE ANY ANALYSIS ON IT YET. I ONLY GLANCED AT THE OPERATIONALS ahahaha BUT IT DOESN'T MEAN IT ISN'T FUN AS HECK TO LOOK AND GAWK AT AHAHAHAHAHA WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!! What a great event this one turned out to be, for a plethora of reasons. I got skunked here in Fishkill, 2.5" storm total, but you know what? I don't care. There was so much else to absolutely LOVE about this storm that I'm not even mad. Not one bit. I was, but not any longer. I had so much fun tracking this thing with you all, even if things did a get a little testy or short at times (though I never once ended up "yelling"......Soul ;p) Anyway, what a wonderful even with our NJ Strong family, and we might, just might, get to do it one last time. More to come (at some point) aha Enjoy your snow, everybody!!!!!

Thank your for your great insight as always!! But are you serious???

Thanks for your analysis. Its always fun to see the monster maps for two feet. Then get the heartbreak of possibility of complete bust. The potential triple phasing. The confluence of the north. 6.5 here and for this time of year, it is very nice. I'll make toast to April 1st. Just would love to see another opportunity to track!!!!!

by **weatherwatchermom** Thu Mar 22, 2018 8:52 am

hey just read an article on our local patch and saw that Accuweather is suppressing the next threat to the south..with no chance of hitting us...

by **sroc4** Thu Mar 22, 2018 9:12 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:hey just read an article on our local patch and saw that Accuweather is suppressing the next threat to the south..with no chance of hitting us...

Right where we want it at this time: told ya

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