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MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

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Post by rb924119 Tue Feb 27, 2018 8:40 pm

WeatherBob wrote:Thanks RB. It’s funny, in my day, 81 to 85, there was just one operational model, that’s it.  It was the LFM (Limited Fine Mesh) .  It only forecasted out to 48 hrs and had 60 Nautical Mile Grid Points.  Talk about winter forecast challenges!

Were you in the Weather Service, or a private entity? If you don't mind me asking lol and I actually have heard of that model!! Though, admittedly, I don't know much about it haha and yeah, you really had to know your stuff to forecast without the help we have now. I couldn't imagine what that was like, and probably couldn't do it, to be honest.

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Post by billg315 Tue Feb 27, 2018 8:46 pm

We are probably getting a bit off topic, (but we're in a brief model lull, so maybe not a bad thing) but I have to say I am always impressed by the challenges meteorologists faced 30-40 years ago (and more) with limited modeling, less data, and even less real-time info. What a difficult job to be able to look at a map, a satellite, some raw data, and not much more and figure out what was going to happen. Of course today the new challenge may be too MUCH modeling and data, i.e., what do you trust and what do your throw out. lol.

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Post by WeatherBob Tue Feb 27, 2018 8:51 pm

I interned for a summer at the NWS in Rockefeller Center, did the hourly taped weather round ups and daily forecasts ( I just read them, didn’t make them ) that were broadcasted on weather radio KWO35. After I graduated got a job at a private weather company at Teterboro Airport. Did weather forecasting and computerized flight planning for corporate aircraft. Did that for a year and then left Meteorology and went into the corporate world. Never lost my love for Meteorology!
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Post by rb924119 Tue Feb 27, 2018 8:55 pm

WeatherBob wrote:I interned for a summer at the NWS in Rockefeller Center, did the hourly taped weather round ups and daily forecasts ( I just read them,  didn’t make them ) that were broadcasted on weather radio KWO35. After I graduated got a job at a private weather company at Teterboro Airport.  Did weather forecasting and computerized flight planning for corporate aircraft.  Did that for a year and then left Meteorology and went into the corporate world.  Never lost my love for Meteorology!

Oh wow!! It wasn't for National Weather Station at the Teterboro Airport, was it? Lmao

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Post by rb924119 Tue Feb 27, 2018 8:57 pm

My friend just sent me this, and I'm dead. Literally dead.

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 7 Img_1421

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Post by billg315 Tue Feb 27, 2018 8:58 pm

rb924119 wrote:My friend just sent me this, and I'm dead. Literally dead.

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 7 Img_1421
Lol
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Post by rb924119 Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:00 pm

SREFS are uber-warm. That unsettles me for the NAM run, I won't lie.

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Post by WeatherBob Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:02 pm

RB - it was called the National Weather Corporation, it was private, no relation to the NWS
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Post by rb924119 Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:06 pm

WeatherBob wrote:RB - it was called the National Weather Corporation,  it was private, no relation to the NWS

Yeah, no, I know, but I think it's the same place that is there now haha

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Post by WeatherBob Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:10 pm

Does anyone know if the NAM initialized well?
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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:10 pm

rb924119 wrote:My friend just sent me this, and I'm dead. Literally dead.

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 7 Img_1421

Ahahahaha, Yellowstone! shout
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Post by billg315 Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:12 pm

WeatherBob wrote:Does anyone know if the NAM initialized well?
I’m looking at it now but I usually seem to get it slower than others here so I’m not really at a critical point yet.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:14 pm

rb924119 wrote:SREFS are uber-warm. That unsettles me for the NAM run, I won't lie.

[x] dislike
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Post by WeatherBob Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:17 pm

Does that 700 mb at 33 hrs look strange?
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Post by rb924119 Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:20 pm

HUGE CHANGES AT THE SURFACE ON THE NAM FOR THE BETTER!!! PRIMARY IS 7mb WEAKER!!!! AND FURTHER SOUTHEAST!!!

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Post by rb924119 Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:22 pm

LATER H5 INTERACTION LOOKS LIKELY HERE WHICH MEANS WE GET A WEAKER PRIMARY AND LESS WRAPPED UP....LESS WARM ADVECTION OUT AHEAD. TBIS COULD BE BIG FOLKS.

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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:23 pm

Less interaction between N and S energy so far compared to 18

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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Post by billg315 Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:24 pm

At 12z Thur primary seems further south than earlier runs and almost looks like secondary is trying to form already (maybe?)
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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:24 pm

Could be huge.

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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:26 pm

18 vs 0z HUGE difference

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 7 Namconus_z500_vort_us_41
MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 7 Namconus_z500_vort_us_39

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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Post by aiannone Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:31 pm

WeatherBob wrote:I interned for a summer at the NWS in Rockefeller Center, did the hourly taped weather round ups and daily forecasts ( I just read them,  didn’t make them ) that were broadcasted on weather radio KWO35. After I graduated got a job at a private weather company at Teterboro Airport.  Did weather forecasting and computerized flight planning for corporate aircraft.  Did that for a year and then left Meteorology and went into the corporate world.  Never lost my love for Meteorology!

Ditto! Currently studying for my CPA exam lol. Love meteorology my whole life, went to school for a year and a half for a meteorology degree until I also decided to jump into the corporate world. But as you said, I have not lost my love for meteorology. Im currently studying the audit of accounts receivables while watching the NAM come in lol

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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:32 pm

Ruh Roh Shocked

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Post by amugs Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:39 pm

HR 57 just obliterate's NNJ EPA and LHV and MHV

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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:39 pm

850 and 700 closed low a tad too N for my liking, although looks like its about to get interesting

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:39 pm

nam is more north and soi far all rain.....
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Post by amugs Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:40 pm

HR 60 and 63 moderate snow

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:41 pm

wow all the winds are up into vt now. it takes a turn to the N into RI, wth?


Last edited by jmanley32 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:42 pm; edited 1 time in total
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