Re: March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:30 am

emokid51783 wrote:For the record, emokid map does not buy 18 inches in Jersey City....as much as Id like to dream

I will put your snow map in the maps thread. Thanks for posting Smile

syosnow94 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:hi-res RGEM

I wanna scream. How can the hi-res RGEM show 24” IMBY and other models 3” within 15 hours of the event. These models are actually pointless and make the entire field of meteorology a laughing stock.

See my new post above.

by **jake732** Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:30 am

my biggest concern is based on HRDPS for the coast if the temps stay 2 degrees cooler then big time snow as well...but 2 degrees on the gfs or nam doesnt do squat.

by **nutleyblizzard** Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:31 am

Frank_Wx wrote:hi-res RGEM

Wow thats impressive! If UKIE and EURO hold their ground, I believe we can discount the GFS and 12k NAM.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:31 am

rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:hi-res RGEM

I'm leery of the NYC and metro jackpot. You might get it in precip, but I don't think in snow.

It also will not be a 10:1 ratio.

I am still trying to figure out what to think lol!

by **jake732** Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:32 am

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:35 am

The 12z UKMET looks fantastic.

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 11 Mar6_12zUkie500.gif.9dc9b814e9bc73562ddbe1cbaea76c0e

by **dsix85** Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:37 am

Hey Emo, you think eastern LI has a shot to get 6+?

by **billg315** Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:40 am

lglickman wrote:Can someone educate me please - How does one approach these various models and which ones are likely keying in on the right features of a complex system. In other words, how do you have a sense of whether the GFS is more correct than something like the RGEM, or Euro, etc... Seems like there is a good amount of support for higher snow totals closer to the coast, but then again the GFS and more recent NAM runs suggest maybe a further west solution.

There's a couple of answers to this (actually maybe more than a couple) and you may get varying opinions from various people.

1.) If you look at the overall dynamics of a system and the larger scale weather pattern (what are the 850 level temps, where is the H5 low, where is the jet streak in comparison to the trough, what is the trough tilt, where and how high is the ridging, where is the block, etc, etc,) and it doesn't match up with what the models are showing at the surface, or one model is way off base from the others, that may be a clue that you shouldn't take that model verbatim. You also have to consider very localized factors that the models may sometimes miss but that you know exist (look at last week's storm, the failure of the snow to stick in many areas was something the models weren't going to pick up on that well. You really needed to know what the surface conditions were leading up to the storm in various places and where the heaviest precip intensity would be). Which brings me to point two;

2.) Sometimes, you just have to have a gut feel based on your experience. If you follow weather for 5, 10, 15 or more years, especially in one place, you start to learn a lot about how storms typically behave in that region and what localized dynamics are at play. That then informs your opinion of what is more likely to happen, based on previous similar situations, based on your local geography, climatology etc. Sometimes your gut will be wrong, but sometimes you just need to trust it because its based on your observational experience. This gets to sroc's point the other day about how people who know an area very well can often offer weather analysis for that particular area that is superior to what they know about another region.

If you combine your gut/experience with a good look at all the data, you can sometimes sniff out what models are right and what ones are off the mark. But this is, ultimately an inexact science, so sometimes you just have to wait and see how it actually unfolds, as it happens. You can't always get it right in advance.

by **billg315** Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:41 am

And after posting all that I see Frank already answered. lol

One other point, when all else fails trust Frank. He knows his stuff! Very Happy

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:44 am

I have zero concern. It's coming.

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 11 D0a84e10

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 11 Daef9410

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 11 8faedd10

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:44 am

Frank_Wx wrote:The 12z UKMET looks fantastic.

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 11 GZ_D5_PN_036_0000

by **Sanchize06** Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:45 am

HRRR for 4am. Colder than other model I've seen for that timeframe

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 11 Hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_18

by **rb924119** Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:47 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:hi-res RGEM

I'm leery of the NYC and metro jackpot. You might get it in precip, but I don't think in snow.

It also will not be a 10:1 ratio.

I am still trying to figure out what to think

Yeah, it definitely isn't easy ahha I think, though, the main low will be the one on the western flank - think of where your BEST pressure falls are going to be relative to your synoptic evolution. I also believe the eastern one is convective feedback (which can you blame the models?? Lol that convection is sick!!!!) secondly, when you're on the edge of that warm boundary and the vertical motion is so steep, I think you're going to be releasing so much latent heat from condensation that you end up with "sneet" (my word, just for sake of future arguments over ownership/first use lmfao), whereby it will be snowing and cold enough to snow, but there will be so much condensation going on from the steep and stupidly intense vertical motion that the vapor will condense on the snowflakes, and not only heavily rime them, but also during their overall size. So instead of having dendrites, you end up with something like sugar that takes a lot longer to stack up. By he same token, as that vertical motion becomes more slantwise further west, because you still have these same stupidly intense vertical velocities through the DGZ, THATS where the biggest totals will be. Because there isn't as much condensation going on; the precip is just being lofted further and then displaced, which keeps it out of the column-deep condensation processes. I've seen this before in these types of systems, which is why I'm so hesitant, and why I think north and west of I-95 jackpots bigtime. I definitely think this will be a thundersnow producer, though, and you have CSI and a crazy EPV gradient in the vertical superimposed nicely with your mid-level dry tongue. Most likely areas for this are northern half of NJ, LHV and back into EPA/east-central NY.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:48 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:The 12z UKMET looks fantastic.

by emokid51783 Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:48 am

dsix85 wrote:Hey Emo, you think eastern LI has a shot to get 6+?

Unlikely, but as always a 30m jog east, which is always possible in nowcasting mode, puts it into play

by **dsix85** Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:49 am

Thanks Emo.. The board really appreciates you and the other experts input on these ever changing tracks.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:49 am

rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:hi-res RGEM

I'm leery of the NYC and metro jackpot. You might get it in precip, but I don't think in snow.

It also will not be a 10:1 ratio.

I am still trying to figure out what to think

Yeah, it definitely isn't easy ahha I think, though, the main low will be the one on the western flank - think of where your BEST pressure falls are going to be relative to your synoptic evolution. I also believe the eastern one is convective feedback (which can you blame the models?? Lol that convection is sick!!!!) secondly, when you're on the edge of that warm boundary and the vertical motion is so steep, I think you're going to be releasing so much latent heat from condensation that you end up with "sneet" (my word, just for sake of future arguments over ownership/first use lmfao), whereby it will be snowing and cold enough to snow, but there will be so much condensation going on from the steep and stupidly intense vertical motion that the vapor will condense on the snowflakes, and not only heavily rime them, but also during their overall size. So instead of having dendrites, you end up with something like sugar that takes a lot longer to stack up. By he same token, as that vertical motion becomes more slantwise further west, because you still have these same stupidly intense vertical velocities through the DGZ, THATS where the biggest totals will be. Because there isn't as much condensation going on; the precip is just being lofted further and then displaced, which keeps it out of the column-deep condensation processes. I've seen this before in these types of systems, which is why I'm so hesitant, and why I think north and west of I-95 jackpots bigtime. I definitely think this will be a thundersnow producer, though, and you have CSI and a crazy EPV gradient in the vertical superimposed nicely with your mid-level dry tongue. Most likely areas for this are northern half of NJ, LHV and back into EPA/east-central NY.

Agree...

by **amugs** Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:51 am

UKIE!!!!!!!
FOR 10G ALEX?

by **jimv45** Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:52 am

sound good Rb, but hope everyone can get decent snows even though that's hard to do lately.

by **sroc4** Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:52 am

With the last storm the GFS was the warmest solution, and the solution verified much colder than expected. However the coldest solution which was the NAM also was overdone which corrected warmer overall in the final solution. I expect the same thing today a blend of the warmest and coldest solutions is likely the correct one. Again a blend of the tracks and temp profiles are likely correct; not one model verbatim. Right now I think my map is a decent blend. Assuming euro holds as one of the coldest and furthest east. The fact that there is such a large disparity in totals along the coast 2-20” should tell you that “models are just for guidance” and not forecasting. In a margins air mass that where very tiny shifts to track and banding will have these profound effects on totals. It’s unavoidable. Again it’s a nowcast time. Plain and simple.

by **amugs** Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:59 am

by **mikeypizano** Tue Mar 06, 2018 12:14 pm

That UKIE... M-A-D-O-N-N-E!!!

Wait, Mugs, is that precip map UKIE or CMC?

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Mar 06, 2018 12:18 pm

I expect this storm to overperform. Get ready for a big Euro crushjob run and then can we PLEASE tell the GFS to GTFO of here? shout

by **Grselig** Tue Mar 06, 2018 12:21 pm

mikeypizano wrote:That UKIE... M-A-D-O-N-N-E!!!

Wait, Mugs, is that precip map UKIE or CMC?

Mikey, you can't MADONNE something if you don't know what it is!!!!!!!!! Very Happy

by **mikeypizano** Tue Mar 06, 2018 12:23 pm

Grselig wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:That UKIE... M-A-D-O-N-N-E!!!

Wait, Mugs, is that precip map UKIE or CMC?

Mikey, you can't MADONNE something if you don't know what it is!!!!!!!!!

/me looks at pretty colors

MAAADDDOOOONE!!!!

by **WeatherBob** Tue Mar 06, 2018 12:23 pm

Regardless of the actual precip type at the major 3 airports, the turbulence is going to be wicked for planes trying to land or take off. There’s got to be major cancellations by mid day for all the airports in the ny metro area. Does the gang concur?

by **sroc4** Tue Mar 06, 2018 12:24 pm

mikeypizano wrote:That UKIE... M-A-D-O-N-N-E!!!

Wait, Mugs, is that precip map UKIE or CMC?

Lol CMc. The question is did he mean to post the cmc or ukie?

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