Re: March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

by **billg315** Tue Mar 06, 2018 10:48 am

12z GFS continues to be bad for coastal snow lovers. Surface Low is actually on the NJ shore. Upper level low is right over South Jersey. Temps are warm and rain makes it into NYC and most of Central NJ (of course SJ is all wet). If this GFS run verified the only people getting significant snow are northwest NJ, NEPA, and the Hudson Valley north of NYC.
I continue to think this is overdone (the GFS west track and rain) -- but not completely off the mark. (Remember the GFS last week was an all rain event -- and most people went over to snow -- so it has been wrong recently). It still would make me hesitant to go with very high snow totals anywhere east of the NJ Turnpike. Even if the GFS is CLOSE, mixing in the middle of the storm will cut down on (not elimiante, but cut down on) totals.

by **Taffy** Tue Mar 06, 2018 10:50 am

Really nice maps everyone. Thanks for all you do.

by lglickman Tue Mar 06, 2018 10:52 am

are the snow amounts lower on the NWS for NYC metro because of mixing issues or because ratios will be lower compared to upper westchester and the HV?

by **sroc4** Tue Mar 06, 2018 10:52 am

lglickman wrote:are the snow amounts lower on the NWS for NYC metro because of mixing issues or because ratios will be lower compared to upper westchester and the HV?

Likely Both

by **nutleyblizzard** Tue Mar 06, 2018 10:53 am

So after looking at the 12z suite thus far, NYC is going to see anywhere from 0-12+ inches of snow. Models are hopelessly lost.

by DAYBLAZER Tue Mar 06, 2018 10:53 am

Well I guess I'm screwed no matter what. Every single map posted here has had me at 10+ minimum and dead center in the highest accumulation areas. I know me complaining about this may rub some of you snow lovers the wrong way but after being out of power since Friday night things are quite dire for me here in Hopatcong.

I'll make a deal with one of you-- I'll trade you all the snow I'm supposed to get if you can get my power back on in the next 48 hours. Also send beer.

by **rb924119** Tue Mar 06, 2018 10:55 am

DAYBLAZER wrote:Well I guess I'm screwed no matter what. Every single map posted here has had me at 10+ minimum and dead center in the highest accumulation areas. I know me complaining about this may rub some of you snow lovers the wrong way but after being out of power since Friday night things are quite dire for me here in Hopatcong.

I'll make a deal with one of you-- I'll trade you all the snow I'm supposed to get if you can get my power back on in the next 48 hours. Also send beer.

You aren't alone, my friend. My parents are in the exact same boat. I told them that if they don't get it back by this afternoon, don't expect it back on for another several days with this storm, and then if not by the end of the weekend, for the long haul because of the third system. I'm forwarding this to you lol

by **billg315** Tue Mar 06, 2018 10:56 am

DAYBLAZER wrote:Well I guess I'm screwed no matter what. Every single map posted here has had me at 10+ minimum and dead center in the highest accumulation areas. I know me complaining about this may rub some of you snow lovers the wrong way but after being out of power since Friday night things are quite dire for me here in Hopatcong.

I'll make a deal with one of you-- I'll trade you all the snow I'm supposed to get if you can get my power back on in the next 48 hours. Also send beer.

I hear you. Being without power that long is awful. But being without power that long and then into a snowstorm -- even worse. I hope your power gets on soon, before tomorrow. Unfortunately I do think no matter where this storm tracks you will get a lot of snow.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Mar 06, 2018 10:58 am

billg315 wrote:12z GFS continues to be bad for coastal snow lovers. Surface Low is actually on the NJ shore. Upper level low is right over South Jersey. Temps are warm and rain makes it into NYC and most of Central NJ (of course SJ is all wet). If this GFS run verified the only people getting significant snow are northwest NJ, NEPA, and the Hudson Valley north of NYC.
I continue to think this is overdone (the GFS west track and rain) -- but not completely off the mark. (Remember the GFS last week was an all rain event -- and most people went over to snow -- so it has been wrong recently). It still would make me hesitant to go with very high snow totals anywhere east of the NJ Turnpike. Even if the GFS is CLOSE, mixing in the middle of the storm will cut down on (not elimiante, but cut down on) totals.

Last week was an interesting storm and in my opinion there are 2 ways to look at it. Most places along the coast saw little in the way of snow accumulation. The GFS accurately depicted that. However, when the precipitation was coming down at a good clip it was falling in the form of snow. It was trying to stick but every time precip became light it flipped back to rain. It was a classic rain/snow mix storm for the coast. That said, models that had snow accumulation on the coast such as the hi-res were banking on heavy precip rates. It did not work out for them. And when you have tropical storm force winds it further effects snow growth.

That leads me to this storm. The dynamics with this storm compared to last week are not even close. Not only is the air mass colder heading into this storm, but the upper level dynamics from 250mb jet location and H7 VV's are much more impressive. Yes we have March sun angle to worry about, but dynamics can overcome surface temps. As long as the precip falls at a heavy clip, unlike last storm, it could stay in the form of snow since 850mb temps appear to be plenty cold unless you are looking at the GFS.

Therefore, I conclude by saying the GFS was good last storm but perhaps by stroke of luck because better dynamics, which the GFS does a poor job of handling, would have overcome the warmer surface temps. Also, winds will not be as bad with this system.

While NYC and points S&E are unlikely to see a Godzilla, I also do not think they will see 2 inches as GFS depicts. I will have an updated snow map this afternoon.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Mar 06, 2018 10:59 am

12z CMC obliterates the area

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 10 5a9eb920b73cb

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 10 5a9eb914b1069

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:00 am

Impressive CCB on the CMC

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 10 DFEAEDB3-08A2-455C-B382-EB52B7FF6AE9.png.b2601bbfb1d06d157ea78202241964e7

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 10 DFEAEDB3-08A2-455C-B382-EB52B7FF6AE9.png.b2601bbfb1d06d157ea78202241964e7

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 10 Giphy

by DAYBLAZER Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:00 am

Thanks for the advice and sympathy guys. I have a generator that I plan on tucking under my deck to hopefully keep it running during the storm. I know they technically aren't supposed to get wet but I'm hoping by keeping it under my deck I can avoid shorting it out and at least keep the lights on and space heaters cranking. Oh and of course check in with you guys!

As of this morning the downed poles in my area haven't seen any improvement. Haven't even seen ONE JCPL truck yet. Oh well...more Quick Check subs for me tonight I guess .

Back to the storm-- NWS has snow starting for me at 7PM tonight. This seems too early. Any speculation on if this will verify????

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:00 am

by **SNOW MAN** Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:01 am

Can someone give me an idea of what the winds are going to be like with this storm and what kind of snowfall totals we're expecting ? I'm sorry for asking, but I still have no power or cell phone service at my home so I'm at the local Ford dealer again using their wifi. I'm just trying to catch up on what this storm is going bring us in EPA. Thanks I really appreciate the help.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:03 am

I am also seeing that models are having difficult on which low to key in on. By this point, you notice on most models there are 2 surface lows. The one closest to the coast and another a little further. The RGEM and other models believe the low furthest from the coast will be the main show, which means the CCB is over our area.

Here is the GEM-LAM

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:06 am

SNOW MAN wrote:Can someone give me an idea of what the winds are going to be like with this storm and what kind of snowfall totals we're expecting ? I'm sorry for asking, but I still have no power or cell phone service at my home so I'm at the local Ford dealer again using their wifi. I'm just trying to catch up on what this storm is going bring us in EPA. Thanks I really appreciate the help.

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 10 Gfs_mslp_wind_neus_6

by **billg315** Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:07 am

SNOW MAN wrote:Can someone give me an idea of what the winds are going to be like with this storm and what kind of snowfall totals we're expecting ? I'm sorry for asking, but I still have no power or cell phone service at my home so I'm at the local Ford dealer again using their wifi. I'm just trying to catch up on what this storm is going bring us in EPA. Thanks I really appreciate the help.

As Frank said, I think the winds are not nearly as strong with this as last Friday. But with any coastal storm they will be gusty (say 30-40 mph gusts possible). The problem is there will be more heavy wet snow on branches and powerlines so you won't need as much wind to cause outages.

by **SNOW MAN** Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:10 am

Thank you Frank. I'm sorry for the double post I don't know how that happened. I'm hoping that I get my power on today , but I don't think things are going as quickly as the power companies hoped. Thanks again.

by lglickman Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:19 am

Can someone educate me please - How does one approach these various models and which ones are likely keying in on the right features of a complex system. In other words, how do you have a sense of whether the GFS is more correct than something like the RGEM, or Euro, etc... Seems like there is a good amount of support for higher snow totals closer to the coast, but then again the GFS and more recent NAM runs suggest maybe a further west solution.

by **SNOW MAN** Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:24 am

Thanks billg315. I already lost 3 nice juniper trees around my deck from the weight of the snow plus the wind. Luckily they just came loose from the ground, but didn't snap, so I'm hoping that after things calm down and the snow melts that I can get them upright and secure them to my deck so they can re-root and save them. By the way the forecasters on this board were exactly right about the last storm. Kudos to all of you. I received 14 inches of snow from the last storm. I had snow flakes the size of half dollars . It snowed so hard I couldn't even see across my yard. AMAZING !

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:25 am

hi-res RGEM

by emokid51783 Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:27 am

For the record, emokid map does not buy 18 inches in Jersey City....as much as Id like to dream Smile

by Guest Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:28 am

Frank_Wx wrote:hi-res RGEM

I wanna scream. How can the hi-res RGEM show 24” IMBY and other models 3” within 15 hours of the event. These models are actually pointless and make the entire field of meteorology a laughing stock.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:29 am

lglickman wrote:Can someone educate me please - How does one approach these various models and which ones are likely keying in on the right features of a complex system. In other words, how do you have a sense of whether the GFS is more correct than something like the RGEM, or Euro, etc... Seems like there is a good amount of support for higher snow totals closer to the coast, but then again the GFS and more recent NAM runs suggest maybe a further west solution.

Truth of the matter is no one knows. This is where experience, history (analogs) and a true understanding of physics (Meteorology) come into play. You need to look at this from a broader scale and analyze the setting. We're in March where sun angle is higher. Historically, a west-based -NAO in March produces coastal systems inside the 40/70 BM. A track along the coast as GFS shows is feasible. But even if it is, there is cold air and other upper air dynamics at play that could keep precip in the form of snow. Maybe not for the immediate coast like Jersey Shore and SNJ, but definitely for places just inland like NYC, Newark, etc.

00z runs have extra recon in them tonight. Maybe we will have a better idea by then.

by **rb924119** Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:29 am

Frank_Wx wrote:hi-res RGEM

I'm leery of the NYC and metro jackpot. You might get it in precip, but I don't think in snow.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:30 am

emokid51783 wrote:For the record, emokid map does not buy 18 inches in Jersey City....as much as Id like to dream

I will put your snow map in the maps thread. Thanks for posting Smile

syosnow94 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:hi-res RGEM

I wanna scream. How can the hi-res RGEM show 24” IMBY and other models 3” within 15 hours of the event. These models are actually pointless and make the entire field of meteorology a laughing stock.

See my new post above.

by **jake732** Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:30 am

my biggest concern is based on HRDPS for the coast if the temps stay 2 degrees cooler then big time snow as well...but 2 degrees on the gfs or nam doesnt do squat.

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