March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

Jeeze haven't even been look winds I can see advisories or even blizzard warnings going up if 3km verifies. 45 to 50 mph gusts in southern Westchester 50 to 60 on Long island and queens.

Winter Storm Warning

(Lower Hudson Valley, Southern NY State, Northeast NJ)

WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
4 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 16
inches with localized amounts up to 18 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New
York.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 4 AM EST Thursday. The heaviest
snow is expected in the afternoon when snowfall rates of 1 to 2
inches per hour are possible

WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 16
inches with localized amounts up to 18 inches are expected.

SoulSingMG wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Wow 3km and rgem give us around 18 to 20 soul!! Even euro is good. Thinking we go b on higher end and maybe over 12. The weight of even 3 to 6 is go cause major power issues. Especially furs.

Watch meso models tonight. We're gonna be in for it, I FEEL it Jman.

I'll b happy with a foot but of course want way more. Look what posted after u bout einds. Go b nasty possibly.

Vinnydula wrote:WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 16
 inches with localized amounts up to 18 inches are expected.

where what? Is that new warning?

Here is Dobbs

It looks like mainly rain for NYC/LI, Jersey Shore. Maybe some front/back end snow for these regions but I am not too thrilled about this system. As for Doc and CP, enjoy the big snow!

Big jump east 18z gfs

New already issued advisory for eastern long islsnd.

Frank_Wx wrote:Big jump east 18z gfs

Gfs gives NYC maybe few slushy inches and heavy rain wind. Sounds like Fri.

SoulSingMG wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Big jump east 18z gfs

forget it soul we see 2 inches.

Mt Holly

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
340 PM EST Tue Mar 6 2018

...A dangerous wet snow storm will have high impact and potential
for numerous new power outages and some tree damage from eastern
Pennsylvania into northern New Jersey...

.A compact but powerful nor`easter will skirt the New Jersey
coast on Wednesday, producing periods of heavy precipitation. All
locations along and west of the Interstate 95 corridor are
vulnerable to heavy snow, with the greatest uncertainty within 20
miles either side of Interstate 95. Otherwise, there is very high
confidence that this storm will make travel difficult or nearly
impossible at times, across much of eastern Pennsylvania and
northern New Jersey, basically from near Philadelphia, west and
north to the New York state border and beyond. Highest snow
accumulations will be in the hilly areas. Unnecessary travel is
not recommended Wednesday. Thereafter, communities will need
Wednesday night and Thursday morning to dig out. Caution is
advised for those with heart problems as over exertion removing
wet snow could prompt a heart attack.

but i think the point is that the western most solution (GFS) is now shifting back east which may bode well for the actual track of the storm being in the east camp

Vinnydula wrote:Here is Dobbs

nws calling for 7 to 12 with locally 14 plus. I dunno where u see 18 unless on 3km or rgem which are more like 22.

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Big jump east 18z gfs

forget it soul we see 2 inches.

It's more about the shift back east, showing the "MAIN LP" AINT going into NY HARBOR

RJB8525 wrote:Mt Holly

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
340 PM EST Tue Mar 6 2018

...A dangerous wet snow storm will have high impact and potential
for numerous new power outages and some tree damage from eastern
Pennsylvania into northern New Jersey...

.A compact but powerful nor`easter will skirt the New Jersey
coast on Wednesday, producing periods of heavy precipitation. All
locations along and west of the Interstate 95 corridor are
vulnerable to heavy snow, with the greatest uncertainty within 20
miles either side of Interstate 95. Otherwise, there is very high
confidence that this storm will make travel difficult or nearly
impossible at times, across much of eastern Pennsylvania and
northern New Jersey, basically from near Philadelphia, west and
north to the New York state border and beyond. Highest snow
accumulations will be in the hilly areas. Unnecessary travel is
not recommended Wednesday. Thereafter, communities will need
Wednesday night and Thursday morning to dig out. Caution is
advised for those with heart problems as over exertion removing
wet snow could prompt a heart attack.

why is this not b stressed by Upton we had the same winds Fri and go have wet snow too.

Lee just said he thinks the low is gonna be east.

lglickman1 wrote:but i think the point is that the western most solution (GFS) is now shifting back east which may bode well for the actual track of the storm being in the east camp

Yes

SoulSingMG wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Big jump east 18z gfs

forget it soul we see 2 inches.

It's more about the shift back east, showing the "MAIN LP" AINT going into NY HARBOR

true at least wasn't west. I can't life of me figure out why nws Upton not saying this is dangerous like Mt Holly. BTW coastal mass has high wind warning again I know we don't like beantown but man they taking s beating.

if anybody wants to know..i just got an alert that Hackettstown schools will be closed lol. When will de Blasio make his announcement..5am?

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Big jump east 18z gfs

forget it soul we see 2 inches.

jon ae you basing your forecast on the gfs. it is the only model that gives our area less than 6" of snow. look for 6-12" from Manhattan north. also james (syo) the north shore of LI should do well also. mike (math) the issue with your area is that snow probably will not accumulate on the heated city roads and sidewalks but the park should do just fine.

I don't think this "trend" with the GFS is real. This situation does not favor eastward correction. Model noise. Have to see the 00z suites, but by then it's too late anyway lol

I went to log off. Saw 2 more pages. Composed
Myself. Waiting for tonight 10 pm. Sorry for the rant earlier. Kept it inside too long.

I’m still not enthuse though. Catskills forecast for 18-20 after 20-30 5 days ago.

rb924119 wrote:I don't think this "trend" with the GFS is real. This situation does not favor eastward correction. Model noise. Have to see the 00z suites, but by then it's too late anyway lol

The only model noise, IMHO, *IS the outlier westward sol'n lol.

The only thing that gives me pause is that the gfs was the only model the sniffed out that east shift on that storm we had a few years ago (can't remember if that was nemo or something else) may be it's doing the same with the West shift

We shall see, but I find it funny how everybody is throwing out the hottest model in this range and the only one that has remained consistent with others trending toward it, except for the GFS which has also been remarkably consistent. Again western solution makes physical sense to me still.