March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

I think our monster storm to the NE or ENE is affecting this coastal ever so slightly. If it were further east, I could see this coastal moving a bit more east. That is one feature the models are struggling with ever so slightly

amugs wrote:Great post by Geo (33)
People. when you have the RGEM, HRDPS, Euro, EPS and Ukie in one corner. And you have the GFS and NAM in the other. 98% of the time, you're going to toss the GFS and NAM.

Whose post is that?

amugs wrote:Miller B's are nuts due to many factors but the major one is where it closes off for this area. Tonight's Meoscale models will be telling.

Agreed- With so many variables in play the slightest change can effect the close off time. Waiting game.

SoulSingMG wrote:Thoughts?

From what I can gather, he must think the low will trend east in time. Tonights 0z runs will be huge.

Oy so Frank you go further lower totals into southern Westchester or too early to tell. I can't take this if I get skunked again I'm don't not even go look at Monday.

NWS now has rain in the 40s on the east end tmw. Wintry mix for the rest of the island in the upper 30s with a few slushy inches possible

Alex- you know all too well (as one of the senior members) the NWS forecasts are all over the place. I anticipate a tick to the east this evening as well and agree with the aforementioned points our storm off the east coast from last week is causing model mayhem and truly believe this will be a nowcast situation. Precip rates will be so heavy that whoever falls under banding could experience 2-3"/hr rates IMO.

nutleyblizzard wrote:

amugs wrote:Great post by Geo (33)
People. when you have the RGEM, HRDPS, Euro, EPS and Ukie in one corner. And you have the GFS and NAM in the other. 98% of the time, you're going to toss the GFS and NAM.

Man people need to chill out!!! Its nowcasting time folks. Yes you want to look at the short range models, but also current map observations and radars.

Which one of you guys has the bar? Maybe time to pass around a few bottles...

Cranky wx guy seems to think NWS is too low and this will end up coleer

aiannone wrote:Cranky wx guy seems to think NWS is too low and this will end up coleer

Omg.....I can't. Lol

RGEM crushes NYC still

At this point, it is a nowcast. 2 camps of models. Can't lean either way. I feel my map, and others, is a good compromise.

3km roughly 20 inches for me! Man what a cutoff to east

aiannone wrote:Cranky wx guy seems to think NWS is too low and this will end up coleer

Is coleer anything like covfefe? If so, we're all screwed!

I think I'm going to make some very minor adjustments to my snow map. It will be largely unchanged for our area, maybe a bit on Long Island and putting NYC on the edge a bit more. More of a change for South Jersey/Philly which most people on here don't care about anyway.

Have to echo what I believe Baby Godzilla stated earlier. The NY Metro region constantly surfs the rain/snow line with lack of model consensus. What happened to the days when model consensus was more the norm - maybe those days just never existed.

Regardless - you have to give all forecasters here and elsewhere their praise. Forecasting this stuff can't be easy for this area. It takes a deep knowledge of the atmosphere in our region, and even still it's no science. Good job to our guys here regardless of the outcome - you put in serious work and it's much appreciated.

Frank_Wx wrote:RGEM crushes NYC still

At this point, it is a nowcast. 2 camps of models. Can't lean either way. I feel my map, and others, is a good compromise.

this is just CRAZY..my sister just called and said  Bryam township has a warning of 1-2 feet...we are maybe getting 1 -2 inches.... ...and a stomp of my foot.....mad as hell..   ...rant over..zen..going to be what its going to be...

Thank you Frank for all you and the guys do...I just hope we come in closer to your map vs..Syos's map....

James- come back from the ledge. It's not over.

So here's Upton's latest freaky forecast of warnings and advisories:

North & West of NYC, Winter Storm Warnings which also include Manhattan, SI, Bronx, Brooklyn, NORTHERN Queens, NORTHERN Nassau for 4-8". (Jman, don't worry—we still have 7-12" forecast up in Westchester lol)

Southern Queens, Southern Nassau and Suffolk = WWA.

crippo84 wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:Shafted twice in a row now after February which was really May.  Looks like it’s just a matter of waiting for the NWS to drop the Winter Storm Warnings for NYC metro and LI. Then it’s onto spring and see you all next late fall. God bless

I can see Manhattan, Bronx, and perhaps SI staying in the warning.  I wouldn't be surprised if eastern areas of NYC are dropped to advisory.

You called it. NWS dropped southern Queens from the Warning and put them into an Advisory. Usually when they do that It'll be southern Queens and all of Brooklyn in the advisory, but this time Brooklyn stays in the warning. Northern Nassau is in WSW too, southern Nassau WWA. Warning is for 4"-8" of snow instead of previous 6"-12"

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 13
inches, with localized amounts up to 16 inches, are expected.
Heavy snow will move into the area midday and continue into
early evening. Snowfall rates could approach 2 inches an hour.

* WHERE...In Pennsylvania, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Pike and Wayne
Counties. In New York, Delaware and Sullivan Counties.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult to
impossible, including during the evening commute on Wednesday.
Be prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times.
Heavy snow may bring down tree limbs onto power lines leading to
some power outages.

Craig Allen posted this: This scenario has been playing out all morning in the snow weenie community from 9am on-----
Last night's NAMs brought a massive snowstorm to much of the region. But the morning run probably had many climbing out on a ledge after a 'warm, tucked-in storm' NAM run. It sorta caved
to the mostly wet GFS. (GFS is still the warmest of all)
But wait! ♪Ohhhhhh Canada♫ GGEM and RGEM are much snowier. 
Hold on! The Euro is posting. I think......Wait........one more panel......C'mon Euro. YES! The Euro barely waivers and preserves our snowstorm. All hail King Euro!!!
You can step off the ledge now and resume posting your snow total maps. lmao. This is what meteorologists have to answer to, lol
I'll post more technical info later after truly looking at the model output. [size=0]

aiannone wrote:Cranky wx guy seems to think NWS is too low and this will end up coleer

Cranky retweeted Frank's map.

Wow 3km and rgem give us around 18 to 20 soul!! Even euro is good. Thinking we go b on higher end and maybe over 12. The weight of even 3 to 6 is go cause major power issues. Especially furs.

Yea mikey mine Albany got me at 12-18. Going to be a lots of power problems I lost mine last storm and the trees are damaged from the heavy snow.

jmanley32 wrote:Wow 3km and rgem give us around 18 to 20 soul!! Even euro is good. Thinking we go b on higher end and maybe over 12. The weight of even 3 to 6 is go cause major power issues. Especially furs.

Watch meso models tonight. We're gonna be in for it, I FEEL it Jman.

Jeeze haven't even been look winds I can see advisories or even blizzard warnings going up if 3km verifies. 45 to 50 mph gusts in southern Westchester 50 to 60 on Long island and queens.

Winter Storm Warning

(Lower Hudson Valley, Southern NY State, Northeast NJ)

WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
4 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 16
inches with localized amounts up to 18 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New
York.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 4 AM EST Thursday. The heaviest
snow is expected in the afternoon when snowfall rates of 1 to 2
inches per hour are possible