March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

lglickman wrote:so these western solutions are gaining credibility?

They've always had credibility I just think most don't want to hear or accept it. Things are still looking good if you're away from the immediate coast. Time will tell.

crippo84 wrote:

lglickman wrote:so these western solutions are gaining credibility?

They've always had credibility I just think most don't want to hear or accept it.  Things are still looking good if you're away from the immediate coast. Time will tell.

Look great for me

mikeypizano wrote:Frank, what kind of ratio will we have?

8:1 coast, 10:1 N&W

lglickman wrote:so these western solutions are gaining credibility?

I would say yes at this point

crippo84 wrote:

lglickman wrote:so these western solutions are gaining credibility?

They've always had credibility I just think most don't want to hear or accept it.  Things are still looking good if you're away from the immediate coast. Time will tell.

Yes, immediate coast trend is looking poor for snow. The H5 low is tracking right over them on the NAM. Let's see what other models show today. As Scott stated, this will turn into a nowcast no matter what.

3km nam snow map

Syosnow94 final call. (Hope it busts)




Yellow snow to heavy rain to snow. 1-2” rain. C-2” snow
Green snow to mix to snow. 3-6”
Blue 8-14”. All snow

If this verifies I’ll take a break from the board for a long time. If that’s the case I wish you all well

Frank_Wx wrote:3km nam snow map

14” in the city proper. 2” 16 miles s and e

syosnow94 wrote:Syosnow94 final call. (Hope it busts)




Yellow snow to heavy rain to snow. 1-2” rain. C-2” snow
Green snow to mix to snow. 3-6”
Blue 8-14”. All snow

If this verifies I’ll take a break from the board for a long time.  If that’s the case I wish you all well

sad..i like your first map

Sorry mom. I actually think the NWS cancels the WSW for all of LI and coastal NE Jersey today

Emo final call....the Drake map (Because Miller Bs hit us back to back...)

ABC thinking..i don't follow anybody else on TV but i think that's common since most migrated from the old abc weather forum

12z rgem better than nam

emokid51783 wrote:

Emo final call....the Drake map (Because Miller Bs hit us back to back...)

Haha - love the Drake reference. And I think this is a good speculation at this point.

weatherwatchermom wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:Syosnow94 final call. (Hope it busts)




Yellow snow to heavy rain to snow. 1-2” rain. C-2” snow
Green snow to mix to snow. 3-6”
Blue 8-14”. All snow

If this verifies I’ll take a break from the board for a long time.  If that’s the case I wish you all well

sad..i like your first map

Your forgot to give me cold fog and maybe the threat of brush fire. It's the NNJ dry slot. This winter's pattern. My prediction, if the late weekend/ Monday storm is big big snow, you will be back. It's in your blood. But like most of us, its hiatus from boring spring weather till tropical season begins. Be well!!!!!

emokid51783 wrote:

Emo final call....the Drake map (Because Miller Bs hit us back to back...)

I lol'd

12z RGEM

Back and forth she’s goes, where she winds up nobody knows, time will tell the tale of this storm

Frank_Wx wrote:12z RGEM

Thats good news that RGEM is holding its ground. A very reliable model. Now watch the Goofus show a cutter.

I have to say, I have been following and studying the weather for 40 years and hands down, the NY metro area is one of the most difficult placesin the country to forecast winter weather. Hats off to all on here that contribute to such detailed winter weather forecasts!

@crankywxguy: "It's March. The low is tracking fairly close. It's daytime. Yet if you note your layers you'll see why this makes sense (and perhaps even more in time, but, we'll see)." He ain't buying a low that close to the coast. Go check out his reasonings. Everyone breeeathe ;-)

syosnow94 wrote:Syosnow94 final call. (Hope it busts)




Yellow snow to heavy rain to snow. 1-2” rain. C-2” snow
Green snow to mix to snow. 3-6”
Blue 8-14”. All snow

If this verifies I’ll take a break from the board for a long time.  If that’s the case I wish you all well

"yellow snow" to heavy rain???

Holy crap. I was always told to avoid yellow snow as a child, but how is that possible if it's already yellow when it's falling from the sky?

That's gonna suck big time.

Is there any way this thing can still come a bit East, or is that off the table? The models are showing very low totals for South Jersey by I-95, but the snow maps on here still keep us in the 4" + range.

Anything east of nyc can be shafted the city close to 9 my opinion but deff a now cast

SoulSingMG wrote:@crankywxguy: "It's March. The low is tracking fairly close. It's daytime. Yet if you note your layers you'll see why this makes sense (and perhaps even more in time, but, we'll see)."  He ain't buying a low that close to the coast. Go check out his reasonings. Everyone breeeathe ;-)

12-18 for me in Tarrytown?

adamfitz1969 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:@crankywxguy: "It's March. The low is tracking fairly close. It's daytime. Yet if you note your layers you'll see why this makes sense (and perhaps even more in time, but, we'll see)."  He ain't buying a low that close to the coast. Go check out his reasonings. Everyone breeeathe ;-)

12-18 for me in Tarrytown?

LOL you almost made me spit out my drink

12z GFS continues to be bad for coastal snow lovers. Surface Low is actually on the NJ shore. Upper level low is right over South Jersey. Temps are warm and rain makes it into NYC and most of Central NJ (of course SJ is all wet). If this GFS run verified the only people getting significant snow are northwest NJ, NEPA, and the Hudson Valley north of NYC.
I continue to think this is overdone (the GFS west track and rain) -- but not completely off the mark. (Remember the GFS last week was an all rain event -- and most people went over to snow -- so it has been wrong recently). It still would make me hesitant to go with very high snow totals anywhere east of the NJ Turnpike. Even if the GFS is CLOSE, mixing in the middle of the storm will cut down on (not elimiante, but cut down on) totals.

Really nice maps everyone. Thanks for all you do.