Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Without question this sucka is gaining momentum. And the NW trends are real. When looking at the globals the GFS I believe is actually leading the way ovr the Euro. Lets quickly look at H 5 and compare the subtle, yet very important differences that will either pull the surface low track on or just SE of the 70/40 BM or keep the track further S&E of the BM.

There are two troughs to pay attention to. 1) the steering trough dropping in from the north, and 2) the main trough that is generation our storm system to the south. How it plays out will be about main trough axis orientation, (when and where), relative to the steering trough position.

Lets take a look at the Euro vs the GFS valid 00z March 13th. Notice we are under 48hrs yet there are these subtle yet vitally important differences still. Notice in the first images, the Euro, the main trough orientation is still positively tilted, and the take notice where the steering trough is positioned. The result of a more positively tilted trough at this position, and a steering trough a tad to far south is a storm track that is more NE and well S&E of the BM.





However; on the GFS, the main trough axis is already tilted to neutral because the steering trough is a tad further N allowing for heights to increase faster out ahead of the main trough axis. The result is higher heights means a strom track oriented more N to NNE and a track closer to the BM.




So which one is right? Well for now if you look at some of the hi res short range models, ie: the RGEM and 1k/3k NAM, they both agree with the GFS on main track orientation relative to the steering trough by 00z March 13th






The Euro seems to be playing catchup with the NW trend. More than likely its the improved trend of the +PNA ridge in the west that has allowed for the delay in the arrival of the N energy/steering rough such that we can raise heights appropriately along the coast to bring the LP up. Watch the hi res models today and tonight for changes to the Main trough axis and position relative to the steering trough position. Another thing to watch is when the Main trough actually closes off. The 3K NAM closes it off near the Va/NC coast which tilts the main trough axis negative sooner causing a phase with the steering trough sooner and a much more potent storm and track even further N&W. The 12k NAM closes off H5 of the Main trough much later so the trough axis tilts neg later so the storm track is a tad further S&E relative to the 3K.

I fully expect further shifts N&W to the storm track today and tonight on the models. How far though?

Crap I did lock the wrong thread by mistake. Thanks Janet

FIVE LETTERS: S.R.E.F.S.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! <3 <3 <3 <3 <3 <3 <3 <3 <3 <3 <3 <3 <3

I THINK THE NAM BOUTTA CALL THE SREFS AND RAISE THEM I THINK OMGGGGGGG!!!!!!!!!!!! H5 LOOKS RIDICULOUS!!!!!

OH. MY. GOD. NAM IS GOING NUCLEAR HERE GOOD LORD I MUST BE IN HEAVEN!!!