Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

He’s doing it on purpose mom. Hopefully he saw the NAM and passed out

weatherwatchermom wrote:Rb you posted 25min ago....and left us hanging

He always does...

The nam is a miss for most of the area except central li and east so is the hi res nam

syosnow94 wrote:He’s doing it on purpose mom. Hopefully he saw the NAM and passed out

Ha ha made bf for boys made cup of tea and came back to birds chirping..lol

Nah, something came up. It was actually not nearly as good as I thought, unfortunately. Too much separation at H5 still

rb924119 wrote:Nah, something came up. It was actually not nearly as good as I thought, unfortunately. Too much separation at H5 still

Tx rb

How does the NAM go from nuclear to miss in the same run?

To me it looked like the NAM showed improvements at H5. It really looked like the northern stream was going into full phase mode with the southern low. Instead it kicked the low east. A met from another board pointed that out and thinks the NAM surface map might not of caught up to the H5 map.

The Euro is going wind up to be the solution Just think this thing reorganizes in New England All the METS leaning that way

oldtimer wrote:The Euro is going wind up to be the solution  Just think this thing reorganizes in New England  All the METS leaning that way

Agreed. This has eastern New England special written all over it which is what the Mets I put stock into are saying. 12z runs should continue the NAM's theme.

The names precip did shift west from ending at ri ma border to we'll into CT I'd say that's pretty big shift. 3km at 06z had little and now has at least advisory snow into NYC. It's not a miss just not a Godzilla and I do not think we done. Stef showed 10 to 12.

algae888 wrote:The nam is a miss for most of the area except central li and east so is the hi res nam

It is not a total miss, you just don't get into heaviest precip the further north and especially west you are. It still gives HV 1-3/2-4 type event.

Long island sees 15 inches on 3km NYC 4. Wow I'm start dis like li lol

jmanley32 wrote:The names precip did shift west from ending at ri ma border to we'll into CT I'd say that's pretty big shift. 3km at 06z had little and now has at least advisory snow into NYC. It's not a miss just not a Godzilla and I do not think we done. Stef showed 10 to 12.

We cannot just rely on the SREF's. Every other model shows only a glancing blow at best for the area with a big storm from the cape up thru Maine. They'll likely get blizzard warnings tomorrow.

Extremely busy today shopping for apartments. Will have a blog and 1st call snow map out tonight.

Folks keep in mind a 3-6” event this time of year is very good!

Sroc great write up.
NAM at H5 made improvements - it is a matter of about 6 hours for a full phase and that will pull the center back towards the coast bring the heavier snow axis back.
If the srefs are onto something that would be great.
Euro playing catch up IMO with its evolution still at H5.
NAM was a hair away again from a bomb.
Off hour ARW model was a BD redux.
This is a big shift west!


We needs another improvement on the models for 12Z and 18Z being the northern energy phasing in with the Southern energy sooner and then it is bigly game on for this board.
Are we trending back to teh original storm depiction from earlier in the week? I hope so and that is what prompted Frank to be calling this potential.

One thing is pretty certain LI gets teh goods once again so it seems on these runs.

This is always been in Eastern New England storm and maybe Central Long Island East the northern vort is just not digging enough

syosnow94 wrote:Folks keep in mind a 3-6” event this time of year is very good!

ya u say that cuz it has u getting 12 to 18 congrats it's ur storm. I'm not giving up yet.

People I’m hoping like we all are. But what I keep hearing is we need this, we need that, if only this and so on. It’s becoming pretty clear this won’t be a huge deal for us. Lets resist the temptation to wishcast and accept a 4-6” event which I’ll sign for right now

Not true Jman the highest I’ve seen imby on the models is 8”. Out east by Scott is a foot perhaps. Still overdone imho

syosnow94 wrote:People I’m hoping like we all are. But what I keep hearing is we need this, we need that,  if only this and so on. It’s becoming pretty clear this won’t be a huge deal for us. Lets resist the temptation to wishcast and accept a 4-6” event which I’ll sign for right now

Unless you live inland such as me...

I'm done with this storm. We aren't seeing the magnitude of the changes that we need to be saying to get us all involved in a big way, save for the immediate coasts, LI, and New England. Sorry folks, but my towel is in had, and I'm winding up for the pitch.

rb924119 wrote:I'm done with this storm. We aren't seeing the magnitude of the changes that we need to be saying to get us all involved in a big way, save for the immediate coasts, LI, and New England. Sorry folks, but my towel is in had, and I'm winding up for the pitch.

It was never our storm, really. I beat a dead horse but @crankywxguy laid this all out two days ago (posted link in last thread). It does make me selfishly sad that eastern New England will cash in. If we can't have it, I don't want anyone to have it! Lol.

[quote="syosnow94"]Folks keep in mind a 3-6” event this time of year is very good![/quote


Any snow in March to me is a gift...