March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Trough going neg..going to tug her back west

Scott you think we go 4-6” in Nassau

Any chance for 6+ on the shore?

If it keeps tugging West??

Smittyaj623 wrote:Any chance for 6+ on the shore?

I think so if it tugs west enough. That would set up the heavy bands right over the NJ shore instead of Long Island.

Nah mugs I haven't had a change it's 2 to 4 here. It would be nice to see that band go the tiny tick west into my area but I've accepted this is a eastern storm. Hoping I can squeeze out 6 but I'm very sick and been sleeping most the day. Usually id care but I'm just to sick to.

The Westher zzChannel has 3” in the eastern boroughs of NYC and 7” here imby 12 miles east

syosnow94 wrote:The Westher zzChannel has 3” in the eastern boroughs of NYC and 7” here imby 12 miles east

that's a close call.

and now i'm hearimg.....another nor'easter next week....geez

Heavy rain in South Jersey right now. Not often we get a storm close enough to bring heavy precipitation bands into SNJ but not into NNJ and NYC. What a close-call this has been.

mwilli5783 wrote:and now i'm hearimg.....another nor'easter next week....geez

This is more for Long Range thread, but gfs does show a storm moving by to our south off the mid-Atlantic around next Tuesday. Doesn’t show it turning into a coastal and moving north - but then again the gfs showed the same thing for this storm a week ago too and it clearly turned north (just not quick enough) so who knows.

Sroc4 could u explain more about the trough going neg. And want that means for us in nj

Trough going negative allies the upper level low to pull the surface low closer to the coast and expand the precipitation further west

mancave25 wrote:Sroc4 could u explain more about the trough going neg. And want that means for us in nj

When the trough is negative it tends to stop the storms eastward progress and track the storm closer to the coast, more north than northeast. A positive tilt tends to shoot the storm more out to sea or northeast (since that’s where the upper air flow is taking it). In theory if the trough is negative the low should track closer to the coast here which could bump up totals a little bit especially right along the coast.

I think it should be noted that precip totals along the jersey shore may in fact be higher than progged last night, but I’d be concerned about temps because there is some heavy rain along the coast now and the longer that stays rain the less it matters that the qpf is higher than expected there. I’m thinking the change to snow at the coast may not happen as quickly as thought which could negate heavier totals.

Did h5 close off

Does anyone else see this going neg.

I mean it looks more negative right now to me too.

Is the trough negative and how was it forecasted to be at this point?

Just started snowing in Stillwater NJ at 1190 ft altitude, it’s coming ! A lot of people up here just got there power back so it’s ok if we miss out on this one ! Good Luck !

Just started snowing in Stillwater NJ at 1190 ft altitude, it’s coming ! A lot of people up here just got there power back so it’s ok if we miss out on this one ! Good Luck !

TWC is actually getting comical now. 30 minutes after showing 3” in the Boroughs, 7” by me and a foot in montauk....they just showed 1” city, 2” by me 4” Islip and 7” Montauk

The on air personality was sooooo confused. What the hells going on here

No Frank + No Scott + No aMugs + No Alex =. NO STORM. ITS A SIMPLE FORMULA

syosnow94 wrote:TWC is actually getting comical now. 30 minutes after showing 3” in the Boroughs, 7” by me and a foot in montauk....they just showed 1” city, 2” by me 4” Islip and 7” Montauk

The on air personality was sooooo confused. What the hells going on here

Do you think the persistence of some warmer air and rain at the outset is affecting their projections at all? 39* here, not dropping very quickly.

It’s 39* here also

I don’t know. I think once precip starts here temps will wetbulb down and we will snow