March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Frank_Wx wrote:

sroc4 wrote:12K slight improved aloft...3K looking better aloft as well.

Both increased snowfall amounts

12-km NAM actually decreased snow totals for NYC. The 3-km NAM techincally "increased" snow totals, but it's barely noticeable on the map.

Stick a fork in it...

"way east?" lol

FWIW:

Math23x7 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

sroc4 wrote:12K slight improved aloft...3K looking better aloft as well.

Both increased snowfall amounts

12-km NAM actually decreased snow totals for NYC.  The 3-km NAM techincally "increased" snow totals, but it's barely noticeable on the map.

Stick a fork in it...

It increased totals on LI and CT

What about NYC esp the Bronx and queens

frank 638 wrote:What about NYC esp the Bronx and queens

C-2"

A few inches at best

RGEM

Ok. Almost didn't bother, but want to be as close to accurate as possible. Sooooo without futher ado, my final call snow map (*crickets*). Just shifted everything about 30 miles east or so more or less with a few tweaks around the edges.

Yellow: 1-3"
Blue: 3-5"
Purple/Pink: 5-10"
Orange: 10-15"

Man oh man...

billg315 wrote:Ok. Almost didn't bother, but want to be as close to accurate as possible. Sooooo without futher ado, my final call snow map (*crickets*). Just shifted everything about 30 miles east or so more or less with a few tweaks around the edges.

Yellow: 1-3"
Blue: 3-5"
Purple/Pink: 5-10"
Orange: 10-15"

Now it’s basically my map from 24 hours ago

Well, wasn't expecting much anyway, we are below average for the season and really didn't think we would get there after the way things have been this winter. Syo, drinks are on you if you get the goods this time!

syosnow94 wrote:

billg315 wrote:Ok. Almost didn't bother, but want to be as close to accurate as possible. Sooooo without futher ado, my final call snow map (*crickets*). Just shifted everything about 30 miles east or so more or less with a few tweaks around the edges.

Yellow: 1-3"
Blue: 3-5"
Purple/Pink: 5-10"
Orange: 10-15"

Now it’s basically my map from 24 hours ago

lol. Yep, no doubt. You were (again) on the money with this one!

GFS is about .6-.75" of liquid for suffolk county on east

aiannone wrote:GFS is about .6-.75" of liquid for suffolk county on east

At 8:1 that’s 5-6”. Very low end warning criteria. I actually think the NWS shrinkS theIR advisories And trim totals by another 1-2” at their early evening advisories

syosnow94 wrote:

aiannone wrote:GFS is about .6-.75" of liquid for suffolk county on east

At 8:1 that’s 5-6”. Very low end warning criteria.  I actually think the NWS shrinkS theIR advisories And trim totals by another 1-2” at their early evening advisories

I think the warnings stay out and suffolk. That would support the 4-7" warning they have out right now

JMA woudl be nuts if it verified - maybe seeing the western shift?

Upton just reissued warnings. Upped the lower end up an inch. Now 5-7" for western suffolk 6-9" with localized 12" in eastern suffolk. GFS supports that. .7" in western suffolk and .9-1.0" in eastern suffolk which at a temp between 33-34* that equates to about 5-7" for western suffolk and 8-12" for eastern suffolk which supports their warning exactly.

             

aiannone wrote:Upton just reissued warnings. Upped the lower end up an inch. Now 5-7" for western suffolk 6-9" with localized 12" in eastern suffolk. GFS supports that. .7" in western suffolk and .9-1.0" in eastern suffolk which at a temp between 33-34* that equates to about 5-7" for western suffolk and 8-12" for eastern suffolk which supports their warning exactly.

They are seeing the slight westward shift - UKIE is out in about 5 minutes from meteocenter with precip - word on the boards is it looks to have come west with another jog - how much we'll soon know. This maybe one of the most frustrating storms.

My point and click forecast which is IDENTICAL to Scott’s in Wasing river 30 miles away. He’s under a warning in eastern Suffolk I’m under an advisory in extreme eastern Nassau. It doesn’t line up?

TonightSnow, mainly after 1am. Low around 32. Wind chill values between 20 and 30. North wind 10 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
TuesdaySnow before 5pm, then a slight chance of rain and snow. High near 39. Wind chill values between 20 and 30. Breezy, with a northwest wind 18 to 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

The 12Z GEFS is west but too little too late...

It’s never too late folks. Let’s keep er coming left

OHHHH CANADA!!!!! <33333