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Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

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Post by SNOW MAN Sat Mar 17, 2018 5:44 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:NAM looked amazing. But GFS did not. Look at thus trend over the PNA region. Ridge going flatter and flatter each consecutive run.

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 4 Gfs_z500a_namer_fh84_trend.gif.5c4b93db2f7eabb92ab287be4c0377c5

Do we still have a chance of this storm still coming are way ? I noticed the extended forecast for my area has partly cloudy for Tues and Wed already.
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Post by docstox12 Sat Mar 17, 2018 7:04 am

Wow, NWS backed off big time, no snow now Mon night or Tuesday.They just mention a 'period" of snow Tuesday night 1 to 3 AM, and a littl more Wed morning! Looks like those models with the "fizzle" solution are taking priority ATM.Huge shift from yesterday's disco on NWS.Looks like a 2 to 3 inch situation to me up here.


Last edited by docstox12 on Sat Mar 17, 2018 9:11 am; edited 3 times in total
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Post by richb521 Sat Mar 17, 2018 7:19 am

Windshield wiper mode in full effect as Bernie Rayno would say!

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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Mar 17, 2018 7:20 am

SIGH. Stop (clap) living (clap) and (clap) dying (clap) by (clap) models (clap) each (clap) run!!!! Models will not have a handle on this evolution until Sunday PM. Please! Relax!
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Post by nutleyblizzard Sat Mar 17, 2018 7:37 am

The global models have been struggling mightily this winter... I suspect LaNina may be the cause. As I've been saying all winter, the hi-res models are the way to go and will be in range tomorrow. Storms have trended north/west inside 48 hours and until I'm proven otherwise, this event will be no different.
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Post by mikeypizano Sat Mar 17, 2018 7:51 am

@nutleyblizzard wrote:The global models have been struggling mightily this winter... I suspect LaNina may be the cause. As I've been saying all winter, the hi-res models are the way to go and will be in range tomorrow. Storms have trended north/west inside 48 hours and until I'm proven otherwise, this event will be no different.

Sadly they have also trended west west west then EAST AT THE LAST MINUTE as well... No
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Post by Quietace Sat Mar 17, 2018 7:54 am

@SoulSingMG wrote:SIGH. Stop (clap) living (clap) and (clap) dying (clap) by (clap) models (clap) each (clap) run!!!! Models will not have a handle on this evolution until Sunday PM. Please! Relax!
This paper from Dr. Lance Bosart should be updated for today to show people still have not learned any lessons...
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0434%282003%2918%3C520%3AWTWAAF%3E2.0.CO%3B2

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Post by WeatherBob Sat Mar 17, 2018 8:03 am

Ryan - gotta love ya for your scientific input. You hit me right in the heart with it. Keep up the good work!
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Post by sroc4 Sat Mar 17, 2018 8:05 am

@SoulSingMG wrote:SIGH. Stop (clap) living (clap) and (clap) dying (clap) by (clap) models (clap) each (clap) run!!!! Models will not have a handle on this evolution until Sunday PM. Please! Relax!

Thank You Soul for saying this.  Folks...listen.  Major face palm action going on right now.  The last storm was a mere 4-5 days ago.  Have you forgotten what happened last time in such a short time ago??? The same people do the same thing, write off the system when the models are doing what they are doing, then in 2 days from now when the models start to catch on to what is ACTUALLY going to happen the back peddling occurs.  Most TV Mets live and die with one model.  What they say now is not Gospel.  The NWS is the biggest offender to putting out the forecasts based on the model output so its no surprise as to what they are currently saying.  Their forecast will change 17 times between now and Tuesday. Count on it.  

Temper expectations, esp along the coast, and sit back and let it playout.  DO NOT post..."its over for the coast" crap in this thread, because its not over for the coast.  We have ALL of Sat, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday before wave 1 is upon us.  That means we still have 3.5-4 days of model mayhem.  Again think long and hard back to 4-5days ago and recall what the models were doing 3-4 days out vs what ended up being reality when we got inside of 12-24hrs and even now cast.  Think about it..................scratch scratch scratch .................Now please sit back and read below.    

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 4 Hr_72_10
Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 4 Hr_90_10
Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 4 Hr90_g10
Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 4 Hr_10811


ANDDDD  The NAM(granted its not quite in its ideal range) is further N with Wave 1 energy by 00z Tues.  By 18z Tuesday it has a better PNA ridge; therefore, confluence is further N and so is the surface low

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 4 Namcon14
Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 4 Nam_hr12
Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 4 Namcon13



Patience grasshoppers...let it play out.  We have until Monday 12z.....at least.


Last edited by sroc4 on Sat Mar 17, 2018 8:12 am; edited 2 times in total

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by sroc4 Sat Mar 17, 2018 8:07 am

@Quietace wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:SIGH. Stop (clap) living (clap) and (clap) dying (clap) by (clap) models (clap) each (clap) run!!!! Models will not have a handle on this evolution until Sunday PM. Please! Relax!
This paper from Dr. Lance Bosart should be updated for today to show people still have not learned any lessons...
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0434%282003%2918%3C520%3AWTWAAF%3E2.0.CO%3B2

S Roc's reaction to you both.......

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 4 Giphy

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Mar 17, 2018 8:09 am

Thank you Sroc...just checking in....and always great explanation for us to understand...
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Post by Grselig Sat Mar 17, 2018 8:16 am

@SoulSingMG wrote:SIGH. Stop (clap) living (clap) and (clap) dying (clap) by (clap) models (clap) each (clap) run!!!! Models will not have a handle on this evolution until Sunday PM. Please! Relax!

I think Crankypants said the same thing!  We may win or lose but the game is still being played.   Thanks SROC for your usual sanity as well.
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Post by Guest Sat Mar 17, 2018 8:31 am

Great job Ryan.

Scott I don’t understand the reason for your post chastising people for model hugging or saying the threat is over yadda yadda yadda. I just went back and read the last two pages and saw hardly any. Maybe two guys MAYBE but even their posts weren’t much of what you complained about. Did I miss something?

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Mar 17, 2018 8:39 am

Just saw Scott already posted the 6Z 12km NAM above


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sat Mar 17, 2018 9:12 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by sroc4 Sat Mar 17, 2018 8:47 am

syosnow94 wrote:Great job Ryan.

Scott I don’t understand the reason for your post chastising people for model hugging or saying the threat is over yadda yadda yadda.  I just went back and read the last two pages and saw hardly any. Maybe two guys MAYBE but even their posts weren’t much of what you complained about. Did I miss something?

Check PM

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Snow88 Sat Mar 17, 2018 8:56 am

GFS has trough after trough in the east with another possible storm at the end of this month.
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Post by Snow88 Sat Mar 17, 2018 8:59 am

9z SREF should look good for our area since the ARW's and NMB's are amped.
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Post by docstox12 Sat Mar 17, 2018 9:13 am

Oooops, sorry guys if my 7:04 AM post upset anybody.I was only the messenger reporting the NWS disco this morning.Didn't want to cast negativity here.I want an area wide snowtsorm like everybody else.
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Post by Guest Sat Mar 17, 2018 9:19 am

@sroc4 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Great job Ryan.

Scott I don’t understand the reason for your post chastising people for model hugging or saying the threat is over yadda yadda yadda.  I just went back and read the last two pages and saw hardly any. Maybe two guys MAYBE but even their posts weren’t much of what you complained about. Did I miss something?

Check PM

Got it. Now it makes sense

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Post by Guest Sat Mar 17, 2018 9:20 am

@docstox12 wrote:Oooops, sorry guys if my 7:04 AM post upset anybody.I was only the messenger reporting the NWS disco this morning.Didn't want to cast negativity here.I want an area wide snowtsorm like everybody else.
Doc you’re post was fine

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Mar 17, 2018 9:26 am

syosnow94 wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:Oooops, sorry guys if my 7:04 AM post upset anybody.I was only the messenger reporting the NWS disco this morning.Didn't want to cast negativity here.I want an area wide snowtsorm like everybody else.
Doc you’re post was fine

Doc is a trouble maker, always has been. He lies back in the weeds waiting for moments like this to pounce.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Mar 17, 2018 9:33 am

Arws are a big hit for snj and Philly area.Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 4 5aad1310
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Post by docstox12 Sat Mar 17, 2018 9:33 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:Oooops, sorry guys if my 7:04 AM post upset anybody.I was only the messenger reporting the NWS disco this morning.Didn't want to cast negativity here.I want an area wide snowtsorm like everybody else.
Doc you’re post was fine

Doc is a trouble maker, always has been. He lies back in the weeds waiting for moments like this to pounce.

LOL, throw gasoline on the fire why don't ya!!!!!
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Post by docstox12 Sat Mar 17, 2018 9:33 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:Oooops, sorry guys if my 7:04 AM post upset anybody.I was only the messenger reporting the NWS disco this morning.Didn't want to cast negativity here.I want an area wide snowtsorm like everybody else.
Doc you’re post was fine

Doc is a trouble maker, always has been. He lies back in the weeds waiting for moments like this to pounce.

LOL, throw gasoline on the fire why don't ya!!!!!

I'm banishing myself to weather banter and OTI,LOL.


Last edited by docstox12 on Sat Mar 17, 2018 9:35 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 17, 2018 9:34 am

The trends have not been great but there is still time for them to revert. The PNA ridge has been deamplifying due to a large upper level low off the coast of California sending some upper energy crashing into the west coast. The other negative trend is the initial 500mb closed low trending weaker on guidance because the confluence over NE is too strong. The combination of the two could potentially kill this threat entirely. On the other hand, if trends reverse, it could lead to a Godzilla event for many. It's and all or nothing type setup

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