Re: June 2018 Obs & Discussions

by **nutleyblizzard** Wed Jun 06, 2018 3:01 pm

Todays 12z GFS run looks much dryer for this weekend. Remains to be seen if its a start of a trend or just a blip run.

by **sroc4** Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:12 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:Todays 12z GFS run looks much dryer for this weekend. Remains to be seen if its a start of a trend or just a blip run.

This never really was supposed to be a soaker of a weekend. A big SE Canadian HP building in is deflecting the precip shield south of most of our coverage area. Central Jersey on southward have the best chance at significant rain but even that is prob only a half a days worth. Even the euro has trended south with the precip.

by **sroc4** Fri Jun 08, 2018 3:43 pm

Big omega block over the mid CONUS extending into central Canada. With all that confluence over the N Mid Atlantic and NE if this were winter this would result in suppression depression and we would watch the mid Atlantic enjoy all the snow, but since its the late spring the big HP to the north suppresses the precip to the south (C NJ on southward), and we get to enjoy some nice but cool, relative to the time of year, weather and the weekend should be pretty nice for the NYC metro area. There still may be a stray shower Late Sat into Early Sunday though....enjoy!

June 2018 Obs & Discussions - Page 2 Spring10

June 2018 Obs & Discussions - Page 2 Spring10

June 2018 Obs & Discussions - Page 2 Spring11

by **dkodgis** Sat Jun 09, 2018 9:26 pm

This certainly has been nice for June. The air conditioning is off, saving money, the pool is around 75 and warm enough to enjoy, and the peepers are serenading. The firewood is cut, stacked, and ready for the coming of the fall in 106 days and 196 days until the first day of winter. I am happy but my son is not for he has to cut the grass which is growing robustly. I will probably start a holy war for saying this, but I could take this weather all summer.

by **weatherwatchermom** Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:26 am

dkodgis wrote:This certainly has been nice for June. The air conditioning is off, saving money, the pool is around 75 and warm enough to enjoy, and the peepers are serenading. The firewood is cut, stacked, and ready for the coming of the fall in 106 days and 196 days until the first day of winter. I am happy but my son is not for he has to cut the grass which is growing robustly. I will probably start a holy war for saying this, but I could take this weather all summer.

nope not from me...I do not need to have 90 degree weather to enjoy summer...just warm enough to swim, cool nights for a sweatshirt to watch the lightning bugs or the stars..as far as ac...I am so envious of you!!! can't open windows in our house because of allergies...have to wait to dead of winter when snow on the ground..to let in the fresh air...lol... ps...grass is growing like crazy this year..almost could cut 2 x per week right now... enjoy!!

by **rb924119** Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:48 pm

What is the point of this? Vehemently disagree that this region has to be watched for the development of anything but enhanced convection, but I guess we'll see lol

June 2018 Obs & Discussions - Page 2 Img_1510

June 2018 Obs & Discussions - Page 2 Img_1510

by **Quietace** Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:06 pm

rb924119 wrote:What is the point of this? Vehemently disagree that this region has to be watched for the development of anything but enhanced convection, but I guess we'll see lol

It is statistically insignificant but also statistically significant enough to warrant. Very Happy

by **sroc4** Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:38 am

Keep an eye on the SE coast/NE GOM for possible development in the 5-10day time frame. As JB says...ridge over troubled waters. This is not the same convection that was noted above. MJO possibly headed into phase 2 which would def support this if it gets into 2.

June 2018 Obs & Discussions - Page 2 Ecmwf_10

June 2018 Obs & Discussions - Page 2 Ecmwf_10

June 2018 Obs & Discussions - Page 2 ECMF_phase_51m_small

by **weatherwatchermom** Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:42 pm

sroc4 wrote:Keep an eye on the SE coast/NE GOM for possible development in the 5-10day time frame. As JB says...ridge over troubled waters. This is not the same convection that was noted above. MJO possibly headed into phase 2 which would def support this if it gets into 2.

what would that mean for us?

by **sroc4** Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:34 am

Not sure of the impacts, if any, for our region. Too early to tell.

by **weatherwatchermom** Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:32 am

sroc4 wrote:Not sure of the impacts, if any, for our region. Too early to tell.

Thank you...lots of out door activities at school coming...and our boat trip..but that starts on the 30th...have a great day...its ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL TODAY!!!

by **dkodgis** Thu Jun 14, 2018 4:47 pm

But the wind was kicking, deck furniture tossed around, deck plants tipped over, some cracked limbs off of trees. Weather station says gusts of 36 mph. Nice day but windier than what I expected. I was sitting under a graduation tent and giving it the evil eye as the wind really moved the top around, I had my exit planned just in case.

by **docstox12** Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:02 pm

dkodgis wrote:But the wind was kicking, deck furniture tossed around, deck plants tipped over, some cracked limbs off of trees. Weather station says gusts of 36 mph. Nice day but windier than what I expected. I was sitting under a graduation tent and giving it the evil eye as the wind really move the top around, I had my exit planned just in case.

Same here, very windy.Not used to that in these late Spring days, this is a winter thing after a snowstorm hits and passes N and E.Looks like we finally get the heat next week, right on target for the beginning of summer.

by **rb924119** Fri Jun 15, 2018 1:28 am

Hey gang!!

Gonna try to make this a normal, weekly event if I can Smile

They won't be as in depth as I usually go for the board, but I'm doing them for a different audience so I kind of can't haha That said, I think these will suffice for now........unless, of course, you want me to post separate videos lol Then I can go as technical as you like aha let me know!! But for future reference, I will be trying to trim these down to more in the 5-10 minute range, if possible, and only explain what I need to for the average person to be able understand. Anyway, I hope you enjoy it, and as usual, any questions, comments, concerns, etc. are welcome!!

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1AVc1jwP1SO0ls61cOFpaDxTmm5QTHoAq

by **dkodgis** Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:22 am

I see the heat is coming, Monday especially, and then a step back a bit in temps. I can't help but try to add 2+2=5 here. When it is a somewhat cool June, July will get hotter but not as much as we'd expect, and El Nino is coming? Drought in the south (http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?South)? Heat wave in the southwest? I think I 've seen the movie.

by **dkodgis** Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:27 am

Forgot to say while everyone else is getting torched with high temps, here in our neck of the woods we are seeing cooler temps. It seems everyone everywhere is experiencing the "same" weather, longer. Another sign of anthropogenic climate change? It is as if weather patterns were working on musician-people's time. Come late, stay long, leave late. I think CP and Doc are behind it all.

by **docstox12** Fri Jun 15, 2018 12:01 pm

dkodgis wrote:Forgot to say while everyone else is getting torched with high temps, here in our neck of the woods we are seeing cooler temps. It seems everyone everywhere is experiencing the "same" weather, longer. Another sign of anthropogenic climate change? It is as if weather patterns were working on musician-people's time. Come late, stay long, leave late. I think CP and Doc are behind it all.

LOL, Damian, CP working 24/7 in his Laboratory to make sure the Hudson Valley stays cold!

Sure is a cool day today here, partly cloudy, breezy.You could use a light jacket!

by **frank 638** Fri Jun 15, 2018 2:51 pm

It's a gergous day even though it's cool out . enjoy for now because we all now it's not going to last

by **weatherwatchermom** Sat Jun 16, 2018 7:27 am

dkodgis wrote:Forgot to say while everyone else is getting torched with high temps, here in our neck of the woods we are seeing cooler temps. It seems everyone everywhere is experiencing the "same" weather, longer. Another sign of anthropogenic climate change? It is as if weather patterns were working on musician-people's time. Come late, stay long, leave late. I think CP and Doc are behind it all.

Can't answer about the climate change..but hope the weather stays cooler...we are coming to your neck of the woods this year for vacation...Boating up the Hudson for 2.5 weeks....so let it stay cool please!

by **frank 638** Sat Jun 16, 2018 11:24 am

on my way to a yankee game on a perfect june day lets go yankees

by **frank 638** Sun Jun 17, 2018 12:48 pm

Happy father's day on a gorgeous day

by **weatherwatchermom** Sun Jun 17, 2018 3:24 pm

91* but humidity is 35%...Happy Father's Day!

by **Dunnzoo** Sun Jun 17, 2018 3:27 pm

88° here and 31% humidity, just wait til tomorrow! Happy Father's Day to all the Dads on the board!

by **amugs** Sun Jun 17, 2018 10:39 pm

Great day and Happy Dads day all dad's.
Tomorrow will be absolutely disgusting.
Looks to tamper down and then rebuild last week of June through July 4th week from the looks of the pattern.

Modoki El Nino forecasts ramping up plus GOA warm blob with low solar and Negative QBO equals a very interesting winter pattern at this time.

Geomagnetic earth effects are ramping up as well volcanic eruptions and earthquakes as well. Don't be surprised to see this norm as we move forward.

by **frank 638** Mon Jun 18, 2018 2:33 pm

90* with a real feel of 94 degree

by **Dunnzoo** Mon Jun 18, 2018 7:30 pm

Hit 93° here, not looking like I'll get any storms here, they're heading north into Hudson Valley and SWNJ.

by **billg315** Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:19 pm

Severe T’Storm ripping through Somerville right now. Heavy rain, frequent lightning, strong wind gusts.