Re: June 2018 Obs & Discussions

by **Dunnzoo** Mon Jun 18, 2018 7:30 pm

Hit 93° here, not looking like I'll get any storms here, they're heading north into Hudson Valley and SWNJ.

by **billg315** Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:19 pm

Severe T’Storm ripping through Somerville right now. Heavy rain, frequent lightning, strong wind gusts.

by **billg315** Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:21 pm

And loud thunder. Lol.

by **Dunnzoo** Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:34 pm

Yawn, 1 little cell, .04" of rain, temp dropped 8° in 15 minutes...

by **dkodgis** Tue Jun 19, 2018 4:05 pm

It was about 94 here yesterday and then the rain came. Thundered and lightening in the sky. About a quarter inch of rain. Rained for about 40 minutes. Good to have things bungied down in case there is a gust that takes an umbrella or chair into a window or door. Not much wind, just the rain. The temp dropped from 94 to 78, humid like New Orleans. It was just awful yesterday. Today, better.

Is it me or does it seem to rain twice as much as it used to from say 20 years ago?

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jun 22, 2018 10:35 am

Looks like a heat wave is approaching 4th of July week/weekend.

Fantastic.

by **Quietace** Fri Jun 22, 2018 10:41 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Looks like a heat wave is approaching 4th of July week/weekend.

Fantastic.

Looks like the significantly above normal departures move in mid-next week and last to nearly July 7-8. The Midwest/Plains will see the brunt of it though. Lucky us.

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Jun 22, 2018 11:16 am

I have a serious question for anybody on here that could help me out I'm going on a tornado chasing tour July 7th through the 12th in the planes does anybody know what that will be like will be lots of tornadoes at that time or will conditions be good for tornadoo action at that time

by **Quietace** Fri Jun 22, 2018 1:27 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:I have a serious question for anybody on here that could help me out I'm going on a tornado chasing tour July 7th through the 12th in the planes does anybody know what that will be like will be lots of tornadoes at that time or will conditions be good for tornadoo action at that time

Well, during that period a massive ridge will be centered over the Central Plains. Any major activity will be located on the fringes of the ridge (aka the Northern Plains).
Given the lead time, the ridge could adjust in phase/amplitude so check back later.

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Jun 22, 2018 1:59 pm

Quietace wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:I have a serious question for anybody on here that could help me out I'm going on a tornado chasing tour July 7th through the 12th in the planes does anybody know what that will be like will be lots of tornadoes at that time or will conditions be good for tornadoo action at that time
Well, during that period a massive ridge will be centered over the Central Plains. Any major activity will be located on the fringes of the ridge (aka the Northern Plains).
Given the lead time, the ridge could adjust in phase/amplitude so check back later.

Thanks Ace I will be flying into Denver and traveling all over with tempest tours

by **jmanley32** Fri Jun 22, 2018 4:04 pm

Hey look its me! I guess no one noticed I have been gone for a few months LOL. Just saying hi, been hot some decent thunderstorms, I think I posted about the big one that did all the damage. Tropics are quiet for now, pacific is barking which can often mean a quiet atlantic...we will see. I just have been really focused on my new job (passed probation and they seem quite happy with me) on break until July 2nd 4th and 5th off then back Friday till 2nd week of August when I get about 3 1/2 weeks off. and yes its bad but i haven't paid much attention to the weather if at all. I actually had to ask my wife what thre temps were gonna be the other day lol.

by **jmanley32** Fri Jun 22, 2018 4:05 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:
Quietace wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:I have a serious question for anybody on here that could help me out I'm going on a tornado chasing tour July 7th through the 12th in the planes does anybody know what that will be like will be lots of tornadoes at that time or will conditions be good for tornadoo action at that time
Well, during that period a massive ridge will be centered over the Central Plains. Any major activity will be located on the fringes of the ridge (aka the Northern Plains).
Given the lead time, the ridge could adjust in phase/amplitude so check back later.

Thanks Ace I will be flying into Denver and traveling all over with tempest tours

So cool I have that on my bucket list, not sure if I would be scared or excited or both lol

by **jmanley32** Fri Jun 22, 2018 4:09 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Looks like a heat wave is approaching 4th of July week/weekend.

Fantastic.

Sounds like I will be staying inside. So glad my job lets me dress in shorts and short sleeves, being a teacher has its perks, especially with the little ones I work with they want us to be comfortable. They cannot complain about what I wear, I am nearly the only male in the entire school and what some of the women wear......well lets just say wow (some good some not) LOL, sorry if this offended anyone.

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Jun 22, 2018 7:22 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:
Quietace wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:I have a serious question for anybody on here that could help me out I'm going on a tornado chasing tour July 7th through the 12th in the planes does anybody know what that will be like will be lots of tornadoes at that time or will conditions be good for tornadoo action at that time
Well, during that period a massive ridge will be centered over the Central Plains. Any major activity will be located on the fringes of the ridge (aka the Northern Plains).
Given the lead time, the ridge could adjust in phase/amplitude so check back later.

Thanks Ace I will be flying into Denver and traveling all over with tempest tours
So cool I have that on my bucket list, not sure if I would be scared or excited or both lol

I'm excited but at the same time I'm Definetly nervous. I've been following them they have been getting great footage

by **Joe Snow** Sat Jun 23, 2018 1:07 am

jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Looks like a heat wave is approaching 4th of July week/weekend.

Fantastic.
Sounds like I will be staying inside. So glad my job lets me dress in shorts and short sleeves, being a teacher has its perks, especially with the little ones I work with they want us to be comfortable. They cannot complain about what I wear, I am nearly the only male in the entire school and what some of the women wear......well lets just say wow (some good some not) LOL, sorry if this offended anyone.

JMan I work in NYC the Hot days sure do make things interesting in outfits that people wear.

I am just checking looks like July will be quite as far as the tropics..........

Enjoy summer everyone.

by **sroc4** Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:42 am

Skins. That’s awesome! Take pics and video and be sure to post in here if possible. Jman. Glad to hear things are going well. Most of us are checking in and out for stretches with the weather as boring as it is.

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Jun 23, 2018 8:29 am

sroc4 wrote:Skins. That’s awesome! Take pics and video and be sure to post in here if possible. Jman. Glad to hear things are going well. Most of us are checking in and out for stretches with the weather as boring as it is.

Will do

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jun 25, 2018 8:01 am

Yea skins please take pics.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jun 25, 2018 8:03 am

Looks like we'll see rain later in the day Wednesday into Thursday morning. By Friday we heat up into the 90's - the first day of the heat wave.

GFS forecasting 100's on Monday

June 2018 Obs & Discussions - Page 3 Gfs_T2m_neus_31

June 2018 Obs & Discussions - Page 3 Gfs_T2m_neus_31

by **Sanchize06** Mon Jun 25, 2018 8:22 am

0z GFS heat index's for Sun, Mon, Tues

June 2018 Obs & Discussions - Page 3 Sfctapp.us_ne

by **weatherwatchermom** Mon Jun 25, 2018 12:41 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:I have a serious question for anybody on here that could help me out I'm going on a tornado chasing tour July 7th through the 12th in the planes does anybody know what that will be like will be lots of tornadoes at that time or will conditions be good for tornadoo action at that time

Wow have a great trip! Be safe...want to see lots of pictures and videos!!

by **weatherwatchermom** Mon Jun 25, 2018 12:43 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:0z GFS heat index's for Sun, Mon, Tues

this is payback for having such beautiful weather on our boat trip last year....we leave Saturday for 3 weeks....I don't care what my husband says...being on the water is not going to be cool enough for me... Sad

(we do have ac...but I rather be hibernating in my own house)

by **frank 638** Thu Jun 28, 2018 4:35 am

Getting pounded at the bus stop with heavy rain and lighting

by **rb924119** Thu Jun 28, 2018 5:29 am

As promised later last week, please visit the link below for the latest video update! It ran long on me again, but it's something that I'm actively trying to work on. It's just tough for me because I want to explain the principles behind the reasoning, and actually get you to be able to understand it, instead of just throwing it out there hoping something sticks. Anyway, as you all become more familiar with some of the recurring themes and concepts, it will ultimately become easier for me to make shorter videos, and easier for you to understand things without explanation. In any event, I hope you enjoy it!!

Main takeaways for those of you in a rush, or who don't want to listen to me talk weather for 20 minutes:
1. After today (Wednesday, June 28th), heat (above-average temperature regime) becomes the dominant theme through ~Day 10 (July 7th-9th/10th)
2. July 4th holiday is looking largely quiet weather-wise, and should support conducive conditions for all festivities
3. I think a severe weather threat looms for our region between ~July 7th-9th/10th, as the pattern reconfigures and the mean ridge axis shifts westward from an elongated center across most of the country to a more concentrated circulation over the West with relative mean troughing returning to the East thereafter
4. Watching the tropics beyond Day 5 (middle of next week and onward) for what (I think) will be development offshore of the U.S. East Coast, that is then drawn westward beneath the large-scale ridge centered over North America. All interests along the coast should be mindful, but this system, if it does develop, would have two options (in my opinion); either 1) continue westward into the central U.S. East Coast if strong enough, or 2) escape along a stationary boundary well offshore as it decays. At this time, I favor option 1, though intensity and even development are significant unknowns. That thinking is based on my analysis and not model guidance, per se'.

Details are in the following link!!

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1xxnXBaPdPGJnbOhcNrk8fkUTZZvGshLR

by **1190ftalt** Thu Jun 28, 2018 3:55 pm

Storm over Teterbiro airport now thunder and lightning about to hit ft Lee! Good one coming ! June 2018 Obs & Discussions - Page 3 Ac897410

by **frank 638** Fri Jun 29, 2018 2:18 pm

I hate the heat esp working in it and to make it worse all of next week it's going to be hot as hell .

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Jun 29, 2018 3:40 pm

Been awhile since we've had one of these bad boys!

June 2018 Obs & Discussions - Page 3 596baa10

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