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2018 Hurricane Season

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2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 18 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by sroc4 on Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:26 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Scott, there is no question your points outlined above have merit, and can easily be used to substantiate the rapid strengthening. Much of them we had both acknowledged in discussion of one of your previous posts as Michael began strengthening. However, my hypothesis is based on the following train of thought: These systems are heat engines, which derive their energy from the ocean surface. Even if your engine is running perfectly, you have the proper fuel (warm water), if the injectors (lower-level convergence) aren’t working properly, what happens to your finely tuned engine? It won’t run properly, right? As you try to increase your RPM, the engine will sputter as it’s being starved for fuel (in this case, the fuel would be the feedback from W.I.S.H.E. processes. That’s how I was looking at this system, and I now have something to test next season Smile but there is no question that the points you outlined above could easily be why my thoughts were blown to smithereens haha

Fantastic analogy Ray. And in all likely hood if given a little more time the engine would have started to fail and the engines horsepower output would have began to drop off because of it. But as they say timing is everything. With Sandy the timing of the incoming trough relative to where Sandy was combined with the perfect block in place led to its perfect scenario. Same likely applies here. Good stuff

"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)

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2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 18 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by mwilli5783 on Mon Oct 15, 2018 1:20 pm

looking in the carribbean this am and there is showers/thunderstorms forming according to the nhc,could develop into a depression by tuesday


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