2018 Hurricane Season

Hello all, since I had a little free time figure I would start a thread since at least a few of us have interest in the tropics. We currently have TD2 in between the Cabo Verde Islands and Leewards.  We also had a area to watch south of Bermuda but looks to recurve with a front, probably the one frank is talking about in his scroll.  July will probably be pretty quiet but I am expecting it will get busier in Aug-Oct. as it usually does, how active remains to be seen.  So far a normal to slightly above normal season has been predicted.

You beat me to it Jman.  TD 2 looks very healthy with both LLC and mid levels centers seemingly lining up nicely.  Do not be surprised to see this end up a named storm soon.  Currently shear is favorable, and  there is an almost optimally positioned anticyclone over top leading to good outflow.  As a result you can see good rotation and a burst of convection on Sat imagery around the center of circulation. That said it does have alot of dry air to contend with to the north and some out ahead of it. As it strengthens it will likely draw some of that into the circulation limiting it as to how rapidly it can intensify.

And Jman you are absolutely correct in that any development off the EC will re-curve with the approaching front.

Welcome Tropical Storm Beryl

Yep we have Beryl, intensifying quickly and NHC has it as a hurricane by 2am Sat which is late tomorrow night.

This storm will not exist by early next week.

jmanley32 wrote:Hello all, since I had a little free time figure I would start a thread since at least a few of us have interest in the tropics. We currently have TD2 in between the Cabo Verde Islands and Leewards.  We also had a area to watch south of Bermuda but looks to recurve with a front, probably the one frank is talking about in his scroll.  July will probably be pretty quiet but I am expecting it will get busier in Aug-Oct. as it usually does, how active remains to be seen.  So far a normal to slightly above normal season has been predicted.

Also, I would actually lean below normal in terms of ACE and named storms this year.

96L should become a TD today.

A prospective "Chris" is looking increasingly interesting

Yep td 3 is forecast to be Chris and become a hurricane as it moves ne after meandering around east of obx. I don't see how this could miss its exit ots but I guess odder things have happened we are actually in the 5% area for ts winds lol. Ace looked like beryl will b with us according to nhc.

We have TS Chris going to miss the area likely but supposed become a hurricane and obx has 50 to 60% chance ts force winds even cape cod to Rhode island has 20 to 30% chance. But I'm pretty sure this will follow their projected track. Since that front already went through what's the driving force for ne track?

jmanley32 wrote:We have TS Chris going to miss the area likely but supposed become a hurricane and obx has 50 to 60% chance ts force winds even cape cod to Rhode island has 20 to 30% chance. But I'm pretty sure this will follow their projected track. Since that front already went through what's the driving force for ne track?

Jon.  The reason "Chris" will not impact the coast, with the exception of maybe a few outer bands of rain over or near OBX, can be seen quite clear in the water vapor imagery.  You can see there is an upper level low spinning to Chris' NE.  This is tugging on Chris enough to keep it from moving west.  This mechanism is very reminiscent of why hurricane Joaquin back in 2015 never made it to the EC.  There is a nice discussion on it in the weather education thread if your interested.(https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t585-a-discussion-on-the-track-of-major-hurricane-joaquin-oct-2nd-2015)   
In the Sat loop you can also see in the top left corner the leading edge of the next trough/frontal boundary. As it approaches the EC it will capture Chris which is what will whisk Chris quickly away over the next few days.  https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/GOES16_sector_band.php?sector=eus&band=08&length=24

Although it has no consequence to us, Japan is in the path of the Pacific's version of Maria. As usual, the media is hyping it up as "the most powerful storm on earth." Here's a link:

http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/the-most-powerful-storm-on-earth-is-bearing-down-on-japan/ar-AAzNKHn?ocid=ientp

Chris is still an impressive looking TS looks like a hurricane already and going by climatology and the number of hurricanes by July 10th a rarity. If Beryl regenerates in the next few days and some intensity forecasts take it back to hurricane intensity that would be really rare to have two within a week of each other (well actually thats already happened as Beryl was already a hurricane.  If this is any sign of the rest of the season I would say it will be an active one (or just a early season with not much activity during peak, which is uncommon), whether theres any threats is obviously a question but more often then not these recurves happen. I think its to oearly to say but Beryl will prolly follow suit however some sgetti models show a loop into FL with whatever is there.

GreyBeard wrote:Although it has no consequence to us, Japan is in the path of the Pacific's version of Maria. As usual, the media is hyping it up as "the most powerful storm on earth." Here's a link:

http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/the-most-powerful-storm-on-earth-is-bearing-down-on-japan/ar-AAzNKHn?ocid=ientp

Right....no storm ever has been so bad umm Houston we have a problem?!

jmanley32 wrote:Chris is still an impressive looking TS looks like a hurricane already and going by climatology and the number of hurricanes by July 10th a rarity. If Beryl regenerates in the next few days and some intensity forecasts take it back to hurricane intensity that would be really rare to have two within a week of each other (well actually thats already happened as Beryl was already a hurricane.  If this is any sign of the rest of the season I would say it will be an active one (or just a early season with not much activity during peak, which is uncommon), whether theres any threats is obviously a question but more often then not these recurves happen.  I think its to oearly to say but Beryl will prolly follow suit however some sgetti models show a loop into FL with whatever is there.

I saw the stats, not convinced.

Quietace wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Chris is still an impressive looking TS looks like a hurricane already and going by climatology and the number of hurricanes by July 10th a rarity. If Beryl regenerates in the next few days and some intensity forecasts take it back to hurricane intensity that would be really rare to have two within a week of each other (well actually thats already happened as Beryl was already a hurricane.  If this is any sign of the rest of the season I would say it will be an active one (or just a early season with not much activity during peak, which is uncommon), whether theres any threats is obviously a question but more often then not these recurves happen.  I think its to oearly to say but Beryl will prolly follow suit however some sgetti models show a loop into FL with whatever is there.

I saw the stats, not convinced.

What’s stats Ryan?

sroc4 wrote:

Quietace wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Chris is still an impressive looking TS looks like a hurricane already and going by climatology and the number of hurricanes by July 10th a rarity. If Beryl regenerates in the next few days and some intensity forecasts take it back to hurricane intensity that would be really rare to have two within a week of each other (well actually thats already happened as Beryl was already a hurricane.  If this is any sign of the rest of the season I would say it will be an active one (or just a early season with not much activity during peak, which is uncommon), whether theres any threats is obviously a question but more often then not these recurves happen.  I think its to oearly to say but Beryl will prolly follow suit however some sgetti models show a loop into FL with whatever is there.

I saw the stats, not convinced.

What’s stats Ryan?

Per a twitter disco-> "Chris now has max winds of 70 mph & is forecast to reach hurricane strength tonight or tomorrow. The Atlantic has had 2+ hurricanes by July 10 three times in satellite era (since 1966): 1966, 1968 & 2005. 2005 was super-active season, 1966 was active, and 1968 was very quiet" -Philip Klotzbach
A debate has ensued whether or not this suggests the season will be above normal. Given the anomalously cool SSTs in the MDR, as well as the active SAL, I am in the quieter camp. AEW's wont be forming, and if they do, it wont be for long aka Beryl. Carr/GOM/WATL will be main players.

Quietace wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

Quietace wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Chris is still an impressive looking TS looks like a hurricane already and going by climatology and the number of hurricanes by July 10th a rarity. If Beryl regenerates in the next few days and some intensity forecasts take it back to hurricane intensity that would be really rare to have two within a week of each other (well actually thats already happened as Beryl was already a hurricane.  If this is any sign of the rest of the season I would say it will be an active one (or just a early season with not much activity during peak, which is uncommon), whether theres any threats is obviously a question but more often then not these recurves happen.  I think its to oearly to say but Beryl will prolly follow suit however some sgetti models show a loop into FL with whatever is there.

I saw the stats, not convinced.

What’s stats Ryan?

Per a twitter disco-> "Chris now has max winds of 70 mph & is forecast to reach hurricane strength tonight or tomorrow. The Atlantic has had 2+ hurricanes by July 10 three times in satellite era (since 1966): 1966, 1968 & 2005. 2005 was super-active season, 1966 was active, and 1968 was very quiet" -Philip Klotzbach
A debate has ensued whether or not this suggests the season will be above normal. Given the anomalously cool SSTs in the MDR, as well as the active SAL, I am in the quieter camp. AEW's wont be forming, and if they do, it wont be for long aka Beryl. Carr/GOM/WATL will be main players.

This also adds into the disco on what defines a AN season....Named storms or ACE? We could see many named storms, but well BN ACE...

The trio Ace will.make things interesting as we move forward. I'm close storms like Chris no long trackers I'm with the MDR like a fridge for these puppies.

Looks like we may have st at very least to watch by late week which looks to come I to the area. Being where it is supposed to flare up don't be surprised to see some sort of named storm develop fast. Always seems b the put come in that area. Otherwise as in the scroll going to be a ton of rain sat night sun mon timeframe.

I am going to discuss the potential tropical moisture or as models are showing possible system here since it is at least related to tropics. Euro has a 1005mb closed off system at the surface anyways but I can't see what it does as I can only see 24 hr increments anyone have the images after the system emerges as a 1005mb low? Does it deepen anymore and where does it go?

Its blank skins