Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

[Frank_Wx]

Fantastic posts by Al and Scott. I agree with a lot of what was said.

The Stratosphere warming is a huge deal. If we indeed see a full on sudden stratospheric warming event, and the Tropospheric PV is displaced to southern Canada prompting a -AO, then December could potentially be our stormiest month of the winter. But that would mean January could end up being a pretty dramatic thaw, but that's too early of a presumption to make. Right now, focus should be on November and December and so far I like what I see from Thanksgiving through all of December.

An east-based -NAO coupled with a -EPO in mid-November could set the stage for cold and snow for our area the week of the 18th.

GEFS



EPS



NAO blocks are difficult to come by and are often over-played on models in the long range. But with how the MJO is playing out and the warming taking place in the mid-latitudes of the Strat it has merit.

[algae888]

Nice Cold Shot coming in next weekend. Everything seems to be progressing very nicely. Especially in the pac. A lot of ridging out west. Also Central and Eastern Canada snowpack is well above normal laying the foundation for cold shots to come into our area as we head towards winter

[algae888]

If today's 12z Euro is to be believed the zero Celsius 850 line makes it into Central Florida at the end of The Run that's impressive for mid-november

[amugs]

This next cold shot though it won't last forever about (10 day) if any indication of what winter cold will be like holy mommaluke we are going to have bout with very cold air.
Courtesy of 33&rain



EPS for the possible snow that may correspond to this arctic air

[algae888]

Yes mugs eps agree with op. The EPS mean snowfall for the next 10 days is one to three in area-wide. A few big hitters in there as we well. have an active Southern stream with this artic air just need the timing to be right as climo is really against us at this time of year

[amugs]

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 17 days
2018 total: 183 days (60%) = seismic activity and down the road weather affects - HL blocking, more cloudy days etc.
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)
Updated 04 Nov 2018

[amugs]

Yes mugs eps agree with op. The EPS mean snowfall for the next 10 days is one to three in area-wide. A few big hitters in there as we well. have an active Southern stream with this artic air just need the timing to be right as climo is really against us at this time of year

Oh yes along the coastal plain issues but inland not as big

[dkodgis]

Me, I am just counting on shorter days, and a -AO to bring lower air pressure because that greenlights stronger cold air getting here and snow. I am nobody's forecaster but a -AO makes my socks pull up.

[algae888]

two legit storm threats and I mean snow threats one around the ninth which favors inland areas the other between the 12th and 15th. an anomalously cold airmass will be entering the eastern U.S. this weekend some 10-15* below normal temps. active southern branch interacting with this cold snap and bingo we snow in November. we shall see.

[algae888]

[amugs]

HOT OFF THE PRESSES PEEPS = EURO SEASONAL SHOWING A BANG BANG WINTER FOR US INCOMING!!
FROM THE BELL

SST - POSITIVE PDO, AMO PLUS MODOKI TYPE NINO


MEAN MOMMA MIA BRING ME THIS


DECEMBER TO REMEMBER ??? HIS SAYS POSSIBLY


JANUARY IS FINE - BACKS OFF BUT FINE


FEBRUARY ROCKS


1963 DECEMBER INCOMING? THIS WOULD BE TREMENDOUS!!!

[docstox12]

Mugsy, love that Dec 1963 map.We had 8 or 9 inches of snow in Fort Lee the day before Christmas Eve and the big snowstorm in February 1964.Hope this analog proves out for this season.I remember that as a cold winter.

[amugs]

Mugsy, love that Dec 1963 map.We had 8 or 9 inches of snow in Fort Lee the day before Christmas Eve and the big snowstorm in February 1964.Hope this analog proves out for this season.I remember that as a cold winter.

Me too - lots of good signs so far.

[amugs]

How the hell does the SST jump like this in these  deep waters - Godzilla take a leak here?? It rsoe 1* C in a week's time




1.2 drop you biag!!





This i a nice look to my amatuer eye - I love teh colder waters west of Aussie land and teh warmer near the dateline to about 150- this will promote that Rossby wave to develop in sector 8, 1,2 phases of this region. Also that orangey blob in the GOA (Gulf of Alaska) REMINISCENT OF 13-14, 14-15



SOLAR COOPERATING bigly TOO!!

BOOOYAHHHH

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 18 days
2018 total: 184 days (60%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)

[docstox12]

Mugsy...Godzilla taking a leak! HILARIOUS!

[amugs]

@ Doc - best analogy I could come up with - Franks Godzilla !!
This from a pro met Webberweather - GREAT SIGN!!

The westerly QBO has descended below 30 mb but the easterly regime remains stedfast in the lower stratosphere. As mentioned in an earlier post here, we're in the "goldilocks zone" so to speak for a sudden stratospheric warming event this year in QBO phase space, with the QBO transitioning from easterly to westerly. It should make sense to some why SSWEs are most favored during the easterly to westerly hand-off because this usually means the descending easterlies are closest to the tropical tropopause, providing the largest impact to shear and static stability there, implicating tropical convection and ultimately leading to the most pronounced acceleration of the Brewer Dobson Circulation that leads to the most advanced concomitant warming of the polar stratosphere. The fact we're encroaching on solar minimum and have an El Nino to enhance the standing planetary waves in the western hemisphere and Pacific helps our case for a SSWE this year

[amugs]

Euro and GFS are showing another coastal storm midweek - this one cold as AL and I and Scott have said above could bring teh first snowfall to the burbs on NYC like 25 - 35 miles N&W and flakes flying down to teh coastal plain if we can get a cleaner phase and allow the low in the Great lakes to slow up or weaken and not peel back the cold layers at the mid levels. For eye candy only from tweeter GEFS indies

[amugs]

After this cold  outbreak that will make people shiver in their shoes for this time of year we look to moderate for about a 10 day period after the 20th - there is an impressive MJO wave in the Indian Ocean that as it moves east will propagate the MJO seemingly into warmer phases as Ventrice pointed to. BUT have no fear Old Man winter will be back and with a vengence - you are bottling up the beast in the HIgh Arctic and once that ALeutian Trough kicks in and it spikes a ridge in the West Coast all hands on deck for we begin to rock and roll.
Could be a December to remember peeps.
It may not start out that way but by the early teens we should see  that evolving back to a gripping winter pattern. Heck it could change earlier but not much later from all indicies I am seeing.

1.2 is listening to me BIGLY! MODOKI NINO shaping up



3.4 and 4 hold steady




From 33&rain showing the Kelvin Wave



You cans ee the deep blue is teh wave
Now this will be good as it will enhance the ability for a SSW event as being forecasted for a disruption in Mid Dec of the Polar Vortex.
The EAMT and Pac Jet Extension will aid in this as well so we'll take a 10 -12 day moderation and then allow this heat to jet set poleward and allow the aiding of a SSW as I see it.
The BOM MJO forecast is based on this but we'll see



EURO Kills it before we get to the warmer phases


SOLAR stays NILL - 19 in a row
Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 19 days
2018 total: 185 days (60%)

Okay so it will get cold this weekend and then the bottom falls out next week.

[sroc4]

MJO when propagating with amplitude has been a dominant driver so far this fall, and looks to cont.  Given the SSTA configuration along the entire Pac equatorial region, the MJO gaining amplitude and propagation primarily through phases 8-1-2 then back towards the center will likely be a common theme going forward as this trend has already started and looks to continue with this next wave pulse..... 


….It looks like we are back into a new wave propagation with a similar pattern; which given the SSTA configuration should cont well into the winter.  Below are the current MJO forecasts for the next two weeks.  Both the Eruo and GEFS have a forecast and a "corrected" forecast.  I will post the "corrected" forecast as the second image.  Notice the GEFS forecast takes the MJO well into phases 3-4 towards 5 whereas the corrected forecast does not.  I fully expect the SSTA configuration to prevent this wave from entering phases 3-5 with any amplitude.  






…...As Mugsy posted above I expect modeling to go towards a cooler soln overall as we head into the second week of Nov with some warmth, relative to avgs, ahead of phase 2.  BUT I don't think we torch by any stretch of the imagination.

   

Lets revisit this convo.  Here are just the corrected MJO forecasts from prev vs today.  As you can see we are correcting with less amplitude into the Phases 3-5 as expected.  





GEFS





EURO




And if you look at the direction the end of the forecast is headed you'll notice back towards 8.  

Mugs it will be interesting to see if that week 2 200mb VP map you posted from the Ventrice site holds up.  If you compare it to the latest GFS 200mb VP forecast it has a large area of subsidence/convergence over the same region the Ventrice maps has divergence by Nov 21st





Just like in prev years when weve seen a cold spell show up in the LR only to see it evolve into not nearly as cold as it looked I can see how this "warm spell" or period of moderation everyone is talking about after the cold shot next weekend into next week will end up not nearly as warm if not cool when we get closer.  Well see.

[mwilli5783]

yesterday marks 2 years on this site.learned so much in here..from hecs,megagozilla,godzilla,ECS..etc and 2 think it all started with a major snowstorm in 2016..looked 4 ward now to this winter...bring it on...

[frank 638]

Lee Goldberg has mentioned next wed and Thurs we may not get out of the 30s for the highs even to the coast and this Friday night Northwest of the city they might see a rain and snow mix

[amugs]

Scott,
I concur on the moderation period and the next few days of these charts will help tell, one thing is for sure the cold waves incoming are going to be very cold for this time of year. 
I hope the Euro MJO forecast comes to fruition as it kills the wave in the COD and then remedies it in phase 8. That seems to be the "pattern" as we move forward.
I have read the EAMT is going to pump the PAC JET extension and bring a flat zonal flow. This doesn't scream torch but more normalish air and hopefully the WAR doesnt flex it's nuscle. Temp in the NA region and off the coast have cooled considerably so we shall see.
Great discussion and maps here peeps.
Tell Lee Goldberg whom I like that we were in this a few days ago chappy, LOL!!

[amugs]

The GFS is a rain to back end scenery for the burbs and maybe wet flakes for the coast. Interior snowstorm yes. 
 On my phone so when I get to my computer I'll upload maps.

[amugs]

Sloop at that cold air building up North WAITING to unleash it fury on us.

[amugs]

CMC BOOYSAHHH BABY!

[algae888]

Yes mugs you can add the new version of the GFS to the mix that gives us snow next week the German model has a similar track also but is warm the euro look a little wacky with two separate lows unlike its ensemble while warm for our area it's east of where it was yesterday early winter season tracking or should I say late fall tracking

[algae888]

The new runs of today's Global models specifically the CMC and GF s continue to show snow for parts of our area Northwest New Jersey lower Hudson Valley and most of Connecticut. The GFS has gotten colder while the CMC has gotten warmer and move those snow totals from last nights run much further north. Looking at the upper-level pattern it seems to me that the southern stream vort is too quick and is not captured by the strengthening trough early enough. Said trough also goes negative too late to really impact our area significantly with snow. Also the high-pressure placement is not good as it moves East off our Coast rather than being north of us somewhere in Quebec or northern Maine. Climo is really against us so we need a really good setup for it to snow especially the coastal plain but Inland areas this looks like a legit threat for some snow

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