Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

[frank 638]

I would love to have a white Christmas even with 4 inches of snow I would be happy with that last time we had a white Xmas was on 98 and 02

[Guest]

Scott. I AM NOT CALLING ANYONE OUT. You guys do a great job and that’s why I’m here. I’m just frustrated and saying this guy Sutherland’s forecast was a bunch of nospeak. It should happen but didn’t because weather is unpredictable blah blah blah. Whatever Mother Nature wants to do she’ll do. We are just guessing.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

A long way off, but nice to see something white by Christmas Eve.

It has to at least cover the entire lawn, 2.5 inches or so to do that, to make it officially a white Christmas in my book. This looks like it just might do the trick, but barely.

[Guest]

THATS my official rule too CP. must cover the entire lawn. Which is why I cut mine 1 3/4” late November every year. Plus it lets the wind blow any leaves onto my neighbors property and not mine

[Dunnzoo]

"This was dead on balls accurate" My favorite movie. And yes, Scott, you have been quite clear in your posts what to expect. Thanks for all the time you have put in to look at this challenging month of forecasting. I hate transition months. Give we summer May through October and then bring on winter!

[sroc4]

Scott. I AM NOT CALLING ANYONE OUT. You guys do a great job and that’s why I’m here. I’m just frustrated and saying this guy Sutherland’s forecast was a bunch of nospeak. It should happen but didn’t because weather is unpredictable blah blah blah. Whatever Mother Nature wants to do she’ll do. We are just guessing.

First off we are more than just guessing. We are educated guessing at worst. And with each success and failure year after year the forecasting ability to foresee the future has improved dramatically and the educated guessing has gotten better and better. A perfect science; however, it is not nor will it ever be. There is always going to be successes and failures.

The personal issue I have with your prev comment is that you make Dec sound like a failure. Why? Pretty much everything thus far has been almost exactly as it was predicted. Maybe not in your back yard or mine, but overall it has. Yes there have been underestimations to the MJO strength and timing, and yes there was a snow storm that missed to the south that I personally thought had a really good chance to hit us, but these are near misses in the grand scheme of things. This was like aiming for a bulls eye and hitting the outer green ring instead of the center double bull. With 14 days left in the month we still have a few darts to throw and weve been dialing things in. An above avg month for Dec snowfall is still well withing the realm of possibility but keep in mind it might not happen. For some reason people have already jumped head first off the bridge regarding the month AND winter as a whole. WTF. Let it play out instead of crying over every little missed opportunity. Again the time frame we are in right now was well foreseen.

[Guest]

This will be my last post on the matter. I don’t want to upset anyone.
Scott I don’t want to go back and forth. Again you guys are great. My issue is all the cold and zero moisture. I count 15 out of 17 days below normal temps and 3 big east coast storms that brought us Zero snow. The 4th and 5th. Suppressed OTS. The big one down south suppressed again. Then this past storm which was all liquid again even areas far n and w. That’s 0/3 with 88.2% of the month so far being below normal, yet 100% of the storms being liquid or missing

THAT TO ME WITH THE OPTIMISM POSTED ON THIS BOARD BY MANY FORECASTERS FOR DECEMBER IS INCREDIBLY FRUSTRATING. The weather is no ones fault (and if you need to hear it than yes you have been pretty spot on).  And no I am not throwing in the towel

[skinsfan1177]

Euro weeklies look fantastic

[sroc4]

[skinsfan1177]

Strong signal bc of a storm on new years eve

[dkodgis]

I too like just enough snow to cover the lawn, and little enough to blow off the deck and driveway with the blower. Yes, it is true. I use my backpack blower to blow off the powder. Works great.

[Frank_Wx]

Trust the process...

Stratospheric warming is very powerful. We're looking at a pretty significant pattern change to start 2019.

[Snow88]

SSW Event

Earthlight

"This is about a consistent of a signal as you will see for major, near record-breaking warmth at 10hPa from 60-90N ."


Isotherm

"This SSW event appears to be a virtual lock, and it's been awhile since I've been positive about a winter; I'm more interested about prospects than I've been in 4+ years, going forward for this winter"

[dkodgis]

Polar vortex may be on thr horizon.

https://www.foxnews.com/weather/polar-vortex-may-be-on-the-horizon-scientists-warn.amp

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

This will be my last post on the matter. I don’t want to upset anyone.
Scott I don’t want to go back and forth. Again you guys are great. My issue is all the cold and zero moisture. I count 15 out of 17 days below normal temps and 3 big east coast storms that brought us Zero snow. The 4th and 5th. Suppressed OTS. The big one down south suppressed again. Then this past storm which was all liquid again even areas far n and w. That’s 0/3 with 88.2% of the month so far being below normal, yet 100% of the storms being liquid or missing

THAT TO ME WITH THE OPTIMISM POSTED ON THIS BOARD BY MANY FORECASTERS FOR DECEMBER IS INCREDIBLY FRUSTRATING. The weather is no ones fault (and if you need to hear it than yes you have been pretty spot on).  And no I am not throwing in the towel

Certainly I would never accuse you of hyperbole when discussing weather, but lets just look at facts for a moment.

This Decembers temperatures have NOT been way below normal, as a a matter of fact going into today they are right about at normal for the month. In Central Park December is -0.7 for the month. With 17 days now accounted for, 6 days have been above normal and another three days only 1 degree below.

As far as snowfall, yes it's been frustrating since the nice mid November snow, but we are early in the game. I too prefer a front loaded winter vs a back loaded one, although I certainly wasn't complaining last year when the HV had over 50 inches of snow after March 1, but lets see what next week looks like.

Inch by inch anythings a cinch, All good things come to those who wait, patience is a virtue, and on and on and on.

Most of all I think you need a return visit to Weather World.

[amugs]

Peeps,

Lets take a breath here. We are one big family that is getting the holiday and snowless anx heating up.
The pattern back in later Nov looked very good for cold and snow chances adn I put out a bunch of dates that I thought with the forecaster pattern woudl produce. Didn't happen that way and my apologies if yuo felt like I hyped this up BUT the pattern was showing this. Who knew the MJO woudl be a strong wave and move into 4-6 stages when it was being forecasted to dye off in phase 3 and allow otehr variables to take affect?
The cold has pretty much verified and we've been more BN days that AN and each time we see a "torch" period is gets slashed down considerably. timewise and temperature wise oevrall.
Dec is a transition month and teh potential for storms were there as per theamountof rain we've had yes BUT going forward it looks very good and one thing thathas me intrigued is the SCAn Block that keeps showing up qand retrograding west. Also, the Siberian High and Mongolian/Tibetan Plateu have been anomalous as well with that when they retract so to speak which is occurring the PAC will react as well and positively affect our weather in the EPO region.
The Start warming has been a major player and this will cause havoc among model outputs as well but once we get this bad boy to elongate (my hope not a split person too much risk) then we shall snow dance!!
The last week of Dec can have two wintry precip possibilities starting with Xmas eve/day and then again teh last few days.
Remember 2014-15 as we torch Dec and then went on an unforgettable run from early Jan through March? Possible.

[amugs]

Here is a great post from a weather met student at PSU

Focus on the EPO/WPO and NAO regions. The ridging over Iceland is beginning to encroach into Greenland and the Davis Strait. In the EPO/WPO domain, a cutoff upper level high is beginning to form, which helps to pull some colder air in from Siberia. 
 
Both of these factors have led to a rather significant reduction of heights over the entire NE US. The ridging in the Great Plains and OH Valley has almost completely dissolved as a result of the high latitude blocking.
 
Modeling is starting to come around on the effects of the SSW, and I expect these trends to continue further as we approach Christmas. A cutter in that time period is certainly not a lock. 


This is what Isotherm  has been harpin on.
Consequently, white Xmas is looking up above the glass half full stage at this point. Enough to whiten the ground for many in our area says mr. Euro.

[Frank_Wx]

[SoulSingMG]

White Christmas on the 12z Euro

[skinsfan1177]

Merry Christmas per euro

[weatherwatchermom]

     

I know I should probably know what this map represents..but truthfully I don't it must be good though

[skinsfan1177]

Ensembles are honking at a big storm potential around new years.

[sroc4]

     

I know I should probably know what this map represents..but truthfully I don't  it must be good though

Momma.  This image is of the 10mb level of the stratosphere which is the equivalent of approx. 15-16miles or 85,000feet above sea level.  Just like when we show ridges and troughs at 500mb they exist at this level as well.  The first image below is right now.  Notice how the vortex is displaced on the wrong side of the globe.  In the second image Very simply stated the red area circled over the arctic indicates the stratospheric warming event taking place; the result of which has cause the stratospheric vortex to split into two lobes, one of which displaces over north America.  THIS IS GOOD.  The other important thing this warming event does is weakens the vortex.  The reason being is that it weakens the temp gradient.  Just like the jet streams down closer to earth the wind moves in large part due to the temp gradients between the lower latitudes and higher latitudes.  When the strat temps are cold there is a much larger temp difference between the air over the arctic vs the equator.  The result is much tighter gradient and and much stronger faster circulating vortex.  This acts like a noose trapping cold air in the higher latitudes.  When a sudden stratospheric warming event occurs, it effectively brings the temp gradient prev discussed closer which effectively weakens the movement of air slowing it down; weakens the noose if you will.  Now this is the first part.






So with a weakened noose lets examine the warming of the strat a little further.  This will be overly simplified but should be easy to understand.  Now Picture turning our view of the strat horizontally:  



We now have a weaker noose.   Now picture the arctic air and polar masses like a balloon sitting centered on the N pole.  Above the baloon is the stratosphere.  Ok so A massive warming just took place.  What happens to the air molecules at any level when they warm?  The air expands right?  As air warms the molecues get more excited and spread out; as they cool they condense and become more dense.  If you cant follow take an empty water bottole with a cap on it at room temp and put it in the freezer.  after a few hrs the bottle will appear to have collapsed on itself.  Then take it out and put it next to the heater.  After a few hrs here you will see it expand as the pressure builds.  Anyway back the the strat.  When a large area of air at the level of the strat warms like this the air will do the same thing, expand.  Since the strat is so high up in the atmosphere and almost "in space" the expanding air has an easier time expanding downward rather than up into space.  As it does so it pushes on the "balloon" of arctic and polar air.  Picture placing a small balloon on a globe in your house.  Now pretend your fist is the strat.  Now push your fist down slowly over the center of the balloon.  This represents the expanding stratospheric air pressing down on the tropspheric air(where we live).  What happens?  As you press down on the balloon the balloon spreads out and drifts southward into the mid lattitudes of your globe right?  This is essence, and very very simply stated,  is what happens when the strat warms.

The strat warms which loosens the grip on the cold air.  As it expands it presses down on the troposphere allowing the discharge of cold air masses south into the mid latitudes.  

Momma thatis essentiall what the image Frank posted is showing.  A serious strat warming that weakens and almost obliterates its overall structure, such that it splits into two smaller vorticies.  This WILL set us up very nicely for a long stretch in Jan should it verify. Yes that static image is 240hrs away but as I mentioned in prev posts what everyone is complaining about now is actually the precursor to what you see in that image.  The wheels have already been set in motion.  Here was the quote from the9th write up:   Ironically its the less than ideal/crappy next 10-14days that seems to be the precursor to such an event.  So like taking medicine we will have to swallow it reluctantly; however, knowing that after the course of medicine is finished healthier times lie ahead.

This IS happening.  This WILL set us up nicely as we head into 2019.  We STILL have a shot at a white Christmas.  I CONTINE to choose the OPTIMISTIC approach. SO WHAT that Dec sucked. Statistically it always sucks. Get over it

[Frank_Wx]

Thank you Scott

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

     

I know I should probably know what this map represents..but truthfully I don't  it must be good though

Momma.  This image is of the 10mb level of the stratosphere which is the equivalent of approx. 15-16miles or 85,000feet above sea level.  Just like when we show ridges and troughs at 500mb they exist at this level as well.  The first image below is right now.  Notice how the vortex is displaced on the wrong side of the globe.  In the second image Very simply stated the red area circled over the arctic indicates the stratospheric warming event taking place; the result of which has cause the stratospheric vortex to split into two lobes, one of which displaces over north America.  THIS IS GOOD.  The other important thing this warming event does is weakens the vortex.  The reason being is that it weakens the temp gradient.  Just like the jet streams down closer to earth the wind moves in large part due to the temp gradients between the lower latitudes and higher latitudes.  When the strat temps are cold there is a much larger temp difference between the air over the arctic vs the equator.  The result is much tighter gradient and and much stronger faster circulating vortex.  This acts like a noose trapping cold air in the higher latitudes.  When a sudden stratospheric warming event occurs, it effectively brings the temp gradient prev discussed closer which effectively weakens the movement of air slowing it down; weakens the noose if you will.  Now this is the first part.






So with a weakened noose lets examine the warming of the strat a little further.  This will be overly simplified but should be easy to understand.  Now Picture turning our view of the strat horizontally:  



We now have a weaker noose.   Now picture the arctic air and polar masses like a balloon sitting centered on the N pole.  Above the baloon is the stratosphere.  Ok so A massive warming just took place.  What happens to the air molecules at any level when they warm?  The air expands right?  As air warms the molecues get more excited and spread out; as they cool they condense and become more dense.  If you cant follow take an empty water bottole with a cap on it at room temp and put it in the freezer.  after a few hrs the bottle will appear to have collapsed on itself.  Then take it out and put it next to the heater.  After a few hrs here you will see it expand as the pressure builds.  Anyway back the the strat.  When a large area of air at the level of the strat warms like this the air will do the same thing, expand.  Since the strat is so high up in the atmosphere and almost "in space" the expanding air has an easier time expanding downward rather than up into space.  As it does so it pushes on the "balloon" of arctic and polar air.  Picture placing a small balloon on a globe in your house.  Now pretend your fist is the strat.  Now push your fist down slowly over the center of the balloon.  This represents the expanding stratospheric air pressing down on the tropspheric air(where we live).  What happens?  As you press down on the balloon the balloon spreads out and drifts southward into the mid lattitudes of your globe right?  This is essence, and very very simply stated,  is what happens when the strat warms.

The strat warms which loosens the grip on the cold air.  As it expands it presses down on the troposphere allowing the discharge of cold air masses south into the mid latitudes.  

Momma thatis essentiall what the image Frank posted is showing.  A serious strat warming that weakens and almost obliterates its overall structure, such that it splits into two smaller vorticies.  This WILL set us up very nicely for a long stretch in Jan should it verify. Yes that static image is 240hrs away but as I mentioned in prev posts what everyone is complaining about now is actually the precursor to what you see in that image.  The wheels have already been set in motion.  Here was the quote from the9th write up:   Ironically its the less than ideal/crappy next 10-14days that seems to be the precursor to such an event.  So like taking medicine we will have to swallow it reluctantly; however, knowing that after the course of medicine is finished healthier times lie ahead.

This IS happening.  This WILL set us up nicely as we head into 2019.  We STILL have a shot at a white Christmas.  I CONTINE to choose the OPTIMISTIC approach.  SO WHAT that Dec sucked.  Statistically it always sucks. Get over it

[X] Love

But statistically December, even in NYC, does not always suck. Maybe along the coast it's a different perspective.

[weatherwatchermom]

THANK YOU!! for taking the time to explain it all to me....I appreciate it! Great explanation

[SENJsnowman]

Ditto that Mom! Plus thanks to you also for actually asking what me and I’m sure several others were thinking!

And sroc thanks so much for your brilliant beak down and generosity in time from all of you really

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