Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

[rb924119]

Stick a fork in it.

HOLD YOUR FIRE!!!!!!! Lol it ain’t over yet.

[algae888]

The new GFS brings a foot-and-a-half to DC a foot to Philly 6 to 12 for the southern New Jersey and several inches here if you look at the UK still a lot of things to be ironed out as it's much slower and has the low off the North Carolina South Carolina border with energy from the northern stream coming in on the back side one other option is we missed the southern system to our South but then get a phase with the northern stream with leftover energy and a coastal comes up the coast still a lot to be determined here

[Grselig]

What we need now is a good Hanukah miracle. It happens.

[hyde345]

Stick a fork in it.

HOLD YOUR FIRE!!!!!!! Lol it ain’t over yet.

Reverse jinx.

[skinsfan1177]

It's far from a final solution ITS 6 DAYS AWAY

[amugs]

Folks we are 5 -6 days out so chillax.

The models are picking up on moving out the suppression junk over NE and now SE Canada faster which is a good trend. How far N this can gain latitude will be seen butt he trend N has been well modeled today so far. How far North it can get remains to be seen so WE TRACK!!!

One thing that is intriguing is this development of the confluence being weaker and kicking east faster. This time tomorrow the pieces of energy should be in better but still not great sampling grid areas which will help a bit in guidance. WV loop is what we need to use once it comes into range of this to see what is what.

[SnowForest]

Folks we are 5 -6 days out so chillax.

The models are picking up on moving out the suppression junk over NE and now SE Canada faster which is a good trend. How far N this can gain latitude will be seen butt he trend N has been well modeled today so far. How far North it can get remains to be seen so WE TRACK!!!

One thing that is intriguing is this development of the confluence being weaker and kicking east faster. This time tomorrow the pieces of energy should be in better but still not great sampling grid areas which will help a bit in guidance. WV loop is what we need to use once it comes into range of this to see what is what.

Hello, I had a question: From what I read in your post, there is a certain time when the pieces of energy come into better sampling areas. Where are these better sampling areas, and generally what is the time leading up to an event when the energies come into better sampling?
Thanks!

[bobjohnsonforthehall]

Hearing EPS ticked NW this run.

Still too many factors not well sampled so I'm not going to pay too close attention run to run for another 24 hours or so. Still nice to hear it ticked better even if it may not mean much at this point.

[algae888]

Hearing EPS ticked NW this run.

Still too many factors not well sampled so I'm not going to pay too close attention run to run for another 24 hours or so. Still nice to hear it ticked better even if it may not mean much at this point.

There are even a few rainstorms on the eps we are far from a final solution and it looks like December 10th and 11th so still 6 to 7 days out as the progression of this low has slowed all options are still on the table and I will say it again I find it hard to believe that North and South Carolina or going to receive 1 to 3 feet of snow from this

[amugs]

Folks we are 5 -6 days out so chillax.

The models are picking up on moving out the suppression junk over NE and now SE Canada faster which is a good trend. How far N this can gain latitude will be seen butt he trend N has been well modeled today so far. How far North it can get remains to be seen so WE TRACK!!!

One thing that is intriguing is this development of the confluence being weaker and kicking east faster. This time tomorrow the pieces of energy should be in better but still not great sampling grid areas which will help a bit in guidance. WV loop is what we need to use once it comes into range of this to see what is what.

Hello, I had a question: From what I read in your post, there is a certain time when the pieces of energy come into better sampling areas. Where are these better sampling areas, and generally what is the time leading up to an event when the energies come into better sampling?
Thanks!

Good questions - the time frame is looking at Wednesday night and even into Thursday. Lead time is usually 72 hours they have a good sampling of the energies since the northern vorts/ energy is in such a sparce ROAB sampling region. Then we see what esle is in store for JET STREAK, weaknesses etc.

Lots of time with this one. Just wish we had a good N EPO and PNA - then we'd be rocking the Kazba - EPO woudl send in the cold and the PNA would help drive the storm up the coast if in a favorable position.

[Frank_Wx]

The new GFS brings a foot-and-a-half to DC a foot to Philly 6 to 12 for the southern New Jersey and several inches here if you look at the UK still a lot of things to be ironed out as it's much slower and has the low off the North Carolina South Carolina border with energy from the northern stream coming in on the back side one other option is we missed the southern system to our South but then get a phase with the northern stream with leftover energy and a coastal comes up the coast still a lot to be determined here

The new GFS has snow into Virginia. Nothing north of there.

[skinsfan1177]

This storm keeps getting pushed back.

[algae888]

The new GFS brings a foot-and-a-half to DC a foot to Philly 6 to 12 for the southern New Jersey and several inches here if you look at the UK still a lot of things to be ironed out as it's much slower and has the low off the North Carolina South Carolina border with energy from the northern stream coming in on the back side one other option is we missed the southern system to our South but then get a phase with the northern stream with leftover energy and a coastal comes up the coast still a lot to be determined here

The new GFS has snow into Virginia. Nothing north of there.

Frank take a look again it has 16 in for DC 6 to 12 Southern New Jersey to Philly in a few inches here

[Frank_Wx]

The new GFS brings a foot-and-a-half to DC a foot to Philly 6 to 12 for the southern New Jersey and several inches here if you look at the UK still a lot of things to be ironed out as it's much slower and has the low off the North Carolina South Carolina border with energy from the northern stream coming in on the back side one other option is we missed the southern system to our South but then get a phase with the northern stream with leftover energy and a coastal comes up the coast still a lot to be determined here

The new GFS has snow into Virginia. Nothing north of there.

Frank take a look again it has 16 in for DC 6 to 12 Southern New Jersey to Philly in a few inches here

Here is the 12z GFS snow map valid for December 11th



Here is the 18z GFS for the same time frame

[rb924119]

The new GFS brings a foot-and-a-half to DC a foot to Philly 6 to 12 for the southern New Jersey and several inches here if you look at the UK still a lot of things to be ironed out as it's much slower and has the low off the North Carolina South Carolina border with energy from the northern stream coming in on the back side one other option is we missed the southern system to our South but then get a phase with the northern stream with leftover energy and a coastal comes up the coast still a lot to be determined here

The new GFS has snow into Virginia. Nothing north of there.

Frank take a look again it has 16 in for DC 6 to 12 Southern New Jersey to Philly in a few inches here

Here is the 12z GFS snow map valid for December 11th



Here is the 18z GFS for the same time frame

I think he means “new GFS” as in the FV3, Frank haha

[amugs]

HOLY CHRIPS - NW LEAN??
33&rain TY

[larryrock72]

According to 12z and 18z gfs on dec 11th ocean county nj is in the blue!!! Gonna get slammed!!! Lol!!!

[amugs]

Big shift in EPS peeps, let's see what the rest of the 0z and 6z suite does. SFC LP goes to OBX, probably from this look it can reach the delmarva latitude with the cofluence lifting out quicker. 
MJO phase 2 says the storm should come further North by 500mb maps of a phase 2 MJO. 
Well see & lots of time.

[skinsfan1177]

Big shift in EPS peeps, let's see what the rest of the 0z and 6z suite does. SFC LP goes to OBX, probably from this look it can reach the delmarva latitude with the cofluence lifting out quicker. 
MJO phase 2 says the storm should come further North by 500mb maps of a phase 2 MJO. 
Well see & lots of time.

I've been harping on that confluence for day over modeled

[jmanley32]

Guys I hate to break it to ya but that 32 degree line is way to far north and we will all see rain...psych AL LOL JK, I am aware by now that that means nothing, and if this happens it happens if it doesnt theres always next time. I am far to busy to be able to follow and stay up late nights anymore unless I know no work the next day (job needs to much of lightning reflexes and with no sleep I cannot be that functional LOL). So enjoy guys until its crunch time then maybe I will stay up, and I do want a storm especially during the week lol.

[jmanley32]

Big shift in EPS peeps, let's see what the rest of the 0z and 6z suite does. SFC LP goes to OBX, probably from this look it can reach the delmarva latitude with the cofluence lifting out quicker. 
MJO phase 2 says the storm should come further North by 500mb maps of a phase 2 MJO. 
Well see & lots of time.

I've been harping on that confluence for day over modeled

Do we really know this with any certainty even a sliver of it this far out I mean we are talking 180 hrs, I remember the days when I posted stuff that far out and you all laughed that was fantasyland, what happened now we get restless 1-2 weeks in advance? I am hoping it pushes north as much as the next guy, a early godzilla after a november record snowstorm will def make for a epic beginning to the season.

[Sanchize06]

Definitely some improvements on the 0z GFS, good signs

[SoulSingMG]

00z EURO came in further north and has a 988 mb storm sitting just SE off the Delmarva Monday night.

[skinsfan1177]

Another Northwest shift. Let's not forget this is a Monday storm now

[nutleyblizzard]

EPS is north of 00z EURO. 12 out of 50 members now have big hits in SNE.

[nutleyblizzard]

[amugs]

EPS Mean is clustered about 100 Miles S of the benchmark - we have plenty of time to correct this N as we just witnessed with the last 24hrs of teh 250 mile jump NW.

Again MJO phase 2 argues for a more N track that what we have - I 95 corridor storm.

The L's just off the top left of the green circle and a movement NNE would be magnificent if they then move NNE from there to just off Montauk!! Wishful, Hopeful and Praying!

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