Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

[nutleyblizzard]

[amugs]

EPS Mean is clustered about 100 Miles S of the benchmark - we have plenty of time to correct this N as we just witnessed with the last 24hrs of teh 250 mile jump NW.

Again MJO phase 2 argues for a more N track that what we have - I 95 corridor storm.

The L's just off the top left of the green circle and a movement NNE would be magnificent if they then move NNE from there to just off Montauk!! Wishful, Hopeful and Praying!

[jake732]

The more north the warmer so I don’t even know what I want anymore.

[sroc4]

Regarding the 9th-11th threat there is still much to sort out.  The I-95 is still in play here for "something".  Lets look at the differences between 5 key players on the field latest GFS vs Euro Op runs.  Both images are valid for 12z Dec 9th:  

Lets start by looking at each individual piece on the field beginning with 1.  Notice GFS is further east with it when compared with Euro.  This is important detail #1).

Jumping to number 4 notice the GFS is further S relative to Euro.  This is Important detail #2.  

Reason being is notice the confluence I have outlined on both models.  With number 1 further west and number 4 further N there is room for interactions with 2 to raise heights before our main energy(1) reaches the coast.  This is critically important in determining how far N the main surface low can track.  

Also take note that there are still differences with strength and position of pieces 3 and 5 as well between the two models.  These differences likely influence the timing, strength, and positions of 1, 2, and 4.  

As you can plainly see these images are only a mere 108 hrs out(4.5days).   Very subtle timing differences on the euro and the entire I-95 cooridor through RI to Red Sox Suck is in play for something.  GFS has had more run to run volitility to these 5 key pieces of energy than the euro plus this is the euro's wheel house if you will.  Even the euro has work to do and this still might not work out, but to reiterate there is still much to sort out before we can write anything off for our coverage area.      

WE TRACK!!

[amugs]

SROC great post and a life time of time (for storms)- crazy like the March storms and other classics - we'll be spent by Monday easily

From a Met on another board: Good read

ORH_wxman:



"The primary northern stream shortwave that phases on the euro doesn't come onshore near Juneau AK until 00z Friday.

The kicker behind it doesn't come onshore until 12z Saturday in the PAC NW.



The Arctic shortwave from the PV lobe that contributes to Quebec confluence is still over the central Arctic Ocean. It reaches Hudson Bay on Saturday...prob doesn't get decent sampling until it is near there since northern NW territories and the Canadian archipelago isn't exactly a poster child for a dense obs network...and satellite isn't going to be great there either with the extreme cold.

Bottom line is that we have a lot of northern stream and Arctic jet shortwaves that will matter to this system that are more prone to large changes than usual due to their position. So don't be surprised to see large changes on some model guidance between now and Saturday. It doesn't mean the changes will always be good for us, but obviously we will want to see changes for a hit here. "
He is a New Eglander.

[algae888]

this is from a met from another board who is from new england he feels they are still in the game for this one...



"The primary northern stream shortwave that phases on the euro doesn't come onshore near Juneau AK until 00z Friday.
The kicker behind it doesn't come onshore until 12z Saturday in the PAC NW.
The Arctic shortwave from the PV lobe that contributes to Quebec confluence is still over the central Arctic Ocean. It reaches Hudson Bay on Saturday...prob doesn't get decent sampling until it is near there since northern NW territories and the Canadian archipelago isn't exactly a poster child for a dense obs network...and satellite isn't going to be great there either with the extreme cold.
Bottom line is that we have a lot of northern stream and Arctic jet shortwaves that will matter to this system that are more prone to large changes than usual due to their position. So don't be surprised to see large changes on some model guidance between now and Saturday. It doesn't mean the changes will always be good for us, but obviously we will want to see changes for a hit here."

[algae888]

mugs funny we posted the same thing at the same time. anyway guidance has flip flopped the last several days however there is a north trend overall. do not expect to see steady changes in guidance one way or another until we are at and inside 72 hours.

[bobjohnsonforthehall]

SROC great post and  a life time of time (for storms)- crazy like the March storms and other classics - we'll be spent by Monday easily

From a Met on another board: Good read

ORH_wxman:



"The primary northern stream shortwave that phases on the euro doesn't come onshore near Juneau AK until 00z Friday.

The kicker behind it doesn't come onshore until 12z Saturday in the PAC NW.



The Arctic shortwave from the PV lobe that contributes to Quebec confluence is still over the central Arctic Ocean. It reaches Hudson Bay on Saturday...prob doesn't get decent sampling until it is near there since northern NW territories and the Canadian archipelago isn't exactly a poster child for a dense obs network...and satellite isn't going to be great there either with the extreme cold.

Bottom line is that we have a lot of northern stream and Arctic jet shortwaves that will matter to this system that are more prone to large changes than usual due to their position. So don't be surprised to see large changes on some model guidance between now and Saturday. It doesn't mean the changes will always be good for us, but obviously we will want to see changes for a hit here. "
He is a New Eglander.

I think this really is the key here. The sampling just isn't there yet for some very important pieces. It is certainly possible that models are "guessing" correctly regarding their strength, positioning, trajectory etc. But this setup has so many pieces that need to act in certain ways during very definite time frames that, if the models' "guesses" on the under sampled pieces are even a little bit off, it could cause dramatic swings (good or bad for us) in the projections.

[rb924119]

Just for sake of conversation, in looking at the 12z NAM in comparison to the latest ICON (12z) at H5, the NAM would appear to result in a similarly, if not further suppressed solution in my opinion. While the NAM is significantly weaker with the energy diving in from Hudson Bay, it has a noticeably more northerly component to flow between the southern stream system and the Hudson Bay energy, which would act to largely limit the storm’s ability to gain latitude. This is just my opinion, and I realize that extrapolation of a long-range NAM forecast is equivalent to playing with matches while pumping gas lol

[amugs]

SROC great post and  a life time of time (for storms)- crazy like the March storms and other classics - we'll be spent by Monday easily

From a Met on another board: Good read

ORH_wxman:



"The primary northern stream shortwave that phases on the euro doesn't come onshore near Juneau AK until 00z Friday.

The kicker behind it doesn't come onshore until 12z Saturday in the PAC NW.



The Arctic shortwave from the PV lobe that contributes to Quebec confluence is still over the central Arctic Ocean. It reaches Hudson Bay on Saturday...prob doesn't get decent sampling until it is near there since northern NW territories and the Canadian archipelago isn't exactly a poster child for a dense obs network...and satellite isn't going to be great there either with the extreme cold.

Bottom line is that we have a lot of northern stream and Arctic jet shortwaves that will matter to this system that are more prone to large changes than usual due to their position. So don't be surprised to see large changes on some model guidance between now and Saturday. It doesn't mean the changes will always be good for us, but obviously we will want to see changes for a hit here. "
He is a New Eglander.

I think this really is the key here. The sampling just isn't there yet for some very important pieces. It is certainly possible that models are "guessing" correctly regarding their strength, positioning, trajectory etc. But this setup has so many pieces that need to act in certain ways during very definite time frames that, if the models' "guesses" on the under sampled pieces are even a little bit off, it could cause dramatic swings (good or bad for us) in the projections.

Absolutely - such a complex setup with as Scott pointed out 5 moving parts.
@Al brilliant minds think alike LOL - and ORH is a very good and respected forecaster period. Like the ole EF Hutton commercial - when he speaks we listen!

[algae888]

old gfs made some minor improvements but still way south. cmc made a big jump north from ooz bullseye northern Va, dc and Maryland with over a foot. 6in line to philly and e few inches north central NJ. stj sw stronger on both but we need to get rid of those NS s/w rotating over eastern Canada and new England. its like one every 12 hours.

[algae888]

Those were awful runs by the Euro and UK today H5 on the euro is totally different than last night only good news if it can change so drastically in 12 hours maybe it can do so again on the next cycle

[nutleyblizzard]

Those were awful runs by the Euro and UK today H5 on the euro is totally different than last night only good news if it can change so drastically in 12 hours maybe it can do so again on the next cycle

Doesn't make any sense with the 00z EPS looked so promising.Might just be a burp run. We will know soon enough when the 12z EPS comes out shortly.

[nutleyblizzard]

Here's some good news folks. The latest EURO seasonal forecast came out and its a snow weenies dream. Much colder! The thaw in January is gone too. Plenty of storm chances to track. Fun times ahead!

[SoulSingMG]

Those were awful runs by the Euro and UK today H5 on the euro is totally different than last night only good news if it can change so drastically in 12 hours maybe it can do so again on the next cycle

Doesn't make any sense with the 00z EPS looked so promising.Might just be a burp run. We will know soon enough when the 12z EPS comes out shortly.

Crap run for sure, night & day from 00z (literally and metaphorically speaking) with the upper low not even closing off on that run. Remember tho, it’s one member of dozens so hopefully the EPS doesn’t deliver such heartbreak lol

[SoulSingMG]

k bye

[skinsfan1177]

I'm not giving up until the Saturday runs without any good sampling in northern stream

[SoulSingMG]

I'm not giving up until the Saturday runs without any good sampling in northern stream

Hmmm. Eric Fischer, solid MET outta Beantown, just said this re. the sampling argument. Thoughts?

[rb924119]

NO COMMENT. OHHH NOOOO IM NOT GOING THROUGH THIS AGAIN. NOPE.

[bobjohnsonforthehall]

I'm not giving up until the Saturday runs without any good sampling in northern stream

Hmmm. Eric Fischer, solid MET outta Beantown, just said this re. the sampling argument. Thoughts?

Have heard that satellite sampling in extremely cold regions can be very problematic.

[skinsfan1177]

I'm not giving up until the Saturday runs without any good sampling in northern stream

Hmmm. Eric Fischer, solid MET outta Beantown, just said this re. the sampling argument. Thoughts?

Have heard that satellite sampling in extremely cold regions can be very problematic.

Im not sold on that at all the sampling up in Canada on t any vort dropping in is not being sampled good at this point will get better in the next couple days

[algae888]

I'm not giving up until the Saturday runs without any good sampling in northern stream

Hmmm. Eric Fischer, solid MET outta Beantown, just said this re. the sampling argument. Thoughts?

Have heard that satellite sampling in extremely cold regions can be very problematic.

Im not sold on that at all the sampling up in Canada on t any vort dropping in is not being sampled good at this point will get better in the next couple days

It's not just the sampling of the strength of our particular system in some remote place but also what happens moving forward. strength placement speed of each said system. For example even if the data is correct at zero hours when a model begins its output there will be timing and placement errors going forward regardless as modeling is not a perfect science.  so if they just missed the speed of a shortwave by 3 hours or the strength of a high pressure system 60 hours later by two or three millibars it can mean all the difference in the world in our sensible weather

[algae888]

Great disco from Mount Holly

To be blunt, I am not buying
what the models are selling, though I do think the sharp gradient in
precipitation on the north side makes physical sense (given the
strength of the surface high to its north). A perusal of ensemble
guidance suggests the trend has been for a slower exit stage east of
the southern-stream system, and there are indications that the
interaction with the upstream northern perturbation somewhere in the
vicinity of the northern plains late this weekend could act to (1)
force the southern-stream system farther north with time (as models
tend to struggle mightily with at this time range) and (2) act to
develop a secondary low somewhere upstream (west) of the southern-
stream low. According to the 12z ECMWF, this second low is prevented
from moving northward by a digging shortwave in eastern Canada early
next week. However, the GFS is much faster with this trough,
suggesting that timing uncertainty is very large with this important
feature.

With so many perturbations and complex interactions at play and
large run-to-run variability, I tend to resort to systematic biases
of each model as a starting point. At this time range, models often
are too aggressive with the northern-stream kicking the southern-
stream system offshore before the inevitable northwest-trending
tracks within 48 to 72 hours of the event. The 12z CMC is worthy of
noting its farther northwest track and has been fairly consistent
with this. Given all of the above, it is premature to trim PoPs in
our area Sunday afternoon through Monday night. In fact, I spread
PoPs northward to account for what I suspect are model biases
exhibiting their usual selves. Given the trend this cool season so
far, broad-brushing the timing and expanding PoPs well northward of
medium-range consensus seems to me the wise choice at this juncture

[sroc4]

I'm not giving up until the Saturday runs without any good sampling in northern stream

Hmmm. Eric Fischer, solid MET outta Beantown, just said this re. the sampling argument. Thoughts?

Have heard that satellite sampling in extremely cold regions can be very problematic.

Im not sold on that at all the sampling up in Canada on t any vort dropping in is not being sampled good at this point will get better in the next couple days

It's not just the sampling of the strength of our particular system in some remote place but also what happens moving forward. strength placement speed of each said system. For example even if the data is correct at zero hours when a model begins its output there will be timing and placement errors going forward regardless as modeling is not a perfect science.  so if they just missed the speed of a shortwave by 3 hours or the strength of a high pressure system 60 hours later by two or three millibars it can mean all the difference in the world in our sensible weather

Eric Fisher show me the hard evidence that says models use 99% sat data.  Show the proof that 99% is the actual number. I have a hard time believing that hundreds of thousands (or more)of official recording stations around the globe at various elevations measuring pressures, temps, winds etc only account for 1% of the model inputs into the algorithms.   Give me a break.

[Scullybutcher]

So I guess the 1800 weather balloons they launch everyday are just a waste of $$$.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2018/05/18/it-was-weather-balloon-georgia-not-a-bomb-5-questions-answered-about-them/amp/

[rb924119]

I'm not giving up until the Saturday runs without any good sampling in northern stream

Hmmm. Eric Fischer, solid MET outta Beantown, just said this re. the sampling argument. Thoughts?

Have heard that satellite sampling in extremely cold regions can be very problematic.

Im not sold on that at all the sampling up in Canada on t any vort dropping in is not being sampled good at this point will get better in the next couple days

It's not just the sampling of the strength of our particular system in some remote place but also what happens moving forward. strength placement speed of each said system. For example even if the data is correct at zero hours when a model begins its output there will be timing and placement errors going forward regardless as modeling is not a perfect science.  so if they just missed the speed of a shortwave by 3 hours or the strength of a high pressure system 60 hours later by two or three millibars it can mean all the difference in the world in our sensible weather

Eric Fisher show me the hard evidence that says models use 99% sat data.  Show the proof that 99% is the actual number. I have a hard time believing that hundreds of thousands (or more)of official recording stations around the globe at various elevations measuring pressures, temps, winds etc only account for 1% of the model inputs into the algorithms.   Give me a break.

DONT GO HERE BUDDY. DONT DO IT. ITS A SLIPPERY SLOPE FROM WHERE YOU CANNOT RECOVER AhahAha been here, done this as you well know lmfaoooooooo

[rb924119]

So I guess the 1800 weather balloons they launch everyday are just a waste of $$$.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2018/05/18/it-was-weather-balloon-georgia-not-a-bomb-5-questions-answered-about-them/amp/

Same goes for you........DONT DO IT ahaha

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