Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

[algae888]

I see nothing storm wise for the next 10 days except for some piddly crap Monday night. That takes us into mid January and counting. Very.very disappointing winter so far. I am so sick of rain and temps in the 40's.

Hyde with all due respect what models are you looking at? We have the GEFS and GEPS and along withe EURO suite showing an arctic front moving though here Thursday and crashing temps into a much more winter regime that is setting up the following weeks.
Jan 13-15th time frame again to watch for a storm as skins posted.

MJO into phase 8 this week - a 3 day lag then it starts it affects

Mugs, Im looking at Euro, GFS, FV3-GFS, and CMC operationals that I can see on tropical tidbits. I know there is a pattern change in the works with a change to colder temps and chances but I don't see any real chances for significant snow threats for the next 10 days and I guess Im getting a little impatient.

Today's euro is very close for next weekend if you look at the UK met it looks similar a hour 144 as far out as it goes true the GFS and CMC are a miss new GFS similar to the euro still a ways to go with this one and with a pattern in flux models will not have a handle on this for a few days but yes it's been very frustrating usually we can score a decent event even in a crappy pattern but we've been very unlucky there are no guarantees for snow even with good patterns but our chances do increase

[algae888]

The GE FS look better than the operational for next weekend hopefully we can score with this one

[algae888]

We will get our first true Arctic airmass since early to mid December this Wednesday and Thursday so hopefully we can get the cold entrenched and then the snow will come

[HectorO]

We will get our first true Arctic airmass since early to mid December this Wednesday and Thursday so hopefully we can get the cold entrenched and then the snow will come

I feel like since November lol. That was similar, to what we'll see this week.

[skinsfan1177]

I'm liking this threat more and more and it's improved dramatically.

[skinsfan1177]

Huge improvement from yesterday

[SoulSingMG]

Because we friggin DESERVE it.

[frank 638]

Because we friggin DESERVE it.

yes we do please let this be true

[Guest]

Because we friggin DESERVE it.

Funny. Never good to see this this far out anyway. Weather changes every run and we can only go one way from here.

[skinsfan1177]

Because we friggin DESERVE it.

Funny. Never good to see this this far out anyway. Weather changes every run and we can only go one way from here.

Actually those numbers may push more south in coming days

[Guest]

Hope you’re correct Skins

[Frank_Wx]

Tuesday looks to be dead IMHO. Redevelopment is too far N and E. The MJO forecast does look awesome though. Lets hope these trends stick. I’m still skeptical after the last month

I don't blame your skepticism. But yes, MJO is now in phase 7 and could be in phase 8 by Monday or Tuesday. Good things coming!

We are now starting to see dramatic changes across all guidance and tele connectors. Here are just a few.  negative SOI negative East Asian Mountain torque that isotherm loves to talk about which should cause a ne pac jet retraction and alaskan ridge/-epo., mjo heading into cold phases 500mb reversal over the Arctic with the AO getting significantly negative, continue destruction of the polar vortex that will not consolidate anytime soon I'm thinking a quick Pattern change that last for weeks maybe right through the end of winter love to hear what others  think

Nice post here.

Basically everything we've been talking about, from MJO to Stratosphere, is beginning gain momentum on almost all guidance. We will see an arctic blast later this week and multiple storm chances next week. There will be plenty of cold air to work with.

The SOI is an awesome story. I'll detail more tomorrow. But El Nino is returning in a big way.

[Guest]

Because we friggin DESERVE it.

Funny. Never good to see this this far out anyway. Weather changes every run and we can only go one way from here.

Actually those numbers may push more south in coming days

How can this map show these amounts and you feel they can push more south when the NWS has the storm out to sea with no more than .2” qpf?

[skinsfan1177]

Well for one models underestimate confluence to the north and also models showing a strong High pressure you our North and also its 6 days away. Their are many reasons

[jmanley32]

Take a look at the regular gfs...giggity. This may be a viable threat for a mecs or maybe more. But a mecs is more than I expect at this time.

[skinsfan1177]

Take a look at the regular gfs...giggity. This may be a viable threat for a mecs or maybe more. But a mecs is more than I expect at this time.

there are a lot of big hitters

[Frank_Wx]

A potential storm system is threatening our area Sunday into Monday. Some models are dropping several inches of snow over our area. The best part about the set-up is the western ridge (+PNA). It is centered over Montana - exactly where we want it to be for an east coast snowstorm.



Keep in mind El Nino is just about to get going. The southern piece of energy associated with this set-up is not that potent. The Sub-Tropical Jet has just started its engine. It will take some time for it to warm-up then take off.



But the northern piece of energy does looks pretty potent. As you know, if the 2 phase - which has a chance thanks to the +PNA ridge - then we could see a snowstorm Sunday into Monday.

It is about 1 week away. We have time to see how things play out. If the ridge breaks down this storm has no shot. We do NOT have Atlantic blocking (-NAO), so without this ridge we will have no storm. Simple as that.

[rb924119]

Still do not like this threat, at all, for our region. Central and or southern Mid-Atlantic is the place to be for this one, I think.

[nutleyblizzard]

Huge hit on the 12z GFS for this weekend!!!

[algae888]

Huge hit on the 12z GFS for this weekend!!!

CMC is much improved to not as good looking as the GFS but very close to it

[dkodgis]

I suppose if the Eagles can win on a double-doinker, we can have snow this Sun. Incredible things do happen.

[nutleyblizzard]

Huge hit on the 12z GFS for this weekend!!!

CMC is much improved to not as good looking as the GFS but very close to it

CMC actually is much stronger than the GFS. It bombs out to 972mb in the gulf of Maine. The run looked wonky to me though. The western flank of the storm looked weak with a bombing out low thus us missing the heaviest snows. In any case we are 6 days away from a potential significant event.

[algae888]

It's good to have another model besides the GFS on board be nice to see the UK and the Euro follow suit today. there is some support from the eps and the Euro does give us some snow from the northern stream. we are not 7 plus days out this is 5 + days. sometimes the models are picking up that it just wants to snow in this time period Even though the solutions look somewhat different. at least we have something to track

[Frank_Wx]

The 12z GFS was a big hit and there was not even a phase with the northern branch

[Frank_Wx]

Still do not like this threat, at all, for our region. Central and or southern Mid-Atlantic is the place to be for this one, I think.

What are your reasons for not liking this threat?

+PNA, huge north Atlantic High, STJ (albeit weak) and arctic energy

[amugs]

rb really?? The evolution of the upper atmospheric pattern is ripening for a high ceiling event - curious as to you reasoning.

The ridge out west is being pumped - is this what you are disagreeing with?
I have to say I wish it were Friday 12z or even Saturday than Monday - my one concern.

This is beautiful though:

[jmanley32]

The 12z Gfs shows motherazilla to Godzilla potential. I'm hopeful but tempering expectations.

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