Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

[jmanley32]

What did the euro and ensembles show today?

[Guest]

EURO OTS
GFS BM

[Dunnzoo]

Due to Govt shutdown, NWS not sending up as many helium balloons for readings so models will lack some data, making the models somewhat a mess... oh well, I guess I'll just wait and give it a few days...

[amugs]

Zoos right lack of data ingested into models here are causing a mess. This just sucks and simple.

[rb924119]

Due to Govt shutdown, NWS not sending up as many helium balloons for readings so models will lack some data, making the models somewhat a mess... oh well, I guess I'll just wait and give it a few days...

Not true. I have confirmed this through multiple sources. That was valid for Upton office only.

[Grselig]

thanks RB. You answered my question before posted?

[jmanley32]

Gfs came further north west than 18z but not a 12z hit. Still gives some decent snow to coast.

[SoulSingMG]

Gfs came further north west than 18z but not a 12z hit. Still gives some decent snow to coast.

500mb improved from 18z. But again, it's the GFS.

[Dunnzoo]

Due to Govt shutdown, NWS not sending up as many helium balloons for readings so models will lack some data, making the models somewhat a mess... oh well, I guess I'll just wait and give it a few days...

Not true. I have confirmed this through multiple sources. That was valid for Upton office only.

Sorry I didn't clarify that it was Upton, but last I checked they were part of the NWS

[rb924119]

In looking at the GEFS ensemble member MSLP plot on Tidbits, there is now a clear bi-modal distribution that is split almost as 50/50 as you can get. One camp is in the GFS Operational camp, while the other is in the EURO camp. This, to me, suggests a nod toward the EURO solution, as most GEFS members have been clustered around the mean, or biased to the north of it in recent runs. Now, the mean is useless as the camps exist on either side. As such, it has become an “all” or “nothing” type of event, at least for now and according to this ensemble.

[rb924119]

EURO holds serve, might even be further suppressed. Tough to tell from Tidbits maps lol

[Guest]

NWS backed off considerably on the snow threat for the weekend. Must be buying the suppression solution. Absolutely unbelievable we go from suppression to a month of cutters and now suppression again. Please just get me to April already. I’m finished

[docstox12]

NWS backed off considerably on the snow threat for the weekend. Must be buying the suppression solution. Absolutely unbelievable we go from suppression to a month of cutters and now suppression again. Please just get me to April already. I’m finished

It sure has been frustrating, Nov 15 to Jan 15 with nothing to speak of.Upper air patterns just not favorable.Still, there are 2 1/2 months of snow production time available.February is the traditional best month for snow around here and lately March has been good.Can't abandon ship at this juncture!

[Grselig]

Interesting article how the shutdown does negatively hurt the GFS. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/01/07/national-weather-service-is-open-your-forecast-is-worse-because-shutdown/?utm_term=.e6b9c4413724

[nutleyblizzard]

NWS backed off considerably on the snow threat for the weekend. Must be buying the suppression solution. Absolutely unbelievable we go from suppression to a month of cutters and now suppression again. Please just get me to April already. I’m finished

It sure has been frustrating, Nov 15 to Jan 15 with nothing to speak of.Upper air patterns just not favorable.Still, there are 2 1/2 months of snow production time available.February is the traditional best month for snow around here and lately March has been good.Can't abandon ship at this juncture!

Yea it has been frustrating, but giving up this early is foolish. We are in the early stages of a pattern regime change that will be established by this weekend / early next week. The southern just started getting warmed up too. Remember folks, El Nino's are notoriously back loaded winters. Second half of January thru February and March will be cold/snowy. Hang in there everyone.

[sroc4]

Do not get discouraged by the 13th system being suppressed.  While it’s not entirely dead yet, IMHO it almost always looked to be a suppressed system so for me there wasn’t anything to get too worked up over nor disappointed over. While this set up and likely ultimate soln has very similar tendencies to the suppressed Dec 9th/10th storm, unlike that system behind it the pattern becomes ripe for the picking rather than headed to the above normal temp/cutter pattern that followed the Dec system.

I still firmly believe that when this winter is said and done many will grade it around a B. That means a big time come back given the last month. If you don’t want to buy it fine but keep it in the playpen thread. Any garbage in here will be deleted.

[skinsfan1177]

This threat is far from over people.GEFS spread shows some lean north still.

[sroc4]

GFS 00z (still showing decent storm affecting coastal plain) vs 06z storm system OTS and suppressed.  

Two main features to watch if you going to look at models.  Surface is useless.  500 tells the story.

00z:  




VS the 06z:







The Euro has been more consistent showing the N energy out ahead of the S energy AND has been more consistently showing the S energy more strung out vs consolidated when compared to the GFS.  In Ray's write up he mentioned this as well.  The strung out nature of the energy, if this is being modeled correctly by the euro, will make it very diff for the heights to raise out ahead of the system because it generates a weaker system overall.  This combined with the N energy ahead of the S energy does not lend me to believe that we end up with a true snow storm...this time because the 500mb flow along the coast remains too progressive to bring the storm track N enough.  While I certainly have not written anything off, esp some light snow possibly making it into parts of the area, a suppressed soln is def where I am leaning until I see the euro shift towards a more consolidated S energy and/or a slower N energy.  

[Frank_Wx]

You read my mind Scott. Was just coming to post this.

The northern stream energy on the 6z GFS acted as a "kicker" or "confluent" energy that deamplifies heights along the east coast. If this piece ejects ahead of the southern stream energy this storm threat is done. One would think the western ridge allows the northern stream energy to slow down or try to phase with the southern stream, but the ridge is constantly disrupted by other pieces of energy and it begins to roll forward.

I'm not declaring this threat "dead" yet, but the EURO has been adamant that it stays to our south.

[Guest]

For weekend and then next week from Upton

Not good if your looking for a pattern change and sustained cold and snow chances

[aiannone]

12z GFS is OTS

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

12z GFS is OTS

No surprise.

This was never more than a one day blip on a couple of model runs

[rb924119]

Interesting article how the shutdown does negatively hurt the GFS.    https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/01/07/national-weather-service-is-open-your-forecast-is-worse-because-shutdown/?utm_term=.e6b9c4413724

THIS. IS. FALSE.

[heehaw453]

Weekend (1/13) definitely doesn't look like any consolidated storm now on most guidance. Maybe we can get fringed and get an inch or two. I guess after some blocking sets up later we would be more apt for a consolidated storm by slowing the flow. We shall see.

[billg315]

Actually the 12Z GFS is back north (somewhat - about 200 miles) with the Sunday storm from what the 6z had which had it missing us completely to the south. Still keeps the heaviest precip over VA/MD but gets some snow north into NJ and NY again. I still think it's a bit early to write this off, although odds do favor it sliding by to our south like that December storm.

[bobjohnsonforthehall]

Fair amount of GEFS members north. I'm not enthused about the chances. However, the fat lady may be onstage, but the singing has not as yet commenced.

[jmanley32]

Blah not what I was hoping to hear but its not unexpected. I k ow its early but this is not by any means gonna. E a awesome einter. Seems that ended years ago.

[Sponsored content]