Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

[bobjohnsonforthehall]

Fair amount of GEFS members north. I'm not enthused about the chances. However, the fat lady may be onstage, but the singing has not as yet commenced.

[jmanley32]

Blah not what I was hoping to hear but its not unexpected. I k ow its early but this is not by any means gonna. E a awesome einter. Seems that ended years ago.

[aiannone]

12z CMC is close

[skinsfan1177]

Euro has big changes

[amugs]

GEFS - more lean NW

Have not looked at the 500 maps yet but from Tom ala Isotherm:
Substantial cave to the GEFS here. The TPV angular momentum is a small flaw, which, if placement altered slightly, the s/w would have room to consolidate and amplify much more
Interesting discussion here about the strung out and none consolidated look and for those who think this is dead need to really take a step back and let the energy get better sampling

Evolution of pattern to the 20th
Beautiful High Latitude Blocking over head adn the ALeutian Vortex pumps the EPO and PNA to more favorable indicies

[Guest]

Euro has big changes

Positive?

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Euro has big changes

Positive?

Negative?

[skinsfan1177]

Euro has big changes

Positive?

Negative?

There was positive changes in the latest you're a run for sure

[nutleyblizzard]

Euro has big changes

Euro was not far from a partial phase. Southern shortwave was stronger. Light snows get into the area. Good improvements nonetheless.

[skinsfan1177]

Euro has big changes

Euro was not far from a partial phase. Southern shortwave was stronger. Light snows get into the area. Good improvements nonetheless.

It was a big step curious to see more runs but one of the bigger things that I noticed was that the ridge we hold on to it a lot longer

[amugs]

JMA

[SENJsnowman]

Am I correct in seeing that (as of now) this has potential to be a little Shore special?

[skinsfan1177]

Am I correct in seeing that (as of now) this has potential to be a little Shore special?

Things look good for cnj and snj

[Guest]

So both the EURO and GFS bring light snow into the NYC coastal areas at this time 4 days out?

[Guest]

So both the EURO and GFS bring light snow into the NYC coastal areas at this time 4 days out?

[SoulSingMG]

EPS night and day from 00z. Threat continues.

[skinsfan1177]

EPS night and day from 00z. Threat continues.

Some big hitters in eps

[SoulSingMG]

EPS night and day from 00z. Threat continues.

Some big hitters in eps

Yeah, like a 978 drifting toward the BM

[sroc4]

Quick down and dirty comparison on 00z euro vs 12z euro.  Bottom line is there were def improvements.  How much further can it go is yet to be seen.  

First thing I notice is early on in the run there is more consolidation of southern energy:





Later in the run:





The difference between the 12z and 00z by Jan 13th 12z is the energy is further N indicated by the arrow pointing N towards RI.  As a result before the main LP develops off the coast with the main energy the 12z gets some over running snow into S NE where as the 00z did not due to the reasosn mentioned above.  Not much but a little.  




Now on both 00z and 12z euro the N Trough(1) is still deflecting the main energy to the south.  If we head out to the Jan 14th at 00z we see just how much further N the main LP center is relative to the 00z due to the main features prev mentioned.  Also note a 6mb increase in strength to the main LP due to more consolidated energy, and as a result a much more expansive precip shield on 12z vs 00z.  



 


As of now only a light over running event occurs.  Ratios would be very high ie 15-25:1 as modeled.  A few more clicks in a similar fashion 1) even more consolidation of S energy 2) even slower and further N&W the N Trough and additional large positive changes at the surface are in order.  HOWEVER, the same amount of tiny changes back in the other direction at 500mb and you get what the 00z Euro showed.  We will have to see what happens over the next 24-48hrs of model cycles.  Like Mr Bob said above the fat lady is on the dance floor, but by no means has the curtain been raised and by no means has she started to sing.  


WE TRACK!!

[SoulSingMG]

EPS night and day from 00z. Threat continues.

Some big hitters in eps

Yeah, like a 978 drifting toward the BM

Well, 988 over the BM.

[aiannone]

Hey I gotta say, this is fun to at least have something suspenseful to track. Been a while

[Guest]

Scott. The SLP moved from due off the northern coast of South Carolina latitude on the 0z to Virginia Beach latitude on the 12z. I’m not a believer in this threat BUT THAT IS A HUUUUUUUUGE NORTH SHIFT IN ONE RUN IS IT NOT?

[billg315]

Scott. The SLP moved from due off the northern coast of South Carolina latitude on the 0z to Virginia Beach latitude on the 12z. I’m not a believer in this threat BUT THAT IS A HUUUUUUUUGE NORTH SHIFT IN ONE RUN IS IT NOT?

Definitely. Same or similar jump north in the GFS from 6z to 12z today. Sooooo, the trend is our friend today. Lets see if it can keep going that way!

[Guest]

Scott. The SLP moved from due off the northern coast of South Carolina latitude on the 0z to Virginia Beach latitude on the 12z. I’m not a believer in this threat BUT THAT IS A HUUUUUUUUGE NORTH SHIFT IN ONE RUN IS IT NOT?

Definitely. Same or similar jump north in the GFS from 6z to 12z today. Sooooo, the trend is our friend today. Lets see if it can keep going that way!

You’d be a poet and didn’t even know it......

But seriously I have zero hope. The 12z run was a blip. Just saying. Tonight’s runs will break our hearts

[Guest]

Here’s what we all need. AND SOON (he’s recently been spotted near the radioactive fallout at OTI

https://youtu.be/WLyiHHEHylw

[Grselig]

Scott. The SLP moved from due off the northern coast of South Carolina latitude on the 0z to Virginia Beach latitude on the 12z. I’m not a believer in this threat BUT THAT IS A HUUUUUUUUGE NORTH SHIFT IN ONE RUN IS IT NOT?

Definitely. Same or similar jump north in the GFS from 6z to 12z today. Sooooo, the trend is our friend today. Lets see if it can keep going that way!

You’d be a poet and didn’t even know it......

But seriously I have zero hope. The 12z run was a blip. Just saying. Tonight’s runs will break our hearts

Can't argue with you. Cant be set up for a world of pain again. Supression = depression

[sroc4]

Scott. The SLP moved from due off the northern coast of South Carolina latitude on the 0z to Virginia Beach latitude on the 12z. I’m not a believer in this threat BUT THAT IS A HUUUUUUUUGE NORTH SHIFT IN ONE RUN IS IT NOT?

Huge jump on the surface. Small changes at 500mb.

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