Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

by **Grselig** Tue Jan 08, 2019 4:16 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
billg315 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Scott. The SLP moved from due off the northern coast of South Carolina latitude on the 0z to Virginia Beach latitude on the 12z. I’m not a believer in this threat BUT THAT IS A HUUUUUUUUGE NORTH SHIFT IN ONE RUN IS IT NOT?

Definitely. Same or similar jump north in the GFS from 6z to 12z today. Sooooo, the trend is our friend today. Lets see if it can keep going that way!

You’d be a poet and didn’t even know it......

But seriously I have zero hope. The 12z run was a blip. Just saying. Tonight’s runs will break our hearts

Can't argue with you. Cant be set up for a world of pain again. Supression = depression

by **sroc4** Tue Jan 08, 2019 4:24 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Scott. The SLP moved from due off the northern coast of South Carolina latitude on the 0z to Virginia Beach latitude on the 12z. I’m not a believer in this threat BUT THAT IS A HUUUUUUUUGE NORTH SHIFT IN ONE RUN IS IT NOT?

Huge jump on the surface. Small changes at 500mb.

by **crippo84** Tue Jan 08, 2019 4:28 pm

NWS is starting to sniff out the potential northern shift in track as well...

by **skinsfan1177** Tue Jan 08, 2019 4:29 pm

Did anyone see the NAM WOW

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 08, 2019 4:54 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Did anyone see the NAM WOW

too far put what am I looking at at 84 hrs?

by **amugs** Tue Jan 08, 2019 5:12 pm

Look at the NAM 500mb map.and not the surface, and stop dissing this model. I have to say since it's upgrade it has done well within its time frame overall.

Slight changes are really all that t is needs.
From a pro.met and sum it up easily with this map, Allan Weather from Tweeter.

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by **SENJsnowman** Tue Jan 08, 2019 5:14 pm

18z not done yet, but looks like the trend is stil our friend...another step in the right direction. Lite accumulations throughout eastern PA and 3-6" all of southern NJ. Also system much slower to exit OTS than in previous runs

(PS: Please BOLO for me being flat wrong and please do correct me at any point...thanks!).

by **amugs** Tue Jan 08, 2019 5:23 pm

Much less coflunce moves up and out a bit.more giving the room to come north. Good progression and evolution. Need more rus over the next 24 hours showing this.

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by **rb924119** Tue Jan 08, 2019 5:24 pm

Beware the windshield wiper effect. That is all.

by **amugs** Tue Jan 08, 2019 5:33 pm

The Ridge is sharper in the above 500mb map and the TV kicks out faster and there really is not phased bomb but acts on its own as Southern Vort. The PNA as Frank has been harping on will be along with the Troposphere Lobe of cofluence dictate this storms outcome. 36 -48 more hours before we get better sampling.

Slower is better in one aspect to allow the TV to get out of the way and allow heights to rise on the EC to allow this to come N but takes out the phased bomb. But we need the PNA Ridge to hold for a good 16 -18 hours longer.

by Guest Tue Jan 08, 2019 5:34 pm

rb924119 wrote:Beware the windshield wiper effect. That is all.

I agree with you 100%. This time Thursday we will be suppressed down to Georgia SC borders

by **amugs** Tue Jan 08, 2019 5:35 pm

rb924119 wrote:Beware the windshield wiper effect. That is all.

Yes of course and it's time Thursday we could be waving this goodbye.

Time will tell as always. One ring for sure is it is going to get arctic cold FRI trough Sunday

by **mikeypizano** Tue Jan 08, 2019 5:36 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Beware the windshield wiper effect. That is all.

I agree with you 100%. This time Thursday we will be suppressed down to Georgia SC borders

Or way up in Canada Laughing

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 08, 2019 5:45 pm

amugs wrote:Much less coflunce moves up and out a bit.more giving the room to come north. Good progression and evolution. Need more rus over the next 24 hours showing this.

It's the trend we needed. Lots of time for more change

by **Dunnzoo** Tue Jan 08, 2019 7:36 pm

rb924119 wrote:
Grselig wrote:Interesting article how the shutdown does negatively hurt the GFS. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/01/07/national-weather-service-is-open-your-forecast-is-worse-because-shutdown/?utm_term=.e6b9c4413724

THIS. IS. FALSE.

Boy rb, did you get up on the wrong side of the bed this morning? jeez lighten up or name your sources that tell you it's false....

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 08, 2019 7:38 pm

The trend continues.

The 18z EURO shows a better ridge orientation, sharper trough, and less confluence from its 12z run.

by **nutleyblizzard** Tue Jan 08, 2019 7:51 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The trend continues.

The 18z EURO shows a better ridge orientation, sharper trough, and less confluence from its 12z run.

What does the surface map look like?

by **billg315** Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:19 pm

Windshield wiper effect is real. But we have good days and bad in model watching, and today was largely good. And yes by Thursday morning the storm could be shooting OTS off the SE Coast. Of course, by that token, by Friday it could be tracking off the Delmarva. Very Happy

by **nutleyblizzard** Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:49 pm

18z EPS is further N/W. 2-3 inches of snow in NYC metro.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:31 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:18z EPS is further N/W. 2-3 inches of snow in NYC metro.

This could end up a moderate event for CNJ on south. Anyone from NYC on south and due east should monitor but don't get your hopes to high.

If your north of NYC especially, 20 miles or more, expect nothing because that's what you're getting from this.

by **aiannone** Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:42 pm

Anyone staying up for tonight’s model runs?

by **dkodgis** Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:42 pm

I’m putting all my money on CP

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:43 pm

aiannone wrote:Anyone staying up for tonight’s model runs?

Just the NAM and GFS

by **heehaw453** Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:53 pm

0Z NAM seems pretty juiced. I got a feeling may need a thread on this threat.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 08, 2019 10:00 pm

The NAM looks incredible.

I'll say this - the trend today is undeniable and anyone who says otherwise is blatantly ignoring facts. I did not think the southern stream energy will get as strong as todays models suggest, but with El Nino strengthening (SOI collapse and phase 8 MJO), it makes sense. This means heights will rise along the coast despite confluence to the north. Its still possible (very possible) the confluence remains too strong and heights stay flat, causing the storm to stay south, but I'm actually leaning against that right now. I think a light to moderate snowfall event will happen for NYC metro Saturday night thru Sunday.

Factors:

1. Southern stream energy trending stronger
2. Ridge axis should allow at least partial phasing with polar energy
3. Confluence moves out faster
4. Cold air already in place
5. SOI collapsed, MJO phase 8

by **amugs** Tue Jan 08, 2019 10:04 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:18z EPS is further N/W. 2-3 inches of snow in NYC metro.

This could end up a moderate event for CNJ on south. Anyone from NYC on south and due east should monitor but don't get your hopes to high.

If your north of NYC especially, 20 miles or more, expect nothing because that's what you're getting from this.

We shall see but you are in the Debbie wah wah group with Syo and rb. Euro makes small improvement's not big swings/jumps so any switch g by this model is a good sign and we have had 3 in a row. Time will tell and we'll see but if these trends continue overbite next 24 hours then I can see MUCH EXCITEMENT with a small contingent still not on board.

by **billg315** Tue Jan 08, 2019 10:05 pm

NAM showing strong ridging near Montana and seems to be trying to direct the upper air flow a little more northeast over the Eastern US rather than flat off the coast but not quite there yet. Will be anxious to see how that looks once we get about 12 more hours into it. Tomorrow AM runs should be interesting.

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