First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

SoulSingMG wrote:Are we just discounting the Euro orrrrr...?

(1:30pm yesterday)

Hmmmmm

#AllHailTheKing

It is 11:23 the wife has now been on the road for almost 9 hrs!!! Kids in yonkers just got picked up at school or were stranded for 5 plus hrs on school busses, people are infuriated here with the school district and yonkers in general, the DPW did no salting, I have still yet to see a plow on any main roads and thats all over per a city FB group i belong too, wtf is going on!!! I have never seen this b4.

jmanley32 wrote:It is 11:23 the wife has now been on the road for almost 9 hrs!!! Kids in yonkers just got picked up at school or were stranded for 5 plus hrs on school busses, people are infuriated here with the school district and yonkers in general, the DPW did no salting, I have still yet to see a plow on any main roads and thats all over per a city FB group i belong too, wtf is going on!!! I have never seen this b4.

It's really, really bad. I drove up Route 1 into Greenwich and abandoned cars are littering it. Not sure I've seen anything this bad as well in terms of widespread mayhem on the roads.

SoulSingMG wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Are we just discounting the Euro orrrrr...?

Hmmmmm

We knew it was coming, later than usual but as syo said they still had a 8 hr warning, they issued a WSW 2 hrs b4 the start.....of course schools would not have prepared they go solely by the NWS, and every other met was saying a inch or two maybe here, well I can confirm b4 the rain and wind we got 7...that is just a aweful dropping of the ball. I love it the snow, but this could have been avoided starting with the NWS, not knocking them in general but this particular event was not a good show of their work.

And the winner in a landslide is??

Orange County, I'm not buying the 18.3 though, even if it is a trained spotter.


..Orange County...
Mount Hope 18.3 1045 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
Gardnertown 13.0 1027 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
Newburgh 11.3 930 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
Walden 11.0 805 PM 11/15 CoCoRaHS
Montgomery 10.5 730 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
Goshen 10.2 1000 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
Highland Mills 10.2 1000 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
Vails Gate 10.0 810 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
Otisville 10.0 850 PM 11/15 Public
Middletown 9.2 830 PM 11/15 Fire Dept/Rescue
Monroe 9.0 800 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
New Windsor 9.0 730 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
Warwick 9.0 1045 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
Westtown 8.8 1045 PM 11/15 Social Media

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Are we just discounting the Euro orrrrr...?

Hmmmmm

We knew it was coming, later than usual but as syo said they still had a 8 hr warning, they issued a WSW 2 hrs b4 the start.....of course schools would not have prepared they go solely by the NWS, and every other met was saying a inch or two maybe here, well I can confirm b4 the rain and wind we got 7...that is just a aweful dropping of the ball.  I love it the snow, but this could have been avoided starting with the NWS, not knocking them in general but this particular event was not a good show of their work.

Mehhhh. I don't think anyone really grasped just how bad the evening rush would be in New York City metro until around noon when data like the HRRR was rolling in and popping eyes. The issue, per usual, is the "boy who cried snow." Blizzard of the century? "Shut it all down!" Then we get ten inches. People go mad, get angry. On the contrary, 1, maybe 2 inches? High end bust potential of 3 (per the NWS until this afternoon even) like this storm? "Meh, we'll be fine!" Then six inches later, you've got one of the biggest cities in the world completely crippled during rush hour. But is there a middle ground? I think so. Don't shut down the trains for a threat like today's but maybe yeah, let's put chains on the busses just in case we get 5 inches instead of 2. Let's pretreat the roads that we know are essential arteries. There's gotta be a better understanding from the folks who make the decisions to alert the public and put action plans into gear. Alerts should've gone out at noon to the public in some way shape or form communicating the rush hour threat so folks could leave work early who had the ability to do so. However, I do also think no matter how you slice it, weather will be weather...and will always deliver surprises no matter what model you hug—I don't think we will live to see the day when we as a society will reach a point when we'll not be delivered a crippling blow "ever again", regardless of preparedness or models or science. Doesn't mean we can't try to do better though.

SoulSingMG wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:It is 11:23 the wife has now been on the road for almost 9 hrs!!! Kids in yonkers just got picked up at school or were stranded for 5 plus hrs on school busses, people are infuriated here with the school district and yonkers in general, the DPW did no salting, I have still yet to see a plow on any main roads and thats all over per a city FB group i belong too, wtf is going on!!! I have never seen this b4.

It's really, really bad. I drove up Route 1 into Greenwich and abandoned cars are littering it. Not sure I've seen anything this bad as well in terms of widespread mayhem on the roads.

they are less than a mile away for past 2 hrs, im so tired and i need to be up early but i do not feel right going to bed b4 they get home.

SoulSingMG wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Are we just discounting the Euro orrrrr...?

Hmmmmm

We knew it was coming, later than usual but as syo said they still had a 8 hr warning, they issued a WSW 2 hrs b4 the start.....of course schools would not have prepared they go solely by the NWS, and every other met was saying a inch or two maybe here, well I can confirm b4 the rain and wind we got 7...that is just a aweful dropping of the ball.  I love it the snow, but this could have been avoided starting with the NWS, not knocking them in general but this particular event was not a good show of their work.

Mehhhh. I don't think anyone really grasped just how bad the evening rush would be in New York City metro until around noon when data like the HRRR was rolling in and popping eyes. The issue, per usual, is the "boy who cried snow." Blizzard of the century? "Shut it all down!" Then we get ten inches. People go mad, get angry. On the contrary, 1, maybe 2 inches? High end bust potential of 3 (per the NWS until this afternoon even) like this storm? "Meh, we'll be fine!" Then six inches later, you've got one of the biggest cities in the world completely crippled during rush hour. But is there a middle ground? I think so. Don't shut down the trains for a threat like today's but maybe yeah, let's put chains on the busses just in case we get 5 inches instead of 2. Let's pretreat the roads that we know are essential arteries. There's gotta be a better understanding from the folks who make the decisions to alert the public and put action plans into gear. Alerts should've gone out at noon to the public in some way shape or form communicating the rush hour threat so folks could leave work early who had the ability to do so. However, I do also think no matter how you slice it, weather will be weather...and will always deliver surprises no matter what model you hug—I don't think we will live to see the day when we as a society will reach a point when we'll not be delivered a crippling blow "ever again", regardless of preparedness or models or science. Doesn't mean we can't try to do better though.

This is true, and especially for yonkers aka little san francisco.  We have enourmous hills, even 4x4 have trouble on ice, we had sleet first which made a icy road then 7 inches snow on top then frz then rain, they should always prepare for the worst and hope for the best.  Moms are freaking cuz kids are getting home NOW with pee and poop pants starving light headed, one son thought he was going to die in a cold bus, Yonkers must pay this back somehow, its dispicable. IMO the right thing to do would be for the mayor DPW commisioner and school super to step down tomorrow in press coference cuz clearly they do not care about the well being of this city and worse its kids. I do not care how much the snow was unexpected, this has NEVER happened b4.

SoulSingMG wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Are we just discounting the Euro orrrrr...?

(1:30pm yesterday)

Hmmmmm

#AllHailTheKing

You got that right. The high resolution models did a much better job with this setup than the GooFuS once again. No surprise.

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Are we just discounting the Euro orrrrr...?

Hmmmmm

We knew it was coming, later than usual but as syo said they still had a 8 hr warning, they issued a WSW 2 hrs b4 the start.....of course schools would not have prepared they go solely by the NWS, and every other met was saying a inch or two maybe here, well I can confirm b4 the rain and wind we got 7...that is just a aweful dropping of the ball.  I love it the snow, but this could have been avoided starting with the NWS, not knocking them in general but this particular event was not a good show of their work.

Sorry to hear about your family. That really sucks and I hope they get home safe. I don't agree though that people knew it was coming. The city was totally unprepared for the intensity and duration of the snowfall. Most forecasts were for an inch or 2 of slush for the city right up until last night. They just didn't have enough time to prepare. Plows were not put on trucks and buses had no chains. that stuff takes time and some planning. It was a total disaster and some blame has to be given to the NWS and other forecasters that they use.

Latest storm totals for Nov 15th 2018 storm.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS

Found wife and daughter a mile up the road stuck cuz a tractor trailer was stuck blocking lanes and multiple other cars were get stuck, I had her turn around and go a special route she had forgotten about, literally a 11 hr drive home....we could have gone to canada! The amount of abandoned cars is surreal and some even left in the middle of the highway (basically blocking a entrance ramp just barely enough room for a car to squeeze by., rumsey road for those who know it had at least a half dozen abandoned cars and that area by the highway is a really long walk to any residential area. I will call this a unusual diaster and yes it is a disaster in my eyes. kids were put in danger, maybe i was too harsh on dpw and mayor but still unsalted roads, lets hope the next one they do not play around. But watch that one falls though and then the next time they wont take it seriously or get caught off guard like this one. sigh gn everyone. Oh at least my poor daughter has no school tomorrow.

12 inches here in wappingers. just finished cleaning up so we can work in the morning. Government sucks. they are in charge of the roads. they salt when there is a inch and the sun is coming out and going to be 50 and do nothing in big storms. not all there fault too many dummies who drive in snow and have no business. storm may have over produced but regardless a inch or 10 inches is hard to drive in.
If there is a snow potential dont drive unless you can handle it or you ruin it for everyone.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:8.5 inches as of 8:45 pm with snow and sleet.

It will be interesting to see if we can crack 10.

The pros didn't seem to trust the models much on this one. I'm sure they'll rethink that. They left a lot of road crews in the urban areas with their thumbs up their asses. Pardon the French.

9 inches as of 8 pm by a trained spotter.A great early snowstorm for sure.

Even the great Lee Goldberg had maybe a "slushy inch" ( I hate that word slushy) for the City on Wednesday night.My area was on the edge of 3 to 6 according to his map.Our crew nailed this one and I am proud of the NJ Strong Long Range crew for their work on this one.Lets hope this pattern holds for the hole winter, busting high everywhere for every storm.

I was sorry to read the chaos on the roads and all of our members who suffered as a result.Geez, it's tough enough working 8 hours a day, having to be tortured with worry on the roads home should not happen.The reports I was reading here reminded me of the "Mayor Lindsay February 1969" snowstorm where city streets were very badly plowed after nearly 20 inches fell.

Looks dry out there right now but I see on the radar precip building south and west of me.Lee had mentioned a second shot of snow from 5 to 9 AM, so lest see what happens later.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:

WeatherBob wrote:Mount Hope in Orange County, Spotter reported 17 in as of 9:30 pm

Impossible. I believe you heard that but no way is that possible

Lots of reports of a foot in Orange County but 17 seems pretty high. But if they were under a persistent band who knows. There were 4 inch per hour rates in northern orange for a couple of hours so it’s possible.

I find that Mt Hope final total of 18.3 incredulous as well, but your explanation, CP, is very possible.Every snowstorm has its local nuances, such as where bands develop.We saw that in last March's snowstorm where we got 27 inches being under 3 to 4 inch bands for 3 hours or so.All it would have taken is an hour and a half under a 4 inch band for them in Mt Hope to make that total.I didn't notice heavy winds with this storm so drifting is not an issue.Also, our own Janet here is a trained spotter and I respect their methodology in knowing the proper technique for measurement.

weatherwatchermom wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:Steady rain here and windy

did you get any snow? we got a little over 2 inches  and then ice and now just a cold rain and windy

No snow at all

Backend snows moving in should be able to squeeze out another inch. 6.5" so far. Cleanup should be fun with the .1" of ice accretion last night.

Getting a wintry mix again hopefully I can get another inch of snow but I doubt it

I don’t see any excuse for road crews/govt being unprepared for this. Even in my forecast which was low, I had most people getting 1-2” of snow then a period of sleet/freezing rain. Just north of that I had 2-4” of snow then sleet/freezing rain. Each was an underestimate (my zones should have been 3-5 and 5-10) but even with that low-ball prediction, I told co-workers Wednesday to prepare for a slow, messy PM rush hour Thursday evening. 2-4” is plowable snow esp with sleet on top; and 1-2” with sleet on top is a pre-treat, salting event at a minimum, plowing if it overperforms by just an inch or two. Road crews were going to be needed even if the LOW forecasts verified and the timing was always (at least in my forecast) for the rain changeover to be after the PM rush - so the snow and sleet was always going to still be falling as people left work. I’ll add a more “political” thought in banter.

Light to moderate snow.Horrible snow to shovel, 9 inches compacted down with a layer of sleet, concrete.Reminds me of the 1993 March storm.Hate that.Chester School district where my wife is a teachers aide closed today.

Moderate snow right now.  Had about 7" but hard to measure directly because my kids decided to shovel it away!  Did not expect this back end.  No school in Wayne.  Gotta say this was a big bust.  Feels good to bust high. Great start to winter.  I feel horrible for kids stuck at school or on the buses for hours.  We had early dismissal yesterday and I am thankful.  Hope everybody is safe!

Snow here as well this morning. Should end soon. Well my forecast map was under-done on snow amounts but at least I was right about the “burst of snow” as the rain ended Friday morning.

On the road crew preparation issue I’ll add that most people on here were talking about bumping up their forecasts by yesterday morning, pre-snow, and we were calling this a potential overperformer by midday before the snow was falling in most places.

The closest trained spotter, who reported in from about 5 miles away, reported a total of 12.5" as of 5 AM. I haven't been out yet this morning, but if that measurement is anywhere close to true I take back my previous complaints about this storm under performing. Either way I looked out the window and it's absolutely gorgeous.

Doc and CP. heavy squall incoming. You’re picking up another quick inch

9.2 inches here and still snowing lightly. I'm probably under reporting by an inch at least because there was several hours of freezing rain and sleet last night that compacted the snow pack. My fault for not clearing my snow board last night.

NYC reported 6.4 inches for the day. Only the 5th November storm for them of more than six inches.

Man oh man sounds like I missed quite the storm

I actually wish I was home even though it looked like this:



I mean, holy crap