December 2018 Observations and Discussions

frank 638 wrote:So depressing that we got all this cold air with no snow in sight

docstox12 wrote:

frank 638 wrote:So depressing that we got all this cold air with no snow in sight

Agree 100% especially when I see NWS forecasting up to 20 inches for the Blue Ridge Mountain area of Virginia.One of the worst things IMO is having a week of snow producing cold air with nothing to show for it.After that massive amount of rain  in the spring and summer I'm hoping that does not result in a cold and dry winter for us with all the snowstorms sliding south like the Snowmageddon Winter.As the crawl above states, it's cold and dry here.

Frank_Wx wrote:Nice post Scott.

There are many factors that lead to a favorable pattern. Just because it is cold it does not mean the pattern favors snowstorms. You need an organized trough with energy consolidating at its base, or a polar jet stream positioned over us to get some clipper-like storms. Those are unlikely in the El Nino base state we're in, however. Point being, the cold/dry conditions do stink but its for a reason. The ridging across the mid-section of the country into Canada is very persistent. Somehow, we need to break it.

docstox12 wrote:Wow, that SST map Doc posted above tells the tale of this storm's track.It's positioned right over the favorable warmer areas of the ocean.I remember reading one site's long range winter forecast that the mid Atlantic is the jackpot zone this year with a storm track set like this one to come this weekend.We have two strikes against us right now, these SST's and then ridging Frank mentions.Hope this is not set in concrete for the whole winter.

Partly cloudy, windy, cold 34 degrees.

syosnow94 wrote:

docstox12 wrote:Wow, that SST map Doc posted above tells the tale of this storm's track.It's positioned right over the favorable warmer areas of the ocean.I remember reading one site's long range winter forecast that the mid Atlantic is the jackpot zone this year with a storm track set like this one to come this weekend.We have two strikes against us right now, these SST's and then ridging Frank mentions.Hope this is not set in concrete for the whole winter.

Partly cloudy, windy, cold 34 degrees.

Not good doc. Not good

syosnow94 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Nice post Scott.

There are many factors that lead to a favorable pattern. Just because it is cold it does not mean the pattern favors snowstorms. You need an organized trough with energy consolidating at its base, or a polar jet stream positioned over us to get some clipper-like storms. Those are unlikely in the El Nino base state we're in, however. Point being, the cold/dry conditions do stink but its for a reason. The ridging across the mid-section of the country into Canada is very persistent. Somehow, we need to break it.

Great informative posts out of both you guys.  Frank to your point about the ridging in the mid-section.....weren’t forecasters able to see this sooner.  Everyone harped on the first 10 days of December but didn’t see the ridge or SS’Ts?

Beyond frustrating

Frank_Wx wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Nice post Scott.

There are many factors that lead to a favorable pattern. Just because it is cold it does not mean the pattern favors snowstorms. You need an organized trough with energy consolidating at its base, or a polar jet stream positioned over us to get some clipper-like storms. Those are unlikely in the El Nino base state we're in, however. Point being, the cold/dry conditions do stink but its for a reason. The ridging across the mid-section of the country into Canada is very persistent. Somehow, we need to break it.

Great informative posts out of both you guys.  Frank to your point about the ridging in the mid-section.....weren’t forecasters able to see this sooner.  Everyone harped on the first 10 days of December but didn’t see the ridge or SS’Ts?

Beyond frustrating

It depends who you use as your source. Speaking for me personally, I've stated my concerns regarding the ridge being too far east in the long range thread on a couple of occasions.

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t935p250-long-range-thread-17-0

Unfortunately I know Frank. I remember. With you being so busy and not
Posting as much as the old Days I’ve started listening a little more to others

I have a couple of posts from November stating the pattern isn't great (because of the ridge position). I also acknowledge the threat on the 10th but still mention it's not an ideal pattern.