Re: December 2018 Observations and Discussions

by **algae888** Thu Dec 13, 2018 7:37 am

Nice easterly fetch in the low and mid levels with warm air advection over top I think some places are going to be surprised today wouldn't be surprised to see three or four inches some areas north and west of the city

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Dec 13, 2018 7:41 am

Regarding Monday:

The 500mb energy associated with this weekend's rain storm (located SE of New England) and the energy across the Great Lakes trended in the wrong direction last night. There is no phasing, nor partial phasing, to allow snow to develop over the area. We need these two entities much closer together to have a chance of some snow Monday.

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 3 Gfs_z500_vort_us_17

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 3 Gfs_z500_vort_us_17

Granted I'm only looking at the GFS. I'm not sure what the EURO is thinking.

by **algae888** Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:31 am

A nice coating of snow picking up in intensity nice band coming into Western New Jersey now let's see if we can get an inch in my area and get on the board for December

by Guest Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:28 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Regarding Monday:

The 500mb energy associated with this weekend's rain storm (located SE of New England) and the energy across the Great Lakes trended in the wrong direction last night. There is no phasing, nor partial phasing, to allow snow to develop over the area. We need these two entities much closer together to have a chance of some snow Monday.

Granted I'm only looking at the GFS. I'm not sure what the EURO is thinking.

Of course it did. What a surprise More disappointment incoming. If this continues to trend badly in future model runs Not a good start to this DJF period. Things haven’t gone our way

by **Vinnydula** Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:26 am

Been snowing since 7am. Nothing is sticking. It's drying up once it hits the ground

by **algae888** Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:31 am

Vinnydula wrote:Been snowing since 7am. Nothing is sticking. It's drying up once it hits the ground

Yeah it's snowing pretty good here right now just a coating of snow only on the coldest surfaces

by **sroc4** Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:36 am

algae888 wrote:
Vinnydula wrote:Been snowing since 7am. Nothing is sticking. It's drying up once it hits the ground
Yeah it's snowing pretty good here right now just a coating of snow only on the coldest surfaces

Mood flakes?

by **docstox12** Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:17 pm

sroc4 wrote:
algae888 wrote:
Vinnydula wrote:Been snowing since 7am. Nothing is sticking. It's drying up once it hits the ground
Yeah it's snowing pretty good here right now just a coating of snow only on the coldest surfaces

Mood flakes?

That sums it up Doc.Underperformed here, NWS had 1 to 2 inches, and with the radar showing it's over, barely 1/4 inch.

by **Dunnzoo** Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:23 pm

Nice coating here on grass and roads with no traffic.

by **sroc4** Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:29 pm

I had a few flurries around 9 or so, but its a very light drizzle now.

by **weatherwatchermom** Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:30 pm

Not even a drop of mood drizzle..lol

by **SENJsnowman** Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:36 pm

docstox12 wrote:Underperformed here

The story of December? So far looks like it...

Still so early in the game, though...I'm way geeked for the next several weeks. And at least all this cold has the ground and air primed for when the pattern does come together. I'm even getting sucked in to the optimism for next week! Ha ha...just can't help myself.

by **Vinnydula** Thu Dec 13, 2018 2:55 pm

Heavy snow now. To bad it haven't stuck

by **Dunnzoo** Thu Dec 13, 2018 6:51 pm

Ended up with about .25" on grassy surfaces, stayed at about 31* all day. Had a light drizzle this afternoon mixed in with snow, so things are icing up a little.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Dec 14, 2018 8:07 am

Models cut back on rain totals significantly, especially for areas N&W of NYC. It appears the High Pressure to the north is keeping the low pressure further south. I'm wondering if these "southern sliders" storms become a trend this winter. That could be...uh...crappy.

But anyways, here is the NAM rain totals map:

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 3 Namconus_apcpn_neus_21

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 3 Namconus_apcpn_neus_21

And GFS:

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 3 Gfs_apcpn_neus_12

This is a far cry from the 2+ inch amounts shown yesterday. Also, Saturday is beginning to look like the BETTER day of the weekend. There is a chance it stops raining by early afternoon Saturday. Then rain will resume on Sunday from Wave #2. I also continue to watch for possible snow N&W of NYC Sunday night into Monday.

by **sroc4** Fri Dec 14, 2018 8:26 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Models cut back on rain totals significantly, especially for areas N&W of NYC. It appears the High Pressure to the north is keeping the low pressure further south. I'm wondering if these "southern sliders" storms become a trend this winter. That could be...uh...crappy.

.

Your not kidding. Recall the discussion a week ago in regards to the track of the system that dumped 1-2feet in parts of NC and Va.

Anyway not to be an even bigger Debbie downer, but when forecasting winter storms, and where LP is likely to track once reaching the coast looking at the SSTA can offer guidance as to where the tendencies of the LP track will be. The reasoning behind this idea is that where there are warmer than normal SSTA the tendencies for air to rise over the warmer anomalies increases which lowers pressures in these areas. A LP center developing off the coast or reaching the coast will often times follow that path of least resistance. ie: LP falls into the areas of "lower pressures out ahead of it typically along these warm SSTA. Looking at the current SSTA off the EC one can plainly see where the warmest SSTA are currently, and when comparing to the spread in the Euro Ensemble mean for this upcoming system one can also plainly see it appears to follow this rule quite nicely. Now this is a general rule, and there are many factors that will ultimately dictate the final track of any given system, but Doc this lends some credence to your concerns of a cold dry winter, esp for the areas N&W of the coastal plain, while areas to the south see the majority of the white gold IF the SSTA configuration along the EC were to persist as is.
December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 3 Cdas-sflux_ssta_atl_1

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 3 Cdas-sflux_ssta_atl_1

Hopefully this is more related to the pattern as a whole versus a true tale of things to come. And with the things to come in the strat etc the re shuffling of the deck will change this. I for one think it will, and I remain fairly confident overall, but I can def see how if we do miss on a system throughout this winter a southern miss would likely be favored.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Dec 14, 2018 8:32 am

Yes, great post from back then Scott.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Dec 14, 2018 11:17 am

N&W of NYC...NAM says hello

by **jmanley32** Fri Dec 14, 2018 12:26 pm

Wow 12km nam lays down 4 to 8 for the areas even just nw of NYC including Westchester. This would be great give me a 3 day weekend plz.

by **docstox12** Fri Dec 14, 2018 1:19 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:N&W of NYC...NAM says hello

Now THIS would be a very pleasant surprise and get some snow OTG to exponentially increase the Holiday mood! A good winter has these surprises baked in the cake, let's hope it comes!

Cloudy, raw getting staged for some rain.

by **sroc4** Fri Dec 14, 2018 1:42 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:EURO tipped considerably to the NAM, although it isn’t quite ready to fully pull the trigger........yet. Don’t worry, though, because I expect it to
Hey rb any chance the coast gets into some of this? Especially if we continue the recent southerly shifts in storms as the event draws closer!

by **rb924119** Fri Dec 14, 2018 2:08 pm

Unfortunately, syo, I think I-95 is the cutoff for any measurable frozen precipitation. :/

by **amugs** Fri Dec 14, 2018 2:34 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Wow 12km nam lays down 4 to 8 for the areas even just nw of NYC including Westchester. This would be great give me a 3 day weekend plz.

JMAN a lot of that is sleet at this time with some snow on the backened for us areas- ice ice baby and mixed precip be contend there.
I do expect it come around for us N & W.

by **rb924119** Fri Dec 14, 2018 2:44 pm

EPS!!!!!!

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 3 7384b910

Image courtesy of Allsnow on another forum. If I had time to draw a forecast, this would be pretty darn close to what I think.

by **amugs** Fri Dec 14, 2018 2:57 pm

That is a good look for a storm that was prigged to be a soaker up to Buffalo, see what an igloo to our North can do with some storm dynamics.
Need a 30 mile shift SE if possible and many here dance in the white gold.

by **jmanley32** Fri Dec 14, 2018 4:05 pm

Not looking forward to an ice storm but if I don't have go work Monday I don't care lol

by Guest Fri Dec 14, 2018 5:08 pm

rb924119 wrote:EPS!!!!!!

Image courtesy of Allsnow on another forum. If I had time to draw a forecast, this would be pretty darn close to what I think.

Yes I know this was supposed to be rain and now maybe some
N and W areas may see some
Frozen BUT doesn’t this just show 1-3” for the majority of our board at most? If so why the excitement?

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