Re: JAN 12th-13th 2019 Snow threat

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** on Thu Jan 10, 2019 7:39 am

@billg315 wrote:This storm is shaping up just as I started to suspect yesterday morning: A DC to AC Special. I still think we see some snow here but very light with SNJ getting accumulations. I remember as a kid walking to school one day in flurries with light snow coating the ground while the news reported on the 12-18” of snow falling heavily in Atlantic City. Not sure the South Jersey coast will do THAT well but it is the best place to be Sunday night to see something significant from this. I’ll keep hoping for that last minute shift north in the next 24-48 hours but for now looks like there will be shoveling at my shorehouse and sweeping at mine.

Bill keep hoping for that Sunday shift north, and also keep hoping for that Sunday night visit from Marissa Miller, and that Sunday night call from Sophia Vegara, and the Sunday afternoon visit from publishers clearinghouse to hand you your six foot long check for 10 million dollars, they all have about an equal chance of actually happening.

by **Frank_Wx** on Thu Jan 10, 2019 7:55 am

We have seen storms either suppressed or cut to our west. Its been that type of winter.

I thought this storm had a real chance - by far of all storms this winter at least - but it is not going to work out. Central NJ could still see a coating to 1 inch of high ratio snow, and parts of SNJ, including the shore, could see an inch or more depending on what happens with the coastal developing late Sunday.

But this will not be a widespread significant snowfall. Kudos to Ray for recognizing the pattern and calling for a suppressed storm.

by Guest on Thu Jan 10, 2019 8:06 am

Since Scott quoted himself I’ll quote myself from Tursday Morning ....

JAN 12th-13th 2019 Snow threat - Page 4 A45d2510

by **billg315** on Thu Jan 10, 2019 8:49 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@billg315 wrote:This storm is shaping up just as I started to suspect yesterday morning: A DC to AC Special. I still think we see some snow here but very light with SNJ getting accumulations. I remember as a kid walking to school one day in flurries with light snow coating the ground while the news reported on the 12-18” of snow falling heavily in Atlantic City. Not sure the South Jersey coast will do THAT well but it is the best place to be Sunday night to see something significant from this. I’ll keep hoping for that last minute shift north in the next 24-48 hours but for now looks like there will be shoveling at my shorehouse and sweeping at mine.

Bill keep hoping for that Sunday shift north, and also keep hoping for that Sunday night visit from Marissa Miller, and that Sunday night call from Sophia Vegara, and the Sunday afternoon visit from publishers clearinghouse to hand you your six foot long check for 10 million dollars, they all have about an equal chance of actually happening.

CP, while I agree those things are equally unlikely to happen . . . these ideas in my head will now make for a very exciting Saturday night sleep. Laughing

by **mikeypizano** on Thu Jan 10, 2019 8:50 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:We have seen storms either suppressed or cut to our west. Its been that type of winter.

I thought this storm had a real chance - by far of all storms this winter at least - but it is not going to work out. Central NJ could still see a coating to 1 inch of high ratio snow, and parts of SNJ, including the shore, could see an inch or more depending on what happens with the coastal developing late Sunday.

But this will not be a widespread significant snowfall. Kudos to Ray for recognizing the pattern and calling for a suppressed storm.

I didn't think it had a snowballs chance in hell, its that kind of year. I am over it. I look forward to the epic warmth that February has been bringing us lately.

by SENJsnowman on Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:32 am

Fact is, latest runs still looking good from about I-195 on south. Last runs verbatim approach Godzilla levels for some members of this board (big IF ratios are 15-25:1).

00z gfs run started...i'm still curious.

by SENJsnowman on Thu Jan 10, 2019 11:06 am

Actually, the facts according to the 12z GFS are what you'd expect. Not happening. The atmosphere just does not want to snow.

This run takes the totals away from MD and VA. Only above 4-5 inches at elevations.

by SENJsnowman on Thu Jan 10, 2019 11:12 am

On second thought, we're still 4 full days away (Sun pm into Monday)...not even in the sr range yet, really. I'll stick it out for another day I guess. The wiper effect has been going crazy from C NJ on south and the good runs still have 8-10" easy (at 15:1) north thru Ocean Co.

by larryrock72 on Thu Jan 10, 2019 12:51 pm

SENJsnowman...I could see us Ocean County guys with 2 or 3 inches we should have a better idea by tomorrow am.

by **docstox12** on Thu Jan 10, 2019 12:58 pm

@larryrock72 wrote:SENJsnowman...I could see us Ocean County guys with 2 or 3 inches we should have a better idea by tomorrow am.

I hope the S and E crew does get that! At least somebody in our region will get some accumulating snow.Good luck guys and gals!

by **Grselig** on Thu Jan 10, 2019 1:16 pm

@docstox12 wrote:
@larryrock72 wrote:SENJsnowman...I could see us Ocean County guys with 2 or 3 inches we should have a better idea by tomorrow am.

I hope the S and E crew does get that! At least somebody in our region will get some accumulating snow.Good luck guys and gals!

Classy statement. I agree. Hope they get something good out of it!!

by SENJsnowman on Thu Jan 10, 2019 1:29 pm

That’s just doc being doc. And we have a shot down here for a mothra hit. GFS and CMC both showed 4-6” at 10:1 as recently as 00z. That’s a legitimate cause for at least a glimmer of hope.

My own personal SCI for Ocean county at 1-2”: 50%. At >3-4”: 20%

by **Grselig** on Thu Jan 10, 2019 1:37 pm

@SENJsnowman wrote:That’s just doc being doc. And we have a shot down here for a mothra hit. GFS and CMC both showed 4-6” at 10:1 as recently as 00z. That’s a legitimate cause for at least a glimmer of hope.

My own personal SCI for Ocean county at 1-2”: 50%. At >3-4”: 20%

I'm rooting for you. Good things do happen. I don't think I'm in the game, but hopefully you get a win this weekend and maybe next week we can manage something substantial.

by **docstox12** on Thu Jan 10, 2019 1:40 pm

I would love to have an area wide, from the S and E crew and LI crew, out to west to Aresian and rb, and up north to Hyde 20 incher plus so this board lights up like a Christmas tree with fun snowstorm posts.

by **amugs** on Thu Jan 10, 2019 2:31 pm

@docstox12 wrote:I would love to have an area wide, from the S and E crew and LI crew, out to west to Aresian and rb, and up north to Hyde 20 incher plus so this board lights up like a Christmas tree with fun snowstorm posts.

That would be great indeed - March is when these occur.
Shut the board down until then and close this threat its done - the PV Lobe shreds out the system and then presses hard rb nailed it
JAN 12th-13th 2019 Snow threat - Page 4 Gfs_z500_vort_us_13

JAN 12th-13th 2019 Snow threat - Page 4 Gfs_z500_vort_us_13

by SENJsnowman on Thu Jan 10, 2019 2:39 pm

Heard that Mugs! Time to go ‘bleed’ a while...

by **docstox12** on Thu Jan 10, 2019 2:50 pm

@amugs wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:I would love to have an area wide, from the S and E crew and LI crew, out to west to Aresian and rb, and up north to Hyde 20 incher plus so this board lights up like a Christmas tree with fun snowstorm posts.

That would be great indeed - March is when these occur.
Shut the board down until then and close this threat its done - the PV Lobe shreds out the system and then presses hard rb nailed it

Credit is due rb he was steadfast in downplaying this one days ago.

by heehaw453 on Thu Jan 10, 2019 2:54 pm

Would we have had yet another cutter and 40+ degree temperatures w/out the Northern stream interference? Not sure I could have taken another 1" rain and 42 degrees.

by **jimv45** on Thu Jan 10, 2019 3:03 pm

Yea doc Rb was on this! But lets hope he is right on what's to come, he has been very high and very confident, so hope is there.

by **jmanley32** on Thu Jan 10, 2019 5:38 pm

What a surprise kudos to rb but I don't even really check in much anymore cuz we aren't going to see another snowstorm I'm pretty sure. Nov. Was it. See you all in the spring. Which by the way after this next warm up will be less than 2 months away. Really I consider march to be when spring usually starts.

by **jmanley32** on Thu Jan 10, 2019 5:41 pm

Hilarious local weather actually saying possibly a inch or two NYC area. What are they on?

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** on Thu Jan 10, 2019 5:49 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:What a surprise kudos to rb but I don't even really check in much anymore cuz we aren't going to see another snowstorm I'm pretty sure. Nov. Was it. See you all in the spring. Which by the way after this next warm up will be less than 2 months away. Really I consider march to be when spring usually starts.

3 of the last 4 years there's been more snow in NYC in March than in any of the other winter months.

You consider that spring?

by **billg315** on Thu Jan 10, 2019 5:57 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Hilarious local weather actually saying possibly a inch or two NYC area. What are they on?

I think the GFS shows several hours of over-running snow ahead of the wave getting to and moving off the coast. They’re probably counting on that and with the very cold temps this weekend a high-ratio snow. I’m skeptical and still think a coating to an inch is the best we’ll do. But that’s got to be what they’re looking at.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** on Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:11 pm

The silence is deafening, and sums up everything.

by **rb924119** on Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:26 am

My best guess for this system is anywhere north of approximately D.C./Baltimore latiude will see a dusting to 2". See the Long Range Thread for better news Wink